According to the International Monetary Organization, three years later in 2026, the world's top three economies will be the United States, China and India, and the time for India to reach the third place in the world is greatly advancedHello everyone, welcome to today's Tianxia Ping Shuo program.
According to the performance of the first three quarters of 2023, the GDP of the United States is about 20 trillion US dollars, China is slightly more than 13 trillion US dollars, and India is relatively far from the first two countries, about 2.6 trillion US dollars. ButThe economy grew at 71%, up from 25% and 5 in China2%
This shows that India is among the top 10 or even top 20 economies, and among the economies with relatively large aggregates, its economic growth rate is relatively fast and the degree of economic activity is relatively high.
The English translation of India was changed to "bharat", and the picture shows Indian Prime Minister Modi attending the G20 summit Then, India, as a start-up economy, is not the same as China in the 90s and 00s of the last century.
At that time, China's economic growth was driven by investment and exports, and large-scale domestic investment, coupled with exports to developed markets such as the United States and Europe, was exported through investment.
And India is through investment plus consumption, that isIn terms of boosting domestic consumption and mobilizing domestic potential, India may be at the forefront of China in the same period
Therefore, this thing is more worthy of our interpretation and attention. Because of China's growth model, investment and export should depend on the international market and the sky. The outlook for the global economy is sluggish, and foreign relations are not stable.
If you encounter the global economic crisis in 2008 and the unstable Sino-US war relations after 2018, then China's investment and export model may face challenges. Therefore, we are vigorously promoting the Belt and Road Initiative, broadening export channels, in addition to developed countries, we are also expanding exports to Belt and Road countries.
Argentina was elected** Milley, but you think that the Belt and Road countries are basically developing countries, and the extremes are like Argentina, and there may be a 180-degree turn in changing the ** policy, so the risk of the Belt and Road countries is relatively high at present. The consumption power of China's domestic market is curbed, and the development of the deformed real estate market has curbed the investment and consumption power of domestic residents.
Therefore, compared with China in the 1990s and 00s at the same time, India's economic development, at present, has more domestic demand and less sensitivity to the international environment.
He relied on his status as the world's most populous country, 14The size of 200 million people, and the current higher population growth in the number of heBased on the development model of domestic consumption, it is expected to be able to persist and maintain for a long time。It is less sensitive to the international environment than China.
Nowadays, under the so-called de-sinicization policy of developed countries, many investors from the United States, Europe and Japan have also deliberately switched from China to India, typical of Apple.
Apple, India's semiconductor factory, is a symbolic, leading high-tech enterprise, from 2021 to this year, in shortIn two years, iPhone production in India has increased from 1% of the world's to 7% of the world's。India is expected to produce 25% of the world's iPhones by 2025.
You must know that most of the previous iPhones were produced by Chinese companies, and the same was true for Foxconn.
What are India's shortcomings?It is about infrastructure construction, so India has also launched a comprehensive infrastructure plan including the so-called airports, highways, and railways.
It is said that India's infrastructure projects will be 1. per year, GDP of 1About 7%, investment in infrastructure construction, so India also knows his weaknesses, his logistics foundation is not good, so he must vigorously develop and make up for these shortcomings.
Through these, Chinese mobile phone brands on the streets of India can still draw two deterministic conclusions. First, is India on the rise?Is India's development a temporary growth or a long-term process of rise?
At present, it is judged to be a long-term, medium- and long-term relatively stable and upward development processIndia's growth is not determined by the last three or five years, but by the next two or three decades
Like China in the past two or three decades, India will change the political landscape of the world
Because India is large, has a large population and economic scale, a large ceiling, and great potential, India is not comparable to the rise of Japan during the Cold War in the last century.
The rise of China and India, which probably belong to the same level, is capable of changing the world order.
Canada accuses India of assassinating Sikh leader The second point, will India become a member of the West?No.
Through the murder of the so-called Sikh leader of the United States and Canada and India, as well as the diplomatic dispute between the two sides in the separatist incident, you can see that as an ancient civilization with a history of 5,000 years, India's bottom line is that it cannot stand with the West.
Until 2050, India will be the target of competition between China and the WestTherefore, he is in a relatively good international strategic environment and is in a good position.
Just like China in the 80s of the last century, China was co-opted by the United States and the Soviet Union, and now India, like China in the past, is in an environment where the United States and China are co-opted.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with the United States ** Biden (right) So what does India's eventual rise depend on?I think he also has to rely on working with China. Because your GDP grows, after two or three times, are you still the object of the United States?
If in 20 or 30 years, China's GDP will be 40 trillion yuan, and India's GDP will reach 20 trillion yuan, as such a large economy, as an oriental country with a long history of civilization and ancient country, will it still be the object of the West's wooing?Not necessarily.
Now it's because the strength hasn't reached that level yetWhen India grows to a certain level, it also needs to create an international environment that is favorable to itself, and it also needs to change the current international order dominated by the United States and Europe
When the time comes, he will have to join forces with China to break through the so-called current system. Therefore, we must maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude toward Sino-Indian relations.
First, we need to be cautious, because after World War II, the political and diplomatic history of the two sides does not seem to be so satisfactory, but we should not be pessimistic, and it is impossible for India to complete its rise on its own.
It is very difficult for China to complete its own rise, and the same is true for India, which wants to rise by its own strength, and the West will only adopt a strategy of wooing India because it is not strong enough now.
Once India's economic growth reaches two or three trillion yuan, after 2050, it will also be considered a potential challenger by the West. If both China and India are considered potential challengers by the West, then it is not impossible for China and India to join forces.
Therefore, we should maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude toward the long-term development of Sino-Indian relations.