U.S. CPI in November was **3 year-on-year1%, expected **31%, previous value **32%。The core CPI in November was **4% year-on-year, expected **4%, and the previous value was **4%.
After the release of the U.S. CPI data, the spot *** rose by more than $10 and is now at 1996$09 ounce, spot *** went up 0$3, now at $23$1 oz.
Previously**
The last note of the Fed's interest rate hike?U.S. stocks have started to carnivalThe last US CPI report of the year will be held at 9:30 p.m. (8:30 a.m. EST), and the Federal Reserve will follow on Wednesday. For investors who are sure that the interest rate hike cycle is over and cheering for the opening of the interest rate cut channel next year, this report will be the last "sound" of the Fed's farewell to interest rate hikes. U.S. stocks have already started to run ahead, with the S&P 500 just 4% from its all-time high. So, will everyone be happy as they think?
The market expects CPI to increase by 3% year-on-year in November1% from 32% slowed further to about the same level as the previous month;Core CPI (excluding volatile categories such as energy and food) is expected to continue to grow by 4% year-on-year and 03%。The core CPI focuses on the housing market.
As inflation maintains a downward trend and the international ** continues to weaken, investors believe that the CPI has been "decided". FedWatch shows that there is a 98% probability that the Fed will not move on Thursday, with only a nearly 2% chance of raising interest rates by 25 basis points. Instead, investors are starting to happily price in a rate cut next year, possibly as early as March next year (47% probability).
The consensus of major investment banks on CPI is also 3-31%, the tendency will be more than expected to slow down;The core CPI will be at 39-4.Hovering in the 1% range. In other words, CPI has been reduced to a controllable variable and is difficult to hit the market.
Itemized Prospects
Against the backdrop of weak global oil demand and rising U.S. oil production inventories, WTI*** has fallen to $70 a barrel, which has further eased U.S. energy**. According to EIA data, all types of retail gasoline and road diesel in the United States continued to decline month-on-month in November, and the year-on-year decline also further expanded from the previous month, with only jet fuel** increasing.
The end of the strike in the U.S. auto industry, coupled with the weak consumer spending under high interest rates, automobiles** are still declining. Research institute Jundi (J.).d.Power) and LMC Automotive** The average retail transaction of new cars in the United States decreased by 007% to 4$530,000 per vehicle.
On the other hand, the Manhiem Used Car ** Index showed that the wholesale price of used cars decreased by 2% month-on-month in November1%, the year-on-year decline is also expanding.
The most concerned is the housing market, which accounts for more than 1 3 of the overall CPI, and the month-on-month growth rate in the October CPI report was cut by half to 03%, if this trend can continue, is expected to contribute to overall and core CPI mitigation.
The Zumper National Rent Index showed that the median one-bedroom rent in the U.S. decreased by 0. month-on-month in November4%, and the median rent for two-bedroom homes decreased by 03%, the lowest year-on-year growth rate since December 2020. Of the 100 largest cities included, 60 had a median one-bedroom rent lower than the previous month, with only 29 cities rising. Zumper noted that as inflation, a slowdown in migration, and record multi-family residential buildings begin to come into use, tenants are finding that they have more options and less competition than they did a year ago, and that many markets continue to soften.
The red color shows the year-on-year increase in the median rent of a one-bedroom, and the blue color shows the two-bedroom bedroom
Anthomos Georgiades, CEO of Zumper, said: "We are seeing rents gradually stabilising in most major markets. For example, while renting in Miami is now more expensive than it was before the pandemic, it no longer sees sharp price increases every month. ”
In other words, the biggest sub-item that has been restricting the CPI to "ride the tiger" has finally weakened in the high-interest rate environment, and it is only a matter of time before it is transmitted to the inflation report, bringing a surprise to the market. Combined with energy, new cars and used cars** further slowdown, CPI is indeed not to be feared. As long as the CPI is maintained at 32% below, it means that the Fed's monetary cycle has been tight enough, there is no need to raise interest rates further, and it also increases the possibility of a soft landing for the economy.
*: Straight flush 7x24 news.