Although the China Automobile Association will only release the annual industry data next week, based on the production and sales reports of major car companies in December 2023 and the cumulative production and sales volume in the first 11 months of 2023, it is a sure thing that China's automobile production and sales will exceed 30 million in 2023.
Following 2017 2887After 90,000 units, after six years, China's auto industry has once again crossed a new milestone. In 2023, when demand is insufficient, this lofty milestone of 30 million units can be said to be a rare glory for the national economy. This shows that China's automobile industry has shown strong resilience, potential and vitality after multiple tests, and also shows the advantages of China's super-large-scale market to the world from one side.
The new glory is certainly worth celebrating, but in order to light up this glory, how many hardships and internal injuries Chinese car companies have experienced also need to be seen.
Some industry insiders commented that "Chinese cars have almost knelt into the era of 30 million", which can be said to be no exaggeration. Behind these 30 million vehicles, how many price cuts, how many layoffs, and how many car companies sell cars at a loss......
Therefore, 2023 is not only a year of shining glory, but also a year of deep internal injuries.
01 **Battle: No one is spared
It was no one else who beat the Chinese car to internal injuries, it was the cruel ** war that we set off ourselves.
At the beginning of the year, Tesla Model 3 Y officially dropped by 360,000 is the clarion call, and the keyword "* war" runs through the entire 2023.
After Tesla's official drop in early January, BYD, which was in its own brand camp in early February, used a 9The 980,000 Qin PLUS DM-i Champion Edition bloodbathed the compact family car market. Starting with the Qin family, BYD has successively launched a comprehensive champion offensive covering the major product series of the Han, Tang, Yuan, and Song dynasties, in order to consolidate the annual goal of 3 million vehicles. Among them, the Qin plus model has been reduced in price many times in succession, and it directly hit the beginning of 8 in November.
Immediately afterwards, in March, Citroen, a joint venture brand of the Dongfeng system, killed a Citroen C6 with a direct drop of 90,000, forcing a joint venture friend to follow up and reduce the price. triggered a full-scale battle involving more than 50 brands and hundreds of models, and some models even dropped by more than 100,000, and it is not an exaggeration to describe the intensity as "violent" and "bloody".
In addition, in the camp of the new forces, the newly remodeled Xiaopeng G9 released an official drop of 460,000 big killer moves;**Wenjie M7 also exchanged a drop of 40,000 yuan for a total of more than 120,000 Dading;Even Weilai, which is stubborn and does not reduce the price of high-end, also exchanged the weakening of the rights and interests of battery swapping in the middle of the year for a ** reduction ......of 30,000 yuan for all models
From January to December, from joint ventures to independence, from fuel to new energy, the war has never been extinguished, even if the China Automobile Association has made 16 car companies sign the "Letter of Commitment" can not be alleviated, but it is becoming more and more intense.
Moreover, with the intensification of the war, the new system of China's automobile market has gradually shown a trend of "one step in place".
In the past, the era of fuel vehicles had to fight the first war, and it was often the law that the new car was adjusted after a year and a half on the market. However, in 2023, the war will become more and more intense, and the new cars of independent car companies are becoming more and more inclined to show the bottom card directly on the listing price of new cars, for fear that the starting price will be set high, and no one will buy it if it is lowered in the future.
The final result is the complete restructuring of China's auto market system.
Under the fierce ** and configuration offensive of independent brands, the current 20-300,000 ** range has become the main battlefield of medium-sized and even medium and large vehicles.
In the past, joint venture brands relied on their technological advantages and brand premiums in the field of fuel vehicles, and they could easily buy a blank compact model for 20 tens of thousands, such as Tourang and Highlander, and it was common for them to increase their prices by 50,000 or 60,000 yuan. In 2023, the price reduction of 50,000 yuan is only barely maintaining a monthly sales of 4,000+, and as for Highlander, there is no need to wait for the terminal to reduce the price, and the official announcement of the discount of 20,000 yuan at the listing conference will be directly announced. It would have been unthinkable 10 years ago, but in 2023, it's a bloody reality.
However, it should be reminded that although the involution of independent brands has indeed achieved a counterattack on the technology and terminal sales of joint venture brands, it has also subverted itself.
02 "Opening staff and reducing expenditure" can't be saved, and the more you sell, the more you lose
Under the game of "exchanging price for volume" of killing 1,000 enemies and losing 800, increasing revenue without increasing profits has become the common fate of most OEMs.
The market did not feel hope because of the sales growth of the first war roll, but became more and more sad. For this milestone of 30 million, many OEMs can be said to have scarred themselves.
The financial reports for the third quarter of 2023 for major A-share passenger car listed companies such as SAIC Motor and BYD have been announced.
