In 2023, when the epidemic prevention and control is completely liberalized, self-driving travel will instantly surpass commuting and become the "first car purchase demand" in China's auto market
From 2020 to 2022, although various uncertainties have severely restricted the driving desire and car use scenarios of users in China's auto market, resulting in serious constraints on the normal production, sales and strategic optimization of car companies, the internal demand of China's auto market has undergone great changes, and the demand for self-driving travel has bottomed out strongly**. By 2022, the proportion of self-driving trips has risen to 3303%, which is very close to the commuting demand;In 2023, this trend is even more pronounced, with the proportion soaring to 4906%, surpassing the commuting demand in one fell swoop and becoming the "first car purchase demand" in China's auto market.
Each car purchase demand is accompanied by corresponding consumption characteristics, and the "first car purchase demand" corresponds to the consumption characteristics of the mainstream car market. With the rapid rise of demand for self-driving tours, better meeting this demand will become the core feature of China's mainstream auto market, and will also become the core logic of mainstream car companies to optimize their top-level strategies, product layout and brand building.
However, at present, some car companies have not fully realized that the demand for self-driving travel will explode so rapidly, so they lack targeted strategic planning and product layout, and they are like wooden people.
Before 2007, China's mainstream auto market was dominated by the first-rich group and unit users, and the car use scene focused on business and business, with high-end models such as Audi A6L, Accord, and Passat emerging.
At the end of the last century and the beginning of this century, private users mainly from the rich group accelerated the influx into China's auto market, most of them are first-time buyers, the core purpose of buying a car is to serve the business, and then combined with the first-class state-owned enterprises, the military and other unit users, together constitute the first phase of China's mainstream car market consumer body.
As the core scenario of the first phase of China's mainstream auto market is public business, mainly to the pick-up and drop-off of key users such as leaders and customers, users pay great attention to brand, quality, space, etc. when buying a car, and high-end models such as Audi A6L, Accord, Passat, and Old Santana have emerged, and "L cars" with Chinese characteristics have also been born, which have achieved a number of global car companies with strong brand appeal such as Audi, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Honda. At that time, a large number of Chinese brands such as Geely, Great Wall, BYD, and Chery were struggling with the low-end, low-price, and low-quality marginal car market, and were still "developing obscenely".
From 2007 to 2018, China's mainstream auto market was dominated by first-time buyers of young family users, focusing on commuting, and entry-level models such as Lavida, Sylphy, and Haval H6 emerged.
Around 2007-2008, a large number of young family users of the post-80s generation who bought cars for the first time quickly poured into China's auto market, and instantly became the main consumer of the second stage of China's mainstream auto market. After the main body of car purchase has become a young user who marries a wife and has children, there are fewer people who get out of the car and beat people, because they buy a car in order to get married and have children, what kind of fight, but there are more porcelain, and young users who feel that they are not deeply involved in the world are easy to fool and bully;
The core scene of the second phase of China's mainstream auto market is commuting, which pays great attention to the practicality, economy and brand of the car, and has emerged unique selling points such as mediocre design and elongated space, cultivating a large number of entry-level models such as Lavida, Sutar, Sylphy, Haval H6, etc., and nourishing many global car companies such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Buick, and Hyundai. In the middle and late stages of the second stage, a small number of Chinese brands such as Geely, Great Wall (Haval), and Changan rose rapidly and got a piece of the pie.
From 2019 to 2022, China's mainstream auto market has rapidly tilted towards re-purchasing middle-aged family users and self-driving travel scenarios, and diversified models such as the Ideal ONE and Tank 300 have emerged in the early stage.
From 2019 to 2022, the age of young users who bought for the first time in the past have exceeded 35 years old, or even 40 years old, and they have become typical uncle users, not only greasy, but also do not play cards according to the routine, and the self-driving travel demands that have been marginalized have exploded rapidly, and the once hot-selling Lavida, Sylphy, Haval H6, Audi A6L, Passat, etc., have either reduced prices on a large scale**, or sales have declined sharply, ideal one, tank 300, Model Y, Products such as Song PLUS, which originally belonged to the non-mainstream car market, are more likely to explode.
