Kunpeng Project
Produced by |Bullet Finance.
Author |Mandarin.
Edit |Lightning.
American Editor |Qianqian.
Audit |Ode.
Since December, the news that the "first share of masks" has been ** has been spread frequently.
According to the ** Star, on December 20, northbound funds increased their holdings by 4,2000 shares of Stable Medical. However, in the past 5 trading days, 2 days of northbound funds have been received by Robust Medical, with a cumulative net of 4350,000 shares. In the past 20 trading days, there have been 9 days of northbound funds**, with a cumulative net of **27140,000 shares.
In contrast, the ** of Shenzhen Stock Connect is more ferocious. Oriental Fortune said that on December 7, Robust Medical was approved by the Shenzhen Stock Connect **5280,000 shares, which have been listed by Shenzhen Stock Connect for 4 consecutive days, totaling 76350,000 shares. A week later, SZSE continued to ** Stable Medical 3990,000 shares.
Although the overall shareholding is not large, it can also be seen that the market has a wait-and-see sentiment towards robust medical care. In fact, in the nearly a year since the return to normalcy, those companies that rely on epidemic prevention products to grow rapidly have attracted much attention.
Among the players, Robust Medical's performance can be called typical. First, it has received dividends as the "first share of masks", and its performance has increased significantly during the cycleSecond, after the tide recedes, its core performance indicators have declined sharply, although there are many new layouts, but the current new business can not support half of the sky, and the company is facing unprecedented challenges.
Affected by the epidemic, the demand for infection protection equipment has increased significantly. According to the financial report data, from 2020 to 2022, the performance of Robust Medical has achieved rapid growth, with revenue of 1253.4 billion yuan, 803.7 billion and 1135.1 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 381 billion yuan, 123.9 billion and 165.1 billion yuan. It can be seen that in the past three years, Robust Medical has enjoyed the most dividends in 2020, and since then there has been a decline to varying degrees.
In 2023, with the effective prevention and control of public health events, the market demand for infection prevention and control supplies has decreased, and the performance of Robust Medical has begun to "weaken" on a large scale.
How glorious the past three years are, how miserable the present. At this time, Robust Medical is facing a decline in revenue and profit, continuous destocking pressure, and new business expansion has not yet achieved results. It's no wonder that there is a wait-and-see mood in the market.
For Robust Medical, 2023 can be called a "year pass".
For the performance report of Robust Medical in the first three quarters, the consensus of many analysts is:It is still in the throes of finding a new way out.
This is clearly reflected in the core performance data. According to the financial report data for the first three quarters of 2023, during the reporting period, Robust Medical's revenue was 601 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2135%；Net profit attributable to the parent company 214.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7178%；Non-net profit was 62.1 billion yuan, down 45 percent year-on-year95%；Net cash flow from operating activities was 22.2 billion yuan, down 81 percent year-on-year60%。
On a quarterly basis, Robust Medical achieved revenue of 174.4 billion yuan, down 2982%；Net profit attributable to the parent company 146.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31015%；Deduct non-net profit of 7084720,000 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7841%。
For the "increase" part of the financial report, Robust Medical explained that it was mainly due to the increase in the income from the disposal of assets of urban renewal projects.
The "decline" is due to the decrease in sales revenue of infection protection products in the medical sector and the decline in gross profit margin caused by changes in the structure of medical products. Among them, the operating income of medical consumables, which accounts for about half of the revenue, is 300.2 billion yuan, down 3832%。According to public information, the products of its medical consumables business mainly cover infection protection, health and personal care, wound care and protection, high-end wound consumables and surgical consumables.
As for the decline in performance, Robust Medical believes that it is mainly due to the decrease in demand for infection protection and health and personal care products in the market after the epidemic, such as masks, protective clothing, alcohol disinfection tablets, etc. These two types of products have been the majority of the company's revenue in the past three years. But in the first half of this year, the total revenue of the above two types of products was 85.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 648%, accounting for about 20% of the revenue in the same period.
Figure: Stable Medical Official Website).
The sluggish sales caused by the precipitous reduction in market demand are still expected by the outside world. However, it should be noted that there has been a surge in the production volume of Robust Medical before, so there has been a lot of destocking pressure.