In terms of revenue, except for SAIC Motor and Celis, most other car companies achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. However, the net profit is clearly differentiated, with BYD, Great Wall and Changan leading in the third quarter, while SAIC and GAC Group fell by more than 24 year-on-year respectively69% and 2218%；Ideal to become the only profitable car company among the new energy vehicle companies, Cialis, BAIC Blue Valley, and Leap are still in a state of loss, but the loss range has narrowed slightly, and Xiaopeng and Weilai are in a situation of expanding losses, of which the most serious loss of Weilai has reached 4556.7 billion yuan.
To put it bluntly, carrying out the first war in an unoptimistic economic situation does not generate demand in the real sense, but will only lead to more and more money. But if you don't fall, someone will always fall, in order to survive, whether it is a new force that is barefoot and not afraid to wear shoes, or a state-owned car company with a deep background, they are inevitably engulfed in this disorderly turbulence.
The main engine factory is having a hard time, and the first to suffer bad luck are naturally those workers who are used to "start staff and reduce expenditure".
In 2023, the cold wind of layoffs will not only blow fiercely in major Internet companies, but also in the field of vehicle manufacturing. Whether it is a joint venture or an independent company, whether it is a traditional car company or a new force, whether it is a head or a marginal car company, no one is spared.
According to incomplete statistics, in 2023, more than ten car companies, including GAC Honda, GAC Toyota, Jaguar Land Rover, Gaohe Automobile, NIO, Tesla, Evergrande Automobile Subsidiary, Jiangsu Yueda Kia, VOY, Volvo, Polestar, Volkswagen, GM Ford, etc., will carry out large-scale layoffs. Among them, some car companies have even more than one round of layoffs, and the proportion of layoffs each time is as little as 15-20% and as much as 30%.
Layoffs are not uncommon, but such widespread and large-scale layoffs are shocking enough for China's auto market, even during the 2008 financial crisisEspecially for those joint venture car companies that used to lie down to make money, such large-scale layoffs are unprecedented.
For those car companies whose market performance is not optimistic and there is no way to open source, layoffs are the easiest and fastest way to reduce costs. However, if we only think about simply and rudely shrinking through layoffs, but are indifferent to the stubborn nature of our own system, we will inevitably end up in a field from which there is no way back.
To put it bluntly, the solution of "opening staff and reducing expenditure" is only a temporary urgency, and if you want to survive in this era of accelerated reshuffle, you really want to change your life for car companies, after all, you have to start from products, teams, and channels.
03 The new forces accelerated the clearance, and the era of joint ventures fell
However, from an optimistic point of view, the fact that they can lay off employees to protect themselves at least shows that these OEMs still have a glimmer of hope for life, and some of the more desperate car companies have completely fallen in 2023.
On December 27, WM Motor Technology Group*** filed for bankruptcy reorganization in Shanghai No. 3 Intermediate People's Court**. Although the official issued a document denying the bankruptcy of Weimar in October and denying that the boss had fled overseas, the suspended factories, employees, banners for the protection of the rights of the first businessmen, officials who stopped services, and the car machine have sentenced the former head of the new force to death.
On October 24, Mitsubishi Motors officially announced that it would stop local automobile production in China and give GAC Mitsubishi Motors a stake in GAC Group, completely withdrawing from the Chinese market. The "temporary suspension of production" and the optimization of the personnel structure that lasted for more than half a year finally failed to keep this once top joint venture brand.
Since entering 2023, Aiways has fallen into a turmoil of arrears of wages and arrears, although in July Aiways announced that it was ready to fully resume work, but half a year has passed, Aiways has not ushered in a real resumption of work, but has waited for a mandatory information, the once magnificent Shanghai headquarters has long been left empty, and a "rent payment notice" is posted on the door desolately.
In addition, there are also Tianji Motors, which stopped production in April, and Reading Motors, which filed for bankruptcy in May.
The defeat of the new forces has long been commonplace in recent years, after all, in this immature market, there are not a few people who fish in troubled waters. However, Weimar, as a new force that achieved mass production earlier than Wei Xiaoli, once even threatened to become the top 3 new forces, and now in less than two years, it has fallen from the peak of sales to the bottom, which shows the cruelty of the market reality. The fall of Weimar has undoubtedly sounded a heavy death knell for weak brands such as Polar Stone and Skyworth.
Compared with Weimar, Mitsubishi's defeat made countless Chinese people regret it even more. You must know that Mitsubishi used to be a well-deserved mainstream brand in the domestic market, and it was the first choice for the procurement of "engines and related supporting technologies" at the beginning of many independent car companies, and was even known as the "godfather of domestic cars".