From 2017 to 2019, with the rapid cooling of China's auto market, many mainstream car companies such as Buick, Chevrolet, and Volkswagen have formulated new strategies, and Volkswagen's SUV strategy has achieved remarkable results. From 2019 to 2022, it was originally a critical period for the strategic transformation of China's auto market, such as Volkswagen's SUV strategy to focus on energy-saving transformation and upgrading, and Buick Chevrolet's further integration of large car strategy. The strict lockdown from 2020 to 2022 forced most car companies to stagnate their transformation plans with local characteristics, mechanically copying the pure electric strategies of Europe and the United States, and most car companies quickly lost touch with the evolution rhythm of China's auto market.
In 2023, self-driving travel will surpass commuting to work in one fell swoop and become the "No. 1 car purchase demand" in China's auto market, officially pushing the new scene of China's mainstream auto market into a new era dominated by self-driving travel.
In 2023, self-driving travel will surpass commuting to become the new "No. 1 car purchase demand" in China's auto market, which has important industry value, which not only inherits the trend of self-driving travel appeal bottoming out in 2020-2022, but also clarifies the evolution trend of China's auto market in the next few years
Based on the trend of increasing re-purchase proportion and middle-aged, the Bitcar Research Institute judged that the rapid dominance of self-driving travel demands is not accidental, but a trend, 2019-2022 is the initial gestation period of the trend, and it will be officially finalized in 2023, and we will collectively refer to 2019 as the third stage of China's mainstream car market, a higher quality and more diversified stage, and it may also be the first stage of development of Chinese brands. As for when the third phase will end, it is impossible to predict effectively.
Family self-driving tours are the core breakthrough for car companies to compete in the third phase of China's mainstream auto market, and Chinese-style self-driving tours are mainly based on family members, short distances, short time, sightseeing and leisure.
The booming self-driving travel demand of China's auto market has its own distinctive characteristics: the companions are mainly family members, and in 2023, more than 70% of the husband and wife will travel together, more than 60% will be accompanied by children, and more than 30% will be accompanied by parentsMainly family members, so that the travel time is concentrated on weekends, small long holidays and big long holidays, and the proportion of the three in 2023 is respectively. 75% and 3760%;The travel time is concentrated on weekends and small long holidays, so that the number of travel days is concentrated in 2-3 days and 1 day, accounting for 40 in 202398% and 3249%;The number of travel days is concentrated in three days or less, so that the travel radius is concentrated in 50-100 kilometers and 101-200 kilometers, accounting for 27 in 202303% and 2401%;The travel radius is concentrated within 200 kilometers, so that the types of play are concentrated in sightseeing self-driving and leisure self-driving, accounting for 65 in 202349% and 6190%……
Family members are the mainstay, short distance, short time, sightseeing and leisure ......Interlocking, together create a Chinese-style self-driving tour - family self-driving tour, which is clearly different from long-distance travel and challenge travel in Europe and the United States.
The foothold of car companies competing for the self-driving car market is in the product, and Chinese-style self-driving tours pay more attention to space, safety, and energy consumption, and prefer multi-functional, and are more inclined to off-road toughness and high-end atmosphere.
The particularity of family-oriented Chinese-style self-driving tours will eventually be reflected in the product level: from the point of view, Chinese-style self-driving tours pay great attention to space, accounting for as much as 8226%, if the car companies paid attention to the L model before, the next step is to actively develop 2L models, or even 3L models, similar to the concept of "large flat" will be common in the future, and more medium and large, large and other large cars will be launched. The second is safety, comfort and energy consumption, which are the core concerns of home users. The core concerns of traditional self-driving tours, such as power, handling, and passability, are relatively low in the attention ranking of family-oriented Chinese-style self-driving toursAs space is the core focus of Chinese-style self-driving tours, it has increased the appeal of multi-functional categories such as MPVs and SUVs, as well as types of products such as off-road toughness and atmospheric high-end. Entering the era dominated by self-driving tours, the share of sedans is likely to shrink, from a mainstream category to a non-mainstream category
No matter what stage of the mainstream auto market car companies are competing, the core competitiveness lies in the product. Whether car companies can stand out in the Chinese self-driving car market depends on whether they can provide competitive MPV, SUV and other multi-functional products, as well as off-road tough, atmospheric high-end and other types of products, and whether related products can fully highlight the advantages of space, safety, comfort and energy consumption.