According to the financial report data, in 2022, Robust Medical will produce a total of 60 masks600 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of **6452%；Production of protective clothing 4975970,000 pieces, a year-on-year increase of **23493%。In the first half of this year, Robust Medical's inventory reached 9200 million yuan, accounting for 65% of the inventory25%。And the pressure is rising. By the third quarter, its inventory had surged to 146.5 billion yuan.
This makes the outside world particularly puzzled, in the second quarter of this year, it has entered normalization, why the inventory of the above products of Robust Medical still increased by 54.5 billion yuan?During the epidemic prevention period, the above products were in great demand, and the sales volume of related companies were very considerable, but after returning to normalcy, why is there such a large inventory increase?
The current reality is that Robust Medical is facing extremely severe pressure to clear inventory.
In this regard, Wenwen Medical has said that it has done some impairment and treatment of epidemic prevention products in the third quarter, and it is expected to complete the last batch of cleanup in the fourth quarter, and strive not to bring the impact to next year. This also means that in the fourth quarter of this year, clearing inventory will become the top priority of Robust Medical.
And to destock, it is bound to require channel efforts. Referring to the situation in the first three quarters of this year, the revenue of its B-end and C-end channels accounted for 38 respectively07% and 2648%。Price reduction and investment will be a large expense, which will most likely affect the performance of core data such as operating and gross profit margin in the fourth quarter.
At the same time, it should be noted that the reduction in operating cash flow of Robust Medical has been huge. The data shows that in 2023, its operating cash flow will be 22.2 billion yuan, which is 120.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 8162%。
For such fluctuations, Robust Medical said that there are three reasons: first, the decrease in sales revenue in the current period has reduced the payment received;Second, at the end of 2022, there were more advance receipts for epidemic prevention products, so the cash received from the sale of goods in the current period decreased compared with the same period last yearThird, the performance in 2022 was better, and more taxes and bonuses payable were paid in the current period, so the cash paid for operating activities in the current period was more than the same period last year. For the fourth quarter, operating cash flow is expected to improve. The company will control receivables and payables to increase the company's operating cash flow.
In this regard, Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, said, "Robust Medical's cash flow fell by 81 percent this year6% indicates that the company is currently facing cash flow pressure. Although the company explained the reasons at the earnings briefing, it does not mean that these reasons are unavoidable. ”
To sum up, the overall situation of Robust Medical in 2023 is not optimistic, with both revenue and profit declining, huge pressure on destocking, and a sharp decrease in cash flow.
Although through continuous innovation and continuous expansion of industrial boundaries, the outside world's perception of robust medical care is more in the main business of "medical care". It can be said that medical care has always been its basic plate. Therefore, when the medical consumables business, which has contributed to the vast majority of revenue for many years, has declined so much that it affects the fundamentals, a series of "self-help" of Robust Medical will naturally kick off.
After all, in addition to the urgent task of clearing inventory, Robust Medical urgently needs to find a second or even third growth curve that can support performance growth.
In fact, as early as 2022, Robust Medical has been actively deploying. In the second quarter of 2022, it spent more than 1.8 billion yuan in 2 months to successively acquire three companies, Longtai Medical, Hunan Ping An Medical Equipment Technology *** and Guilin Latex, and obtained three companies respectively. 5528% and 100% equity.
Such an operation can be described as a big deal, because in 2021 before its acquisition, Robust Medical's annual net profit was only 123.9 billion yuan.
With the completion of the acquisition at a large price, Robust Medical's business territory has been expanded to the fields of puncture products, latex products, and high-end wound dressings. At that time, many analysts said that Wenwen Medical's move was to find a new growth point for the company.
Figure: Stable Medical Official Website).
However, at present, in addition to the performance effect of high-end dressings, the other two have not improved. According to public data, in the first half of this year, the revenue of Wenwen Medical's high-end wound dressing products was 28.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7333%。The growth rate is acceptable, but in terms of the company's overall revenue, the contribution is limited.
Of course, Robust Medical's efforts in the fundamentals will not stop there. In August this year, at the investor relations event held by Wenwen Medical, Wenwen Medical said that its operating room consumables business increased year-on-year. One of the reasons is the merger and acquisition factor, Guilin Latex and Junjian Medical two mergers and acquisitions brought a high degree of integration effect, in the first half of the year surgical gloves and disposable surgical kit products have a significant growth;On the other hand, with the increase in the number of hospital admissions and the full recovery of diagnosis and treatment, the number of surgeries in the hospital has increased significantly, which has also led to the growth of sales of disposable surgical kits.
