If every Chinese were to consume paper at the current rate in the United States, by 2030, 14600 million Chinese need to use twice the world's annual paper production. In this way, the world's forests are gone. —A 2008 American environmentalist.
Is there a problem with the logic?No problem. But standing in 2023, it is already clear that the above fears will not become a reality. First of all, by 2030, we will most likely not have 14With so many 600 million people, the total population of our country will begin to turn around in 2022;Secondly, in addition to wood pulp, there are also straw pulp and waste pulp, and in 2022, China's waste pulp will account for 57% of the total pulp consumption;Last but not least, the digital era is accelerating due to technological progress, and the amount of paper used in more and more fields is also declining rapidly, such as media, literature, office, etc. Pessimists easily earn reputation, but they can't win the future. In the history of mankind, there have been rounds of pessimistic prophecies that can destroy the world, all of which have received great attention, but all of them are wrong without exception. The reason is that pessimistic logical reasoning is mostly based on linear extrapolations of the past and the present, while future evolution is non-linear and full of accidents and accidents. Like evolution, these good factors in the accident and accident will be identified and amplified, and human society will continue to prosper and move forward, avoiding the fate of prophesied destruction. In "The Rational Optimist," author Matt Ridley once commented that every 10 years or so, a new wave of pessimists emerges to stir up the storm and assert that they stand on the balance of the levers of history. Even in the 50 years from 1875 to 1925, new things such as electricity, automobiles, typewriters, movies, universities, indoor toilets, and vaccines greatly improved the lives of Europeans, but many European scholars were still obsessed with the prophecies of recession, depravity, and disaster. Evidence from biology suggests that pessimistic genes are more common than optimistic genes. Only 20% of people have a dominant serotonin transporter long gene, and people with this gene are born to look on the bright side. Evidence from psychology shows that the vast majority of people are risk-averse, and that a dollar loss needs to be compensated for with twice the gain. Perhaps, in the process of human evolution, the genes that are optimistic by nature are more likely to be eliminated by the harsh living environment, so what our ancestors inherited to us is mainly pessimistic genes. After all, in the face of survival, what is the point of being disappointed by pessimistic expectations?Even if you misjudge 10 times, as long as you get it right once, it's enough. ButWhen it comes to the investment field, the pessimistic gene has become a hindrance rather than a help. Because in the medium and long term, the economy is sustained, **is sustained**, and time is on the side of the optimists. The long-term is the best, and the short-term is twists and turns. Optimistic investors can resist short-term twists and turns by relying on long-term optimismPessimistic investors may choose to get off at the bottom of each bear market and fall before dawn. Speaking of which, I believe that many investors are going to talk about the data of the past two years. Admittedly, over the past two years, pessimistic investors have better protected their wallets, while optimistic investors have been locked in the middle of the pack time and time again. There are also many investors who are constantly switching between optimism and pessimism, and after being repeatedly hit by the market, they are now concentrated on the pessimistic side. Recently, I've often wondered if the market valuation is so low, who is still selling in this position?In the beginning, I concluded that there were all sorts of forced sellers. Later, I found out that it may be much more than that, it is that most people are choosing to either sell or wait and see, pessimistic and sell, which has become a trend and "right" to some extent. In the field of investment, it is precisely necessary to be wary of all kinds of "trends" and "correctness". Mass consensus can rarely become a money-making **, because consensus will push the valuation to the extreme, whether it is extremely overvalued or extremely undervalued, and conformity is wrong at this time. At this stage, pessimism is becoming a trend. Under this trend, contrarianism is the right operation. As Howard Marks said, ".Widespread negative opinion minimizes the risk because all optimism is removed。"Therefore, there is no need to use the ** of the past two years to justify pessimism. It is precisely because of the bad performance of the past two years that pessimism has become the consensus of investors, and the risks contained in investment have been continuously reduced, and the cost performance has become higher and higher. Investment should be forward-looking and long-term. In the long run, the cycle is always the last. When a trend lasts for a long time, a reversal becomes the only inevitability. 
Many times, it is difficult to tell when a trend is reversing or what exactly causes a trend to reverse. The only thing investors can do is to remain vigilant, adjust their behavior, and refuse to follow the wrong behavior caused by the market consensus. If you dare to operate against the trend, it is only a matter of time before you make money. At this moment, be bold and be an optimist![Note: The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.] In any case, the information or opinions expressed herein are for an exchange of views only and do not constitute investment advice to any person. 】
This article was originally written by *** Xue Hongyan Whispering, the author is Xue Hongyan, vice president of Xingtu Financial Research Institute