Focusing on family self-driving tours and highlighting energy-saving and multi-functional Denza, Tank, and Ideal, it will lead the self-driving travel appeal ranking of mainstream brands in 2023.
In 2023, the penetration rate of DENZA private users' self-driving travel demands is as high as 7284%, Denza D9, which is very suitable for family self-driving tours, is the core promoter and beneficiary, with monthly sales exceeding 10,000 units, while N7 and N8, which have no special advantages in self-driving tours, are unfavorable. In just one year, DENZA has fully demonstrated the trend of self-driving travel in China's auto market from both sides of the positive and negative sides, hoping to create a good strategic atmosphere for the N8 MAX and N9 two new products that are also suitable for family self-driving travel in 2024. From 2024 onwards, in addition to Denza, a large number of similar brands such as WEY, VOYANT, Jietu (Shanhai), Chery (Fengyun), BYD (high-end products) will actively deploy the self-driving car market
In 2023, the tank will be sold at 70As of the end of November 2023, the performance of the Tank 300 with outstanding cost performance is still stable, and the Tank 400 and Tank 500, which are mainly energy-saving and cost-effective, are gradually getting better, and the tank brand has fully tasted the sweetness of the outbreak of Chinese-style self-driving tours. From 2024 onwards, in addition to tanks, a large number of similar brands such as Formula Leopard, BAIC Off-Road, and Toyota (New Prado) will actively deploy the self-driving car market
Ideal to 6878%, ranking third in the list of mainstream brand self-driving travel demands, from the ideal L7 8 9 to the large pure electric MPV MEGA, almost all of them are tailored for the family self-driving car scene with Chinese characteristics. However, range extension, non-hardcore, etc., are also obvious shortcomings of Li Auto, which partially demonstrates why the self-driving travel demands of DENZA and hard-core tanks are slightly higher than ideal. If the Yiche Research Institute suggested that Li Auto develop PHEV, I believe it will be scoffed, but the suggestion of developing hard-core products, we would like to mention, even if it is a hard-core product based on extended range. By building two product systems with significant differences between the L series and the hard faction, we will deepen and refine China's new mainstream auto market, which focuses on self-driving tours, and expect the domestic annual sales of Li Auto to reach 2 million units in the next five years.
In 2023, Tank, WEY and Haval will accelerate the transformation of energy-saving, and from 2024, Great Wall has the potential to compete for the leader of the new mainstream car market focusing on self-driving travel scenarios.
2023 is a critical year for Great Wall Motors to accelerate the transformation of new energy: Blue Mountain and Gaoshan will help WEY brand basically realize the new energy transformationThe main hybrid power tank accelerates the transformation and upgrading to energy-saving;Big Dog, the second-generation Big Dog and the Raptors help Haval actively explore a new blue ocean of hardcore and boost energy-saving ......
The strategic optimization of Tank, WEY and Haval highlights the keywords of hardcore, energy-saving and high-end, which are the core selling points of the new mainstream car market dominated by self-driving tours. In 2023, the three main hybrid brands of Tank, Haval, and WEY (excluding pure electric Ora) will all rank among the top 20 mainstream brands in self-driving travel. After the product structure is further optimized in 2024, it is believed that there is still room for improvement;
The strategic optimization of the Great Wall complements the new evolution trend of China's auto market, which fully reflects the value of the strategist Lao Wei. As long as the strategic direction is okay, it will be much easier to optimize the tactical level such as design and pricing, and there is no need to even trouble the strategist Lao Wei, so that professionals can do professional things and jointly help Great Wall Motors dominate China's new mainstream auto market, which is dominated by self-driving tours.
In 2023, BYD has just become dominant, and in 2024, it will have to move non-stop to the new mainstream car market dominated by self-driving tours, and the high-end products of Formula Leopard, Denza, and BYD are given high hopes.
