AmericanDebtThe problem has become the focus of global attention. Currently,U.S. TreasuriesThe total has already exceeded 33$8 trillion mark, and in the next 12 months, there will be $8 trillionDebtReplacement is required at expiration. In addition,U.S. Federal**ofFiscal deficitsIt is also expected to be around $2 trillion, which means that the United States will need to raise about $10 trillion in the next fiscal year to borrow new debt, pay off old debt, and make up for itFiscal deficits。In the face of such a huge number ofDebtpressure, the United States ** will have to continue to issue new onesTreasury bondsto meet funding needs. After all, this is also a tactic that has been used in the past – and is currently in the current situationU.S. TreasuriesThe peak of the issuance.
InU.S. Treasuriesof buyers,Outbound InvestmentThey are no longer core buyers. Take the data for September this year, for example, the United StatesOutbound InvestmentHeldU.S. TreasuriesThe balance is about 7$6 trillion, accounting for less than 23%. Among them, Japan holdsU.S. TreasuriesUp to 109 trillion dollars, still in placeOutbound InvestmentThe first of all. and held by Chinese mainlandU.S. TreasuriesThe balance fell to $778.1 billion, the lowest in nearly 14 years. Next up is the United Kingdom, holdingU.S. Treasuriesthe balance was $668.9 billion; Luxembourg holdsU.S. Treasuries$373.6 billion; Belgium at $317 billion; the Cayman Islands with $314.8 billion; Ireland at $295 billion; Canada is $280.5 billion. In addition, India holdsU.S. TreasuriesIt was $229.1 billion, Singapore was $187.3 billion, South Korea was $112.9 billion, and Saudi Arabia was $117.1 billion. It can be seen,PetrodollarsThe proportion is not as good as it used to be. According toU.S. Department of CommerceAccording to the published data, only Saudi Arabia is on the list in the Middle East, while the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Iraq, Oman, etcOiland held by gas-producing countriesU.S. TreasuriesAlmost negligible.
Surprisingly, however, Russia has not completely sold offU.S. Treasuries。Although it did not appearU.S. TreasuriesThe list of main holders, but Russia still holds tens of millions of dollarsU.S. Treasuriesand maintain a certain amount of contact. And what is surprising is that in the context of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the strong sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, Russia has been in Russia for two consecutive monthsOverweightnowU.S. Treasuries。According toU.S. Department of CommercePublicly available data, December 2022, held by RussiaU.S. TreasuriesThe balance fell to less than $100 million, to just $62.9 million. In January this year, it fell to $67 million, falling below the $100 million mark, and in July, it fell further to $29 million, setting a record for Russian holdingsU.S. TreasuriesThe lowest point since. However, in August and September of this year, Russia suddenly beganOverweightU.S. Treasuries, the balance of holdings rebounded to $31 million and $73 million, both of which were significantly higher than 135% quarter-on-quarter. Among them, Russia holds long-termU.S. TreasuriesThe balance reached $61 million, up from $26 million in the previous month. And in the short termU.S. Treasuriesalso expanded to $12 million from $5 million last month. What exactly caused the Central Bank of Russia for two months in a rowOverweightU.S. TreasuriesThis? Officials did not give an explanation, but it can be guessed that Russia may have made a choice between ** and the dollar, thinking that relative to **,U.S. TreasuriesThe liquidity is better. In addition, this could also be one of the ways in which Russia will show goodwill to the United States, or as a response to the goodwill of the United States. We can get a glimpse of this when the United States previously invited Russia to an informal meeting of the leaders of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). It is believed that before the United States issued an official invitation to the Russian authorities, the two sides had already communicated privately several times. Russia for two months in a rowOverweightU.S. TreasuriesThe act can be understood as a response to the goodwill of the United States.
Russia continuesOverweightU.S. TreasuriesThis behavior is not only of special significance in the current global economic situation, but also has an impact on international financial markets. First of all, this means that Russia is against the United StatesTreasury bondsconfidence in the bond market and willingness to put their own money into it. Secondly, RussiaOverweightU.S. TreasuriesIt also helps to stabilize beautyTreasury bondsmarket, reducing market volatility. Due to the domestic holdings of the United StatesU.S. TreasuriesDemand slows down if countries such as Russia continueOverweightU.S. Treasuries, which will help fill the gap in the market and maintain the liquidity and stability of the market. However, for Russia continuesOverweightU.S. TreasuriesAt present, various views are divergent and need to be further observed.
