Recently, the Netherlands has partially revoked the export license of ASML-related DUV immersion lithography machine issued before, which has attracted attention from the outside world.
On the morning of January 2, an official statement obtained by a Times reporter from ASML showed that the Netherlands had partially revoked the export licenses previously issued for NXT:2050i and NXT:2100i lithography machines to be shipped in 2023.
ASML said this will have an impact on the company's individual customers in China. At the same time, the company does not expect the export license revocation and the latest U.S. export control restrictions to have a material impact on its financial position in 2023.
The statement also shows that in recent communications with ASML, the United States** has further clarified the scope and impact of its export controls. On October 17, 2023, the United States issued the latest export control rules, restricting the shipment of certain models of mid-to-high-end DUV immersion lithography machines to certain advanced chip manufacturing fabs.
ASML remains committed to complying with all applicable laws and regulations, including export control regulations, in the countries in which it operates. ASML said at the end of the statement.
According to the ** Times reporter, in recent years, with the successive introduction of semiconductor export control policies in relevant countries, the industry is more worried about the impact of geopolitics.
In September 2023, the latest chip export control measures in the Netherlands came into effect. According to ASML's response at the time, the company had submitted an application for an export license to the Netherlands**. The Netherlands** has also issued the necessary permits for the company until September 1 to allow ASML to continue shipping the Twinscan NXT:2000i and subsequent immersion lithography systems this year (2023). ASML told the outside world at the time that the company's customers were also aware of the restrictions imposed by the export control regulations, that is, from January 1, 2024, ASML would basically not obtain export licenses to ship these equipment to Chinese customers.
On October 17, 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) also issued a number of rules to update and expand a series of stringent export control measures for advanced semiconductors and their manufacturing equipment issued on October 7, 2022. At that time, ASML said it would further clarify the scope of application of these new rules to the United States**.
How will these policies affect ASML's business in China?
At the end of October last year, Shen Bo, senior vice president of ASML and president of China, analyzed to the ** Times reporter that if ASML's business scale in the Chinese market this year is estimated, it is expected that the business in the Chinese market may be affected by 10%-15% in 2024. However, overall, ASML judges that the demand in the Chinese market will remain strong next year, and even considering the geopolitical impact, the impact on the company's overall business volume in the short term will be relatively limited.
Judging from ASML's financial report for the third quarter of 2023, the sales of the Chinese market accounted for 46% of ASML's overall sales in the current quarter, and the corresponding figures for the first two quarters of 2023 were 24% and 8% respectively.
Regarding the growth of the Chinese market, Shen Bo explained that in the past two years, due to factors such as capacity constraints, ASML has basically maintained a delivery rate of about 50% to global customers. In 2023, the Chinese market will deliver relatively more, mainly because some global customers with larger production capacity will be more sensitive to industry fluctuations, and when the industry boom declines, these customers will choose to slow down the progress of capacity construction and equipment procurement. However, customers in the Chinese market are still in the stage of capacity construction, and some customers are even just starting, especially in the mature process, where the demand is very strong, so they are relatively less sensitive to industry fluctuations.
Even in the face of industry fluctuations, customers in the Chinese market still demand that the goods ordered in the first two years be delivered as soon as possible, while the demand time of other customers has changed. Therefore, in the end, the result we see is that the share of the Chinese market has increased relatively. Shen Bo said.
Proofreading: Liao Shengchao.