In 2022, BYD's domestic sales will exceed 1.6 million units, close to Toyota and Volkswagen. In 2023, BYD's global sales are expected to challenge 3 million units, and the domestic sales volume is expected to challenge 2.7 million units, instantly surpassing Volkswagen and Toyota, and dominating the Chinese auto market
At the time when BYD is rapidly dominating the Chinese auto market, China's mainstream auto market is also evolving rapidly, instantly shifting from commuting to self-driving travel, which quickly exposes the hidden dangers of BYD's dominance of the Chinese auto market: in the first three quarters of 2023, BYD's sales are still concentrated in the compact and below levels, although Qin and Song have contributed to BYD's dominance of the Chinese auto market in 2023, but the two are not the fist products competing for the new mainstream car market;In the first three quarters of 2023, Tang and Han, who had high hopes, encountered challenges to varying degrees, partly indicating that Tang and Han's positioning and styling design are not the fist products competing for the new mainstream car marketIn the first three quarters of 2021-2023, the market share of BYD's low-level products increased more than that of high-level products, which is objectively not conducive to BYD's competition for the ...... of the new mainstream car market dominated by self-driving toursThe rapid explosion of the Denza D9 and the rapid popularity of the Formula Leopard 5 have demonstrated the rapid rise of the new mainstream car market focusing on self-driving travel, and illustrated the urgency of BYD to accelerate the layout of the new mainstream car market
In 2024, there will be high hopes for Equation Leopard, Denza, BYD's high-end products, etc., but the established product planning of the above brands and sequences needs to be further optimized: the strategic axis of Equation Leopard should be the Leopard 5 and Leopard 8, based on which derivative products will be actively developed, such as Leopard 5L (similar to Song L), Leopard 5 MAX (similar to Song MAX), Leopard 8L, Leopard 8 Max, etc., as well as the hybrid version of Leopard 3. After the above-mentioned products are getting better, it is not too late to consider new products such as sports cars and Leopard 3 EVsThe disadvantages of the N7 and N8 further demonstrate the value of the D9, and the weight of the N8 Max and N9 should be higher than that ......of the sedan project
After the rapid dominance, under normal circumstances, the core thinking of the product layout of car companies must be diversification and build more moats. The premise of this strategic thinking is that the mainstream auto market will remain unchanged, for example, the mainstream auto market will still be dominated by the commuting scene dominated by Qin and Song in the future. However, in 2023, China's new mainstream car market will instantly turn to the self-driving travel scene, that is, from 2024, BYD will have to fight non-stop to capture the new mainstream car market, and the way of playing is different. At present, BYD's product layout in 2024-2025 is more based on the background of 2021-2022.
Chery has an early insight into the opportunities of self-driving travel in China, and in 2024, three arrows will be launched at the same time, focusing on energy-saving vehicles, and Chery may become a halfway way in the competition for the new mainstream car market.
Chery is like a hunting dog, with a keen sense of smell than anyone else, and has long seen the opportunity of domestic self-driving travel, and launched an independent shortcut in 2018 and 2021, and took the lead in positioning travel +. However, those who are the first to discover opportunities may not be the biggest beneficiaries, and in the past 20 years, Chery has encountered this embarrassment. In 2023, Jietu and Xingtu will only rank 10th and 13th in the list of self-driving travel demands of mainstream brands, and the Chery brand will not be in the top 20. In the first three quarters of 2021-2023, Chery Passenger Cars still has the highest market share in all classes, which is still micro-small
From 2024 onwards, the mountains and seas of Jietu, the Star Era of Xingtu and Chery's Fengyun system will be three arrows at the same time (ICAR focuses on pure electric), murderous, and the focus of product layout is on energy-saving vehicles, in terms of scale, I am afraid that even BYD, Great Wall, Changan and other strong competitors are difficult to match, Chery may become a halfway way to fight in China's new mainstream car market. If the overseas auto market can still dominate in 2024, Chery will pose a huge challenge to BYD's position as a leading Chinese brand
Although the strategic level is in place, the three major legions of the shortcut's mountain and sea system, the star era system of Xingtu and Chery's Fengyun system still need to be carefully polished at the tactical level. Again, Chery has hardly lost at the strategic level (in the lead), but almost never won at the tactical level (copying and following more).