As can be seen from the above analysis, in the presentU.S. TreasuriesThe problem is becoming more and more prominentOutbound InvestmentYesU.S. TreasuriesThe purchasing power of the country fell, and the Americans themselves became the main holders. Surprisingly, however, Russia continuesOverweightU.S. Treasuries, although not becoming the main holder, but showing a certain amount of confidence and goodwill. This act is not only for beautyTreasury bondsThe market has had an impact, and it has also had some impact on the international financial markets. For Russia continuesOverweightU.S. TreasuriesThe reasons and prospects are still inconclusive and need to be observed. However, one thing is for sureU.S. TreasuriesThe problem will continue to attract global attention and will have a certain impact on the global financial market.
In the future, we will also pay close attentionU.S. TreasuriesThe problem develops and continues for RussiaOverweightU.S. Treasuriesconduct in-depth observations. At the same time, we also need to recognize:DebtForU.S. TreasuriesU.S. TreasuriesThe problem does exist day by dayDebtPressure. Currently,U.S. TreasuriesMore than 33$8 trillion and $8 trillion in the next 12 monthsDebtExpiration requires replacement, whileFiscal deficitsIt is expected to be around $2 trillion. This leaves the United States with $10 trillion to borrow new debt, pay off old debt, and make up for it next yearFiscal deficits。To meet this demand, the United States is likely to significantly increase the number of new onesTreasury bonds, because this is also a common strategy used in the past, andU.S. TreasuriesThe issuance is at its peak.
InU.S. TreasuriesAmong the buyers, the Americans themselves became the main buyers, andOutbound InvestmentThe proportion of those has decreased. Data as of September this year showsOutbound InvestmentHeldU.S. TreasuriesThe balance is only about 7$6 trillion, accounting for less than 23%. Among them, Japan holdsU.S. TreasuriesUp to 109 trillion dollars, in the first place. Held in Chinese mainlandU.S. TreasuriesThe balance fell to $778.1 billion, the lowest level in nearly 14 years. MiscellaneousOutbound InvestmentAmong them, the United Kingdom holds US$668.9 billion, Luxembourg US$373.6 billion, Belgium US$317 billion, the Cayman Islands US$314.8 billion, Ireland US$295 billion and Canada US$280.5 billion. In addition, India holds $229.1 billion, Singapore holds $187.3 billion, South Korea holds $112.9 billion, and Saudi Arabia holds $117.1 billionU.S. Treasuries。It can be seen,PetrodollarsThe proportion is not as good as it used to be.
In theseDebt, Russia continuesOverweightU.S. TreasuriesAttention. Although it did not appearU.S. TreasuriesThe list of the main holders, but Russia still holds tens of millions of dollarsU.S. Treasuries。What is particularly surprising is that inUS-RussiaAgainst the background of tense relations, Russia for two months in a rowOverweightnowU.S. Treasuries。According to the data, in December 2022 and January 2023, Russia heldU.S. TreasuriesThe balances were $62.9 million and $67 million, respectively, below $100 million, while in August and September of this year, Russia heldU.S. TreasuriesThe balance recovered to $31 million and $73 million, respectively. Such behavior may indicate Russia's attitude towards the United StatesTreasury bondsThe confidence of the bond market may also be one of the ways in which Russia will show goodwill to the United States.
Russia continuesOverweightU.S. Treasurieshas had an impact. First of all, it means that Russia is willing to put money into the United StatesTreasury bondssecurities market, and expressed confidence in the market. Secondly, the Russian oneOverweightHelps stabilize beautyTreasury bondsmarket, reducing market volatility. Due to the domestic holdings of the United StatesU.S. TreasuriesDemand slows down if countries such as Russia continueOverweightU.S. Treasuries, which will help fill the gap in the market and maintain the liquidity and stability of the market.
However, for Russia continuesOverweightU.S. TreasuriesThere is still uncertainty about the outlook and further observation is needed. Also, it should be noted thatU.S. TreasuriesThe problem will continue to attract global attention and will have a certain impact on the global financial market. Therefore, we should pay close attentionU.S. TreasuriesThe problem develops and continues for RussiaOverweightU.S. Treasuriesbehavior for further observation.