1.At the index level, today's ** has broken the hope of bottoming that has been accumulated with great difficulty.
Just say that the Shanghai Composite Index last Thursday's yang line is barely a bottom reversal of the middle yang line, but today's ** has broken through half of this line, showing that the bulls are vulnerable.
The current situation is either a top-level direct shouting like this year's 724 and last year's 316, or it can only be boiled slowly.
But don't cut the meat in the huge panic and torment at this stage, to put it mildly, after a year, the ** can rise back, you try your best, it may not be as good as the result of lying flat.
2.Recently, it has been reported intensively that a number of large overseas multinational investment banks are long A-shares, and it is recommended to seize the opportunity to overshoot next year.
What is more interesting is that it also includes Morgan Stanley, which "sings and crashes" A-shares to bring about this round of half-year bear market.
This quote from Morgan Stanley is widely quoted: "The target point of the CSI 300 Index at the end of 2024 is 3850 points". According to the current point, it can rise by 15%.
Is it so easy for big shorts to turn back?Later, I found the original text of Morgan Stanley's outlook for the U.S.-China economy in 2024 in November:
It seems that "old friends of the Chinese" such as Goldman Sachs and Nomura are cuter
3.During this period of time, the concept of A-share plate rotation, it was almost impossible to see it, before it was a hot topic to speculate for two or three days, and then it became a good thing to speculate for a day, and today it actually fried phosphorus chemical industry and coal.
Phosphorus chemical industry is a part of the lithium battery industry chain, in recent times, lithium carbonate fell to the point of one-third of the industry companies in the loss, in the intervention of the exchange, finally a bit of a bottom reversal meaning, the capital should be in the Bo this amount of advance.
If you play **, lithium carbonate in the next month or two, carefully looking for long opportunities in the band, should be a good way to play.
However, for **, because the production capacity problem is not solved so quickly, the overall market sentiment is sluggish, and the liquidity is insufficient, there is little hope for the new energy line to suddenly reverse at the bottom.
4.During this time, many people were scolding the refinancing. To be honest, refinancing is not the root of this bear market, but it has certainly played a role in fueling the fire.
Many institutions are just posting some official articles, saying that they want to support "stabilizing the capital market and enhancing investor confidence", and at the same time use short-selling tools to make a lot of "national trouble".
South Korea has banned short-selling altogether, and some experts have been cynical. Now less than two months have passed, and people's *** has increased by 11 percentage points. Where to reason?
5.Ren Zeping and CITIC issued an article on the U.S. economy next year almost at the same time: CITIC made it clear that the U.S. economy will go down;Ren Zeping's article is much more roundabout.
However, Ren Zeming made it clear that the U.S. economy would have a soft landingThe Fed will cut interest rates;Inflation is likely to pick up, but this is due to strong consumer spending and a strong labor market. (Is this a good thing or a bad thing?)）
In addition, Ren Zeping said that the balance sheet of the household sector is healthy and has not been troubled by high interest rates, which is very different from some reports that high interest rates in the United States have hit the economy and consumption hard.
Ren Zeping also said: The wealth effect brought about by the appreciation of financial assets (** and non-financial assets (real estate) in the residential sector has an obvious supporting effect on consumption.
Meaning, U.S. housing prices**, so even high interest rates don't affect consumption.
To be honest, many people didn't even read Lao Ren's article, and directly said "You don't need to read it to know that it is written about American pills", which really wronged him.
6.Sister Mu bought 1.71 million shares of LY last week, and she had been in this company before.
LY is the parent company of LINE (the Japanese version of WeChat) and Yahoo, and the operation of Sister Wood can be seen as optimistic about the future of Japanese technology stocks, or at least the future of Japanese technology stocks. For reference.
7.Southeast Asian tech ETFs were bought up, and funds were crazy to buy, and the ETF premium exceeded 5%.
The so-called premium is, in fact, these ** are ** 100, but in China to buy through ETFs, people give ** 105 **.
The reason is that the capital is optimistic about the transfer of the industrial chain, the economic development of Southeast Asia, and the explosion of the Internet technology industry that is still in its infancy, just like China before.
The embarrassing thing is that China's Internet technology companies once had great global influence, and TikTok, Tmall, and the sharing economy have all influenced the world, and they were originally very promising to challenge the status of the United States.
As a result, they were surrounded and suppressed outside, and they were also at home. To this day, the stock price has fallen into a soaring position, and even the small countries in Southeast Asia cannot compare. A sigh.
8.Let's say an innocuous little thing: this year's Chinese New Year's Eve is not a legal holiday, but the Shanghai and Shenzhen North Stock Exchanges just announced that they are closed for Chinese New Year's Eve.
Some people say that this is to let shareholders lose one less day... This is, of course, a joke. What I think is: It's better for public institutions to have an establishment
The above views are personal and not investment advice;Please refer to it with caution and thanks for reading.
Disclaimer: Under no circumstances does the information or opinions expressed in this article constitute investment advice to any person.
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