The fighting in northern Myanmar has been going on for more than two months, the most volatile of the year, but as the situation worsened, the intervention of the Chinese changed the situation. China announced on December 14 that the Myanmar military held talks with the Kokang, De'ang, and Arakan armies in China, and the two sides finally agreed to a temporary truce and promised to continue to liaise. As China has repeatedly stated that it wants a comprehensive truce in Myanmar, not only the Myanmar Min Aung Hlaing army has shown goodwill to China, but also the armed forces in various parts of Myanmar have temporarily stopped attacking, which is conducive to peace in the border areas of China and Myanmar.
What happened in Myanmar, many people don't know, but I want to know two questions, one is why Myanmar suddenly went to war? But how could they agree to an armistice? Let's talk about these two things separately.
The first question: The current civil war in Myanmar began at the end of the year, when a joint force of three members of the local military organization in Myanmar launched "Operation 1027" and launched an attack on the Myanmar military. The reason why this happened is mainly because of the ethnic problems within Myanmar, as well as the problems of some Greater Burmese, as well as the contradictions between various local tribes and the Burmese military, so I will not say much. But the main factor that triggered this conflict was that on the 20th, an accident occurred in the fraud park in northern Myanmar, and several tourists who wanted to escape were killed by a group of security guards, including a Chinese.
Seven days later, the three armies of Kokang, Rakhine, and De'ang joined forces and launched an attack with an obvious purpose. In fact, it is very likely that the local military forces in Myanmar believe that China is very dissatisfied with the deception in northern Myanmar and turn it into dissatisfaction with the military regime in Myanmar, so they want to use this incident to prove that China will not intervene. Therefore, we can see that the three brothers have joined forces against the Burmese regime without showing any hostility towards China, and they have invaded multiple online fraud centers in order to show goodwill to China. It can be seen that the reason why the local armed forces in Myanmar launched this military activity is partly because of the conflict in Myanmar, and partly because of speculation about China.
However, although none of the parties to the Civil War in northern Burma dared to take any unfriendly actions against China, the situation in this region will still have a certain impact on China. More than 500,000 people have been forced to relocate to northern Myanmar because of the ongoing war, and the open trade with China has also been interrupted because of the war, which has caused great instability on the Sino-Burmese border and has also had a great impact on the normal trade between China and Myanmar. Therefore, even if the local army of Myanmar shows a posture of no grievances and no enmity with China, China does not want to see the situation in northern Myanmar deteriorate further, and China has reiterated several times that it wants Myanmar to implement a truce and achieve peace as soon as possible, which is very clear. The recent Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) military Xi on the China-Myanmar border and the dispatch of ships to Myanmar undoubtedly indicate that China will maintain good relations with the Myanmar military.
In this case, despite the growing superiority of the local army in Myanmar, they still feel a hint of unusualness, and anyone with a brain can feel that the Chinese are dissatisfied with the situation in northern Myanmar that is getting worse and worse. Now, the most dangerous period in Myanmar is perhaps over, thanks to China-led negotiations and talks in China between representatives of both sides of the civil war in northern Myanmar, which led to a provisional armistice. In the war in Myanmar, no matter which side it is, it must be psychologically prepared to offend China, so in a short period of time, no one is willing to stand up. However, given the ethnic conflict within Myanmar, even if China reaches an armistice, the future of Myanmar is difficult to predict, and there are many changes that Myanmar will have to make if it is to maintain peace in the long term, and the Myanmar military will not be able to solve the deeper problems through its mediation.