Now Mitsubishi has lost China, in a sense, it also means the fall of an era, and even some industry insiders believe that "the withdrawal of GAC Mitsubishi will become the beginning of the joint venture brand to flee China". According to the latest data from the Passenger Association, from January to November 2023, the market share of mainstream joint venture brands has fallen to 345, compared to 39 in the whole year of 2022The 5% level fell a further 4 percentage points.
At present, in addition to the delisted Mitsubishi, including Dongfeng Citroen Automobile, Changan Mazda, Yueda Kia, Infiniti and other joint venture brands have successively fallen below the red line of annual sales of 100,000 units, of which Infiniti's sales in 2023 will be less than 6,000 units, in the current market environment where the penetration rate of new energy is close to 40%, these marginal joint venture car companies can still only gnaw on the old capital of fuel vehicles, and with the further increase in the penetration rate of new energy in 2024, their living space will become more and more tight.
It can be seen that after Mitsubishi, the knockout competition of joint venture car companies will only become more and more cruel.
04 The lips are dead and the teeth are cold, and the dealers retreat
As the saying goes, the main engine factory has a hard time, and the dealers will also suffer.
According to the dealer survival data for the first half of 2023 compiled by the China Automobile Dealers Association, in the first half of 2023, the loss ratio of dealers was 503%, with a profit ratio of 352%, with a flat ratio of 145%。The loss side is at a high level in recent years. Among them, the overall profitability of luxury imported brands is better, about 1 3 dealers lose money, and nearly half of the dealers are profitable;The proportion of loss-making dealers of joint venture brands and independent brands was 513% and 480%。
According to industry practice, if a dealer loses money when selling a car, the manufacturer will generally give a subsidy, such as BMW's subsidy for a single car to the dealer20,000 yuan, Mercedes-Benz and Audi also pay subsidies on a quarterly basis.
In addition, manufacturers will also reduce the pressure on dealers by lowering sales tasks. However, subsidies are not "available to everyone", and not every OEM can share the weal and woe with dealers.
At the beginning of November, "A Letter to FAW Toyota's Dealer Partners" went viral on the Internet, in which FAW Toyota said that it would continuously reduce production from October 2023 to February 2024, and reduce the number of distribution points to dealers to 380,000 units, "to ensure a thorough improvement in the inventory pressure and financial pressure of dealer partners". Prior to this, a joint proposal of FAW Toyota dealers went viral on the Internet. The proposal accuses FAW Toyota of detaching itself from reality and ignoring the life and death of dealers.
According to industry insiders, FAW Toyota dealers lost an average of about 10,000 yuan per car, coupled with a large number of manufacturers to approve cars, resulting in huge inventory pressure, and finally more than 200 dealers at the cost of not mentioning the car jointly "forced the palace", only to have the above operation of reducing production.
For example, FAW Toyota, a dealer who can unite to resist, is still a small number of lucky people, and behind these successful cases of resistance, there are countless small dealers who have silently fallen victim to the oppression of the main engine factory. According to statistics from the China Automobile Dealers Association, 1,500 dealers will withdraw from the network in the first half of 2023 alone, which is close to the number of withdrawals in the past two years. There are also 4S groups that have closed down directly.
At the beginning of the year, it was revealed that "the boss of Zhongtong Group, the largest automobile dealership group in Taizhou, Zhejiang, ran away, and all its 19 4S stores were closed", and later "Li & Fung Automobile", "Ziwei Automobile", "Ningbo Haishu Automobile", "Chongqing Longhua" and many other 4S store groups were either bankrupt, delisted, or auctioned;The phenomenon of single or multi-store running away from the old 4S stores for more than ten or twenty years is also frequent, and nearly 50 4S stores have been relocated as a whole ......
In the face of this situation, some 4S practitioners said: "The money earned for decades has been lost in the past few years", and 2023 has almost become the year with the most turmoil in China's 4S store group history.
Write at the end:
I thought that the successive "black swans" in the past three years were enough to make Chinese automobiles "work hard and work their muscles", but I never thought that the heavier "big task" would be the recovery in 2023.
To say that this is kneeling into 30 million is to say lightly. The author believes that Chinese cars should rush through 2023 with the attitude of "ants rolling fireballs".
However, do you think that after crossing 30 million, Chinese cars will be able to be "reborn in Nirvana"?It's a pity that this ordeal that befell Chinese cars obviously does not mean to go to the end. Industry insiders generally believe that the first war is still the main theme of the auto market in 2024. Wang Chuanfu, chairman of BYD, even believes that in the next 3-5 years, the auto market as a whole or different market segments will continue to fight the best ......
Based on the world's largest auto market, the "transformation of the global auto industry" will be entrusted to Chinese car companies, so it is foreseeable that there will be more "hungry and empty bodies" waiting for Chinese car companies to accept the baptism in the future.