The main logic: large state-owned banks will start a new round of deposit rate adjustment;
Driver: Event-driven
Since December 22, large state-owned banks will start a new round of deposit interest rate adjustment, which is only more than 3 months after the last round of centralized adjustment (September 1), with a maximum reduction of 25bp in line with the previous round of adjustment.
The trend of deposit regularization is expected to ease marginally. On the one hand, the reduction of deposit rates is beneficialMaintain the bank's reasonable margins and ease the pressure on net interest marginsto ensure its own sound operation and enhance the sustainability of its financial services entities. On the other hand, from the perspective of the balance structure of listed banks, as of the first half of this year, the proportion of individual and corporate demand deposits decreased from % in the same period of 19 years to %, respectively, and the fixed deposit trend of the real sector is obvious, resulting in a low degree of capital activation. Therefore, the reduction of deposit interest rates, especially the reduction of long-term deposit interest rates, can reverse the trend of fixed-term deposits to a certain extent and accelerate the conversion of savings into consumption and investment. [Caixin**: Interpretation of the reduction of bank deposit interest rates: how to look at deposits"Cut interest rates"？】
Main logic: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it would strengthen 6G pre-research.
Driver: Policy-driven
On December 21, the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology was held in Beijing, pointing out that as of November, a total of 328 5G base stations had been built20,000, doubling the number of gigabit broadband subscribers compared to the same period last year. 6G technology trials have been accelerated, and 6G pre-research has been strengthened.
Based on the overall research rhythm of 6G, the attention of 6G has gradually increased. The 6G ultra-large-scale antenna array ELAA-MM has changed from 64T64R to 256T256R, reconstructing the base station industry chain, increasing the volume and price of antennas, filters, power amplifiers, and PCBs, and further increasing the amount of devices and refined material considerations for technologies such as full-duplex CCFD, intelligent metasurface RIS, orbital angular momentum OAM, and terahertz photoelectric transmission. [Galaxy**: Technological upgrading, industrial transformation, 6G new highlights].
The main logic: the cumulative test mileage of autonomous vehicles has exceeded 70 million kilometers;
Driver: Policy-driven
At present, China's new energy vehicle market scale and the scale of automated terminals under construction and built are the world's first. The Ministry of Transport has said that it attaches particular importance to the promotion of autonomous driving, and the total number of autonomous vehicle test miles has exceeded 70 million kilometers.
Towards the end of 2023, leading manufacturers represented by Xpeng, Huawei, Li Enterprise, and NIO have begun to launch urban navigation functions that do not rely on high-precision maps, and generally take "real-time mapping of the vehicle side" as the ultimate goal. On the one hand, the removal of high-precision maps has greatly improved the generalization of urban navigation functions, which is conducive to the subsequent opening speed and intelligent volume of car companies, and we expect that the penetration rate of new cars with urban navigation functions in China will exceed 1% in 2024. On the other hand, the high-precision map scheme puts forward higher requirements for the model algorithm and data closed-loop capabilities of various manufacturers, and the leading edge of the first and second echelons is expected to be further strengthened, while the time window of the domestic intelligent driving market is rapidly narrowing. [CITIC**: Three key questions about the "high-precision map" of urban piloting].
4. Robot hardware - lead screw
Main logic: robot demand driven;
Driver: Event-driven
There are many types of lead screws, trapezoidal lead screws have low cost, self-locking function, reverse planetary roller screws have high load, small size, high precision and long life, so Tesla humanoid robots mainly use reverse planetary roller screws and trapezoidal screws. Trapezoidal lead screws are usually used for the wrist part of the robot, 2 per wrist, i.e. 4 per robot. The planetary roller screw is mainly used for the big arm, thigh and calf of the robot, with 1 upper arm, 2 thighs and 2 lower legs on each side, and a total of 10 on both sides.
Taking Tesla Optimus as an example, its whole body is expected to need 14 lead screw parts, assuming that the average mass production price of a single robot lead screw in the future is 1,000 yuan, the value of a single robot lead screw is 140,000 yuan, under the assumption of 1 million robot sales, the robot screw market space will reach 14 billion yuan. [Guosheng**: Robot hardware dismantling seven: detailed explanation of the production process of the lead screw].
The main logic: Xiaomi's annual tech feast will be held ;
Driver: Event-driven
Recently, Xiaomi opened the "Xiaomi Annual Science and Technology Feast" activity in the official community to recruit a total of 1,000 people, and the activity will be from December 24th to December 29th. Xiaomi's latest products and technologies are expected to be concentrated in this science and technology feast. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Announcement on Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products" (batch 377), which shows that Xiaomi Auto is among them. Xiaomi Auto is positioned as a pure electric sedan, with model numbers SU7 and SU7 Max. Lei Jun has said that Xiaomi cars will be launched in the first half of 2024.
The official launch time of Xiaomi Auto is 2024 H1, and according to the normal rhythm, it is inferred that Q1 2024 will enter the warm-up and release period. Previously, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's declaration disclosed the size and part of the configuration of Xiaomi's first model, but the market positioning and core selling points have not been disclosed to the market. In the ecological advantages of Xiaomi and the advantages of Xiaomi in channels and traffic, the sales of the first car of Xiaomi Auto are worth looking forward to. [Guotai Junan: Automotive Industry Weekly: Xiaomi's automobile industry chain is expected to gradually rise].
