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After experiencing the previous downward cycle, the memory chip market **began**. Up to now, the **** of some models of memory chips has ranged from 10% to 50% compared with the trough of the year.
The rebound of the industry's prosperity has ushered in intensive research by listed companies in the memory chip industry. Recently, a number of listed companies such as Longsys and BIWIN Storage said in an interview that the global chip market situation has improved, the price increase of memory chips has been transmitted to the downstream, and customers are actively stocking.
As the "wind vane" of the semiconductor industry, memory chips are an important component of many semiconductor products. Yu Fenghui, a specially invited researcher at China's financial think tank, said in an interview with the ** reporter: "In order to cope with possible cost increases, downstream manufacturers have begun to stock up in advance, and their attitude tends to be positive, which is reflected in the actions of some listed companies and may further promote the growth of market demand." ”
Some models have increased by as much as 50%.
From the perspective of the market performance of memory chips, the two major categories of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) and NAND flash (flash memory) are currently higher than the bottom of this year.
Yuqi Wang, an analyst at TrendForce, told the reporter: "This round of memory chips** began to decline after peaking in the fourth quarter of 2021, with NAND Flash falling the most. Under the production reduction strategy of overseas storage giants, NAND Flash** will be the first to hit the bottom at the end of the third quarter of 2023**.
The reporter learned from some dealers in South China that taking the more common consumer SSD products in NAND flash as an example, in recent months, Kingston, Western Digital and other brands have seen a price increase of about 100 yuan.
Guo Tao, deputy director of the China E-commerce Expert Service Center and angel investor, said: "DRAM products are about 13% to 18% higher than this year's bottom***, while some NAND Flash have increased by 50%. ”
Different models of memory chips have different increases, both due to the impact of upstream production control rhythm and downstream demand. Wang Yuqi said: "In the field of DRAM, the increase in mobile DRAM is more significant, compared with the bottom of the *** about 20%;In the field of NAND Flash, Wafer*** is the fastest, with a cumulative increase of nearly 50%. ”
The models with faster growth are mainly used in downstream smartphones, data centers and other fields. Zhang Xiaorong, president of the Deep Science and Technology Research Institute, told the reporter: "In particular, the high-capacity NAND flash products used in smart phones have risen significantly, but there are differences in different brands and batches. ”
A number of companies have been surveyed by institutions.
In the second half of this year, with the launch of new phones from major global smartphone manufacturers such as Huawei and Apple, the demand for memory chips was further stimulated. According to TrendForce, the total global smartphone production in the third quarter was about 30.8 billion, an increase of 13% month-on-month, an increase of about 6 compared with the same period in 20224%。
From the perspective of upstream wafer output value, the third quarter of this year also showed a quarter-on-quarter improvement. The output value of the world's top 10 wafer foundries is 282$900 million, up 79%。
Recently, a number of A-share memory chip listed companies have ushered in intensive research by institutions, and investors have paid high attention to the sustainability of the price increase of original wafers and the acceptance of the downstream.
BIWIN Storage said in an institutional survey that from the demand side, the demand in the field of artificial intelligence has increased, driven by the large number of new smartphones launched by major manufacturers, the market situation has improved, and the fluctuation of memory has gradually been transmitted downstream, which has stimulated customers to actively stock up.
Another listed company, Longsys, also said: "The semiconductor storage market has a specific transmission mechanism, and there is a time difference in the process of transmission, so there is also a certain time difference in its impact on the company's operation." At present, the original factory strictly controls the pace of shipment, and downstream manufacturers are actively stocking up. ”
The current round of destocking cycle may be nearing the end, and the continued recovery of terminal demand is still the key. Zhu Keli, executive director of the China Information Association and founding president of the National Research Institute of New Economy, said: "In the future, with the development of artificial intelligence technology and innovation in the field of consumer electronics, it is expected to further stimulate the market demand for memory chips. ”