Compared with Great Wall, BYD and Chery, Geely's potential to compete in the new mainstream car market dominated by self-driving tours is the greatest, and the first three are almost all bright cards.
From Geely to Lynk & Co to Zeekr, Geely Automobile's self-driving travel attributes are not too obvious: Geely's multi-brand matrix is not particularly significant in the ranking of the top 20 mainstream brands in 2023, with Lynk & Co ranking 12 and Geely ranking 20;Geely's big cars, hard-core, energy-saving and other labels are not particularly prominent;In 2023, the core scene of the L7, L6 and E8 products of the Galaxy series, which has high expectations, is not a road trip;In the first three quarters of 2021-2023, Geely's sales focus is still on compact products and below, accounting for ...... 90%.
In 2023, around the competition for the new mainstream car market dominated by self-driving tours, Geely's core competitors Great Wall, BYD, Chery, etc., have basically completed the deployment of troops and troops, and will make strong efforts in 2024Theoretically, the self-driving travel scenario is more conducive to unleashing the potential ...... of new technologies and products such as Geely's Thor Power and Lynk & Co 08In the competition for self-driving travel in China's new mainstream car market, Geely is expected to accumulate steadily.
Compared with the pure electric M series, the hard-core (style) range extender products are more conducive to Li Auto to compete in the new mainstream car market dominated by self-driving tours, comprehensively challenge the BBA and continuously consolidate the high-end car market.
In 2022, Li Auto ranked first in the self-driving travel demands of China's mainstream brands, and in 2023, with the strong development of DENZA D9 and Tank 500 Hi4-T, the self-driving travel demands of DENZA and Tank will quickly surpass those of Rational Auto. However, comparing themselves with themselves, Li Auto's self-driving travel appeal is still showing a growth trend, and the 2022 63. led by Ideal One is 6373%, rising to 68 in 2023, dominated by Ideal L7 8 978%;
If the judgment that self-driving travel has become the core scene of the new mainstream car market can withstand scrutiny, the ideal strategy of consolidating the high-end family car market is equivalent to continuously tapping the potential of high-end self-driving travel. Among them, the pure electric M series represented by MEGA is an option, but it may not be the best choice, based on existing technologies such as range extension, hard (style) may be more worth considering. Based on Li Auto's corporate philosophy of paying attention to details and highlighting differentiation, it is very likely that it will be able to play a lot of new tricks in the hard-core car market, which will pose a greater challenge to traditional high-end brands such as BBA
As of November 2023, Li Auto is one of the very few car companies that can organically combine strategic planning and tactical arrangement. The leader of a good car company needs not only strategic thinking such as direction, but also tactical thinking such as product.
In the next decade, self-driving travel will fully reshape China's mainstream auto market, and more and more car companies have realized the importance of self-driving travel, and a small number of car companies have begun to actively deploy.
Over the past decade, China's mainstream auto market has been dominated by first-time home buyers, focusing on commuting scenarios, and most car companies are accustomed to it, and even feel that this is the norm in China's auto market, resulting in a sluggish strategy
In the past three or four years, the accelerated release of self-driving travel demands was originally a critical period for the majority of car companies to actively respond to new demands, but a new crown epidemic came, and car companies had to be busy with epidemic prevention and control and production and supply assurance, which made the original strategic sluggishness fall into strategic stagnation again, especially overseas car companies. In 2023, when the epidemic is rapidly liberalized, most car companies will instantly encounter the huge challenge of "strategic disconnection";
In 2023, the demand for self-driving travel will surpass commuting in one fell swoop, making the evolution direction of China's new mainstream auto market more clear, and some brands such as Ideal, Denza, and Tank will take the lead in benefiting, and more and more car companies will also realize the importance of self-driving travel, and a small number of them will begin to make targeted layouts
From 2024 to 2027, it is basically predicted that the self-driving travel demand of China's auto market will continue to be released, and the proportion of appeal is expected to approach 60%.
It is currently unknown which models and which car companies will ultimately benefit. Although Chinese brands are the first to benefit, as long as the strategy is properly adjusted, it is believed that overseas car companies still have opportunities.