Main logic: Apple may integrate generative AI into iOS 18
Driver: Event-driven
Apple recently published an article describing a way to run LLMs (large language models) on devices that exceed the available DRAM capacity. The LLM-intensive computation and memory requirements are a challenge for DRAM capacity, and the company has built a flash-based inference cost model that will be optimized in two key areas: reducing the amount of data transferred from flash memory and reading more blocks of data more smoothly. This means that this groundbreaking study expands the applicability and accessibility of LLMs, and Apple's plan to integrate generative AI into iOS 18 may be accelerated.
According to the "Generative AI Smartphone Shipment Insights" report recently released by market research agency Counterpoint Research, it is estimated that 2024 will be a key year for generative AI smartphones, with shipments expected to reach 100 million units and 52.2 billion units.
Now that the smartphone market has entered the stock era, everyone is seeking new innovation opportunities, and domestic mobile phones have carried out intensive layout in the field of AI this year, which has also become a strong boost to promote the progress of domestic AI. Smartphones, PCs, smart glasses, smart speakers and other terminals will also become the hardware entrance of artificial intelligence, creating a new ecology and driving a new round of innovation in the consumer electronics industry chain. [Founder Electronics: Embracing New Opportunities for AI Mobile Phones].
Main logic: 100 billion neurons digital twin brain platform released;
Driver: Event-driven
At the 2023 annual summary meeting of the municipal science and technology major project of "Basic Transformation and Application Research of Brain and Brain-like Intelligence" in Shanghai, a series of scientific research achievements were officially released, including the world's first 100-billion-level neuronal digital twin brain platform, the world's first machine mind with dynamic binocular stereo vision and audio-visual multi-modal control, etc. The platform is the world's first digital twin brain simulation platform for 100 billion neurons, which uses the complex human brain as the prototype to realize the fine calculation simulation of the function of 100 billion neurons at the full scale of the human brain.
Lightning protection] lightning protection early knows: CITS United was filed on suspicion of illegal information disclosure;High-level stocks on the board are batch warning of risks.
Announcement] Good announcement: Shanghai RAAS injection clinical trial application was accepted;Shandong Road & Bridge plans to repurchase shares for up to 50 million yuan.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Continue to improve soybean oil production capacity and self-sufficiency rate and optimize the pig production capacity control mechanism.
Cross-border e-commerce] TikTok e-commerce has set a GMV target of $50 billion for 2024.
Hengqin] The Overall Development Plan for the Guangdong-Macao In-Depth Cooperation Zone in Hengqin was released.
Wind and solar storage] The national wind and solar power exceeded 1 billion kilowatts.
The main logic: the installation and investment of optical storage in the United States have reached a record high;
Driver: Event-driven
According to EUPD Research's 2023 U.S. PV market, it is expected to reach 32 GW to 35 GW of installed capacity if all planned utility-scale PV systems are capable of installation. In addition, between 2023 and 2028, the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic systems in the United States is expected to increase by about 233GW, and the installed capacity and investment in photovoltaic storage will reach a record high.
Hua Chuang** said in the research report that if the cost of photovoltaic modules and loan interest rates in the United States further decline next year, it is expected that the yield of photovoltaic projects in the United States can increase by 3-4pct, and the yield will improve significantly, which is expected to stimulate the installed demand in the United States to exceed expectations. In 2024, the installed PV capacity in the United States will reach 45-55GW, a year-on-year increase of 38%-69%. [Huatai**: The Federal Reserve may slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, which is expected to further stimulate the installation of photovoltaic capacity in the United States].
The main logic: ** Rural work conference requires to ensure that the grain output exceeds 13 trillion catties;
Driver: Policy-driven
On the 19th-20th, the ** Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing, proposing to establish a big agricultural concept and a big food concept, accelerate the revitalization of the seed industry, and require to do a good job in agricultural disaster prevention, mitigation and relief to ensure that the grain output in 2024 is maintained at 1More than 3 trillion catties.
CITIC believes that the Rural Work Conference is the highest work conference for arranging and deploying rural work every year, which will have a significant policy impact on the agricultural industry, sectors and listed companies. This year's meeting focused on grain production, seed industry revitalization, and high-standard farmland construction, and the agricultural subdivision may benefit.
The main logic: the new deal of Hainan property market and the expansion of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing.
Driver: Event-driven
On the afternoon of December 18, the housing and urban-rural development department of Haikou City, the provincial capital, held a meeting to "verbally convey" the policy changes to local real estate companies. The contents mainly include: the adjustment of the core purchase restriction area, the cancellation of the divorce purchase limit, the adjustment of the scope of talent introduction, the cancellation of the restriction on the purchase of residential housing by enterprises, and the cancellation of the restriction that the area of office space purchased by a single buyer in the same project shall not be less than 150 square meters.
In addition, according to a reporter from China's first newspaper who visited the second-hand housing market in Beijing and found that due to the impact of Beijing's blockbuster new property market policy, there has been a relatively obvious increase in transactions.