In addition to acquisitions, Robust Hospital is deploying new areas through its own strength. In November this year, Robust Medical announced that it had partially entered the medical beauty track, such as scars, acne patches, saline cleaning solutions and other products, but the current related revenue accounts for a relatively small amount.
Passive may be beaten", for the current robust medical care, active is a good thing, but when the effect will be achieved, is still inconclusive.
For a long time, the consumer sector has also been a major revenue for Robust Medical**. In 2009, Shenzhen Cotton Times Technology, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wenwen Medical, was established, taking the strategic step of "medicine close to life, cotton care for health".
After more than 10 years of development, the all-cotton era still takes cotton as the core, developing more than 150 categories, covering more than 30,000 SKUs, and has become a major revenue after the medical consumables sector.
The financial report data for the first three quarters of this year shows that this section contributed 29The revenue of 600 million yuan, accounting for nearly half, mainly covers dry and wet cotton soft towels, sanitary napkins, home clothes and other textile products.
Cotton Times is oriented to the mid-to-high-end maternal and infant market, and stores are the main channels for its infant and child sales. Therefore, the expansion of offline channels has always been the top priority of Robust Medical. Even though the revenue of the all-cotton era is growing, the sales of offline stores are sluggish.
Figure Cotton Times official website).
Taking the data at the end of 2022 as an example, the number of offline stores in the cotton era is 340 (including 314 directly operated stores and 26 franchised stores), 45 new stores were opened during the year, and 25 inefficient and loss-making stores were closed. As of the third quarter of this year, the latest data shows that there are 385 offline stores in Cotton Times, of which there was a net increase of 32 in the third quarter.
It is normal for consumer goods to be affected by the environment, and the cotton era is no exception. Judging from the data of the cotton era in the past four years, from 2019 to 2022, the cotton era achieved operating income of 3 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, 4.1 billion yuan and 40 yuan respectively500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of % and -12%。
Therefore, if you look at the first three quarters of this year alone, 29The revenue of 600 million yuan is not a lot, but when it is placed in a longer time period, the growth dilemma of the cotton era is also exposed.
On the other hand, like other C-end products, the key to the performance of the cotton era is also marketing. Since the beginning of this year, Robust Medical has been making continuous moves in marketing, and the cost is also in line with it.
Taking the third quarter of this year as an example, the sales expenses of Robust Medical were 144.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 325%。According to Robust Medical, its total sales expenses decreased slightly from the previous quarter, and the increase in the sales expense ratio was mainly due to the revenue of the consumer goods segment decreased by about 200 million yuan from the previous quarter.
In addition, for the Double 11 promotion, the company made some preliminary marketing investment in the third quarter. For example, on the occasion of the opening of the Hangzhou Asian Games, Robust Medical invited Olympic champion Wu Minxia to link the brand live broadcast. On October 14, brand spokesperson Guo Jingjing held an offline meeting. On October 18, it was officially announced that Zhao Liying was the global spokesperson of home textiles and home clothing.
Continuous investment in marketing and the use of well-known and influential spokespersons to bring brand enhancement and performance growth to the company are the choices that brands that have reached a certain stage of development will make. However, there is no conclusive jury about the relationship between brand image building and performance improvement. Of course, this move also reflects the performance anxiety of the cotton era to some extent.
There is also performance anxiety as well as Shun Jierou, an old opponent in the cotton era. In the past few years, Zhongshun Jierou's revenue has maintained double-digit growth, and the single-quarter revenue growth rate has also hit a good record of 30%. But in the first three quarters of 2023, its revenue was 682.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1160%。
It is clear that the industry as a whole is weakening. At this time, it is not easy to achieve the goal of stable medical care that hopes to use the consumer sector to support the business for half a day.
Becoming a dividend, trapped in the tide to exit. The main business is sluggish, and the second curve is facing a huge industry ceiling, and in the difficult year of 2023, every step of Robust Medical is important. It is worth affirming that it is looking for the first.
Second, the positive layout of the third curve has long been an example for the industry. But in the end, it is difficult to say whether it will be able to hold up the future.
The title picture in the article comes from: Camera.com, based on the VRF protocol.