France's agriculture ministry this week raised its ** for 2023 24 French soft wheat exports outside the European Union, citing expectations of higher sales to China but concerns about the 2024 harvest after heavy rainfall limited planting.
In the supply and demand outlook, the office put non-EU soft wheat exports at 10.2 million metric tons, up from 10.1 million metric tons projected last month and 0.0 million above last season's level4%。
The company downgraded French soft wheat shipments** in the EU to 6.69 million mt from 6.79 million mt, still 4.5 million mt higher than 2022 23 shipments8%。
In recent years, China has become a major export destination for France, the largest grain producer in the European Union. This season, Chinese buyers are expected to have booked between 2 million and 2.5 million mt of French milled wheat for shipment in December-March.
Francea Grimer also sharply lowered its estimate of soft wheat use in the starch sector, particularly by the French group Tereos, after a fire at a mill in northern France disrupted activity.
The cut led to a rise in its soft wheat stocks in France at the end of the 2023 24 season to 3.22 million mt from 3.06 million mt in the previous month, up 26% from the previous season.
Benoit Pieterment, head of the Francea Grimer Food Commission, said that for the next season, he was concerned that the Ministry of Agriculture's estimate for planting of winter cereals would have to be lowered.
In its first estimate on Tuesday, the French agriculture ministry projected a 5-5 percent decline in the 2024 soft wheat crop from the previous year1 percent, and the winter barley area decreased by 4 percent.
Pieterment told reporters: "It could be worse than that. ”。
He said some fields will have to be replanted with spring crops, especially spring barley, while others have already had their potential curtailed, although some could recover if the crop weather is good later in the season.
For corn, Francea Grimer raised its market estimate to 2 million tonnes in 2023 24 ending stocks, up from 1.86 million tonnes estimated last month.
Barley stocks** at the end of 2023 24 were revised upwards to 1.81 million tonnes from 1.71 million tonnes, mainly due to lower intra-EU exports**, particularly to Spain.