The selling trend of northbound funds is really desperate, last week foreign capital had a small outflow for three days, we once thought that the outflow trend of foreign capital has eased, but this week's three trading days foreign capital are sold sharply, Monday only in the morning sold nearly 10 billion, A shares directly dived, yesterday foreign capital sold more than 5 billion throughout the day, today the net sale of more than 9.5 billion throughout the day, intraday once sold more than 10 billion. At present, last week's foreign capital ** and the first two days of domestic capital to undertake are likely to be in the game policy expectations, yesterday's economic work conference landing, funds directly cashed, today domestic capital, foreign capital are smashing, because domestic capital is also cashing, so the first two days of the deep V is gone, some only all the way to weaken, the Shanghai Index once again lost 3000 points.
In fact, the tone of the meeting is in line with expectations, and the enthusiasm and urgency can be seen from it, but the market wants to stimulate real estate, especially foreign capital, only looking at real estate and not looking at the so-called high-end manufacturing.
Since the beginning of August, northbound funds have continuously sold nearly 200 billion, and their selling duration and intensity have set a historical record. Foreign capital still has nearly two trillion positions, profits should be gone, if you cut the meat how much can you sell can not be **, this uncertainty is a deterrent, Mao index, Ning index and other core asset holders are panicked, active funds will continue to avoid heavy stocks. In this way, the heavyweight stocks will continue to fall in extremity, and today is the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 leading the decline and starting to kill liquor.
The current ** of A-shares has little to do with the fundamentals, mainly to see when the capital can reach a new balance. We have been emphasizing to you that the point, valuation, and sentiment of A-shares are all at historically low levels, but if you want to rise, you must have an east wind, and incremental funds are the east wind. The incremental funds are the most flexible in foreign capital, people are optimistic about it, and they will sell it if they are short, and they will not be subject to various restrictions like public offerings.
Judging from the SSE 50 position, we believe that the market is overly pessimistic, and the various pessimistic grand narratives are more of an afterthought after a long period of decline, rather than a kind of foresight, and the short-term economic downturn will magnify the pessimism of the long-term trend. Again, in the extreme stage of the market, we listen less to grand narratives and trust more common sense.
Finally, a brief look at the market, as of **, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 115%, the GEM index fell by 166%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is 089%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 118%。The turnover of the two markets shrank to 076 trillion, a net sale of 95 northbound funds9 billion.
In terms of industries, food and beverage, consumer services, real estate, petroleum and petrochemical, power equipment and new energy led the decline.
Today's end of lithium carbonate ** full line limit, is it that after the A-share supervision became stricter, some funds went to the market to speculate.
The November CPI released by the United States last night was in line with expectations, and the year-on-year growth rate of the core CPI in November was the same as that in October, and the month-on-month growth rate rebounded, indicating that the inflation in the U.S. service industry is sticky, and subsequent inflation may be difficult to fall quickly, but the market is fully pricing in the Fed's early interest rate cut.
For the Federal Reserve, it needs to manage market expectations well, if the market is too optimistic and the yield of the US 10 bonds will fall rapidly, the cost of borrowing will also fall rapidly, the economy will be somewhat, and the effect of household wealth will increase, and household spending will also increase, which will make it more difficult for the economy to cool down and inflation to come down, which in turn will strengthen tightening expectations. It depends on the Fed's statement on Thursday whether the Fed's demand for a soft landing for the U.S. economy is strong, and if controlling inflation is much more important than a soft landing, it may weigh on market optimism.
Risk Warning: **There are risks, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently.