According to analysts, the winter wheat harvest in the EU is off to a less than good start.
France is the largest producer of this crop, and planting has been delayed due to excessive humidity.
According to Annachiara Saguatti, an analyst at Arete, an Italian agri-food intelligence company, the French Ministry of Agriculture expects a 5 percent drop in the country's planted area.
"They believe that the ideal planting window has long been closed due to the delay, and there may be a shift in spring and summer crops," she said in an email. ”
Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, northern Germany, Denmark, western Poland and Slovenia were also affected by the wet autumn weather in Europe.
If it weren't for the excessive rains, winter wheat planting in the EU would likely be on par with last year and in line with the five-year average.
In this bear market, wheat is a safe choice for growers because it is more resistant to drought than rival crops, a weather phenomenon that is becoming more frequent during the European summer.
At the start of the year, drought didn't seem to be a big problem. DTN reported that in the 30 days to Dec. 6, rainfall in Europe's major grain-producing regions, with the exception of the southernmost regions, was 200 to 400 percent of normal rainfall.
The heavy rains were caused by Hurricane "Selangor" that ravaged the African continent in late October and early November. During this period, parts of France recorded record rainfall, and the rain continued after the dissipation of "Shelly".
France's crop ratings have been declining due to poor crop conditions and lack of sunshine, and Arvalis, France's largest applied agricultural research agency, said cereal yields have been affected.
"From the point of view of reduced germination and seedling development, water stagnation in the field may have affected the yield potential," Saguatti said. ”
The root system can be damaged by a lack of oxygen in the soil.
However, she believes that it is too early to draw any firm conclusions about production during the growing season. When the spring crops break dormancy, the situation will become clear.
The European Commission and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are at odds over how much wheat will be planted between 2023 and 2024.
According to the European Commission**, the EU's soft wheat exports will fall by 5% this year, while the USDA believes that total wheat exports (soft wheat and durum wheat) will increase by 7%.
So far, exports of soft wheat from the EU have been 14% slower than last year.
The pace of exports should pick up;Otherwise, the EU will end the marketing year with a fairly high ending inventory. ”
She believes that in the second half of 2023-2024**, the EU and Russia will compete fiercely in the export market.
Both origins need to speed up exports," she said.
The European Commission expects EU wheat ending stocks to fall by 55%, but still 38% higher than the average of the last four years.
"The situation is further complicated by the fact that many European crops are of low quality this year," she said. ”
I would say, it could be quite high, but the quality is low. ”
She thinks next year's output is likely to be in line with the five-year average, but if the weather is better than last spring, the quality should improve considerably.