Commentary on changes in U.S. crude oil inventories

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-29

U.S.**Inventory change review

In the week ended Dec. 1, U.S. commercial ** inventories fell by 42590,000 barrels. This change was mainly due to the decline in net imports, which decreased by 28 in the last week70,000 barrels per day. Specifically, the inventory in the Cushing area increased by 12280,000 barrels, while padd3 regional inventories fell by 28160,000 barrels. As imports fell more than exports, coupled with stable demand in the padd3 region, this combined to drive the reduction in padd3 and overall inventories.

Refinery dynamics

U.S. refinery imports fell 1040,000 barrels per day, to 1,60970,000 barrels per day. Refinery runs also fell by 02%, to 903%。Although downstream margins have weakened, they are still good compared to previous years. The operating rate of the refinery did not increase but decreased, mainly due to the phased shutdown of some production capacity. According to IIR statistics, refining capacity will decline slightly this week, which means that the operating rate and feeding level will still not be able to effectively improve next week.

**Production vs. rig count

U.S. ** production remained at 13.1 million barrels per day. The number of active rigs decreased by 2 to 503. At present, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States has basically remained near 500 rigs, and there is no obvious upward or downward trend.

Refined oil product stocks

U.S. oil product inventories fell by 574 percent last week70,000 barrels. This change is more due to the marginal improvement in domestic demand in the United States, which rose by 146 last week80,000 barrels per day to 2,10790,000 barrels per day. There has been no significant change in the export level of refined oil products.

Gasoline stocks

U.S. gasoline inventories rose by 40 percent last week90,000 barrels. Despite the improvement in domestic demand in the United States, the gasoline gauge increased by 3930,000 barrels per day, but gasoline exports also continued to improve, with exports up 1830,000 barrels per day. Recently, gasoline profits have been relatively stable, with no significant improvement or weakening expectations. It should be noted that subsequent gasoline exports from the United States may begin to weaken marginally, as new refineries will come on stream in Mexico in the fourth quarter of this year.

Distillate stocks

U.S. distillate inventories rose by 149 percent last week40,000 barrels. Although demand rebounded slightly, an increase in imports and a decrease in exports led to a marginal increase in inventories. Recently, U.S. diesel profits have weakened slightly, mainly due to a decline in distillate exports. At the same time, the United States has increased imports of medium and heavy ** to Mexico, which will gradually affect the switching of the U.S. diesel-to-gas ratio.

Summary

Last week's overall data was relatively flat. Although there has been a destocking of the **, it is mainly due to changes at the export level. The logic of the increase in the operating rate in the United States and the destocking of inventories is not clearly reflected at present. If we want to see a significant improvement in the fundamentals of U.S. oil, we also need to see the resonance of domestic and foreign demand. Subsequently, based on the gradual increase in the operating rate, there will be support from the monthly difference.

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Important: This report strives to be objective and unbiased in its contents, citations and data. Reliable, accurate and complete to the best of its ability, but does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information stated in the reportThe information provided in this report is for reference only and is not used as the basis for investment decisions。Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.

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