Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that interest rates have "entered" restrictive territory, with a more dovish tone;According to Wind, data on December 1 showed that the ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was 46 in November7, expected 478, the previous value of 467. It has shrunk for 13 consecutive months, the longest shrinkage cycle in 20 years. According to Wind, the market expects a 74% probability of interest rate cuts in 2024, and gold prices are expected to hit a new high again.
Last week's major economic data showed that economic conditions in the United States and Europe were on the verge of recession after entering the fourth quarter, and the market's expectations for the global economy in 2024 continued to decline, and the 10-year Treasury rate fell to 4It is expected that with the further control of overseas inflation, the overseas high interest rate environment is expected to end ahead of schedule, and it is expected to rise, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the progress of overseas recession in the long run.
At present, some cost-effective retail formats have attracted high attention, including snack discount stores, hard discount supermarkets, outlets, and live broadcast e-commerce, and Pinduoduo's 3Q2023 performance is also significantly better than that of other shelf e-commerce. We recommend investors to continue to pay attention to the trend of retail channel change, especially those related to cost-effective channels.
The overall consumption of the market is still slowly recovering, and from the perspective of the subdivision track, the bull and bear ride believe that the first jewelry track is recommended. On the one hand, there may be a slowdown in the US dollar rate hike cycle,** or there will be trading opportunities;On the other hand, inflation may be moderate next year, which will be conducive to the improvement of gold prices. With the U.S. inflation data and the marginal slowdown in the job market, the market's expectations for the U.S. tightening monetary policy pivot may continue to advance, and it is expected to be **expected**.
Looking back at history, we can find that looking back at the two rounds of interest rate cut cycles in 2007 and 2019, gold prices and stocks were both obvious before the interest rate cut. The Fed began cutting interest rates on September 18, 2007: Comex** rose 9% in March before the cut. The Fed began cutting interest rates on August 1, 2019: COMEX** rose by 15% in the three months before the cut.
*The negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index has increased significantly, ** for the U.S. dollar and some substitutions of the credit currency system, the U.S. dollar index may weaken in 2024, which is good for gold prices. The U.S. manufacturing PMI was 46 in November7. Atrophy for 13 consecutive months, the longest contraction cycle in 20 years. Looking forward to 2024, the slowdown in U.S. economic growth is a high probability event, the relative advantage of the U.S. economy over non-U.S. economies is no longer there, and the U.S. dollar index may continue to decline, which is good for gold prices.
The Fed's interest rate hike may end, the expectation of future interest rate cuts will gradually increase, and the decline in real interest rates will highlight the value of allocation, and it is expected to usher in long-term investment opportunities. This week's core focus is on the two Fed ** "doves", the Fed's interest rate cut window may be advanced to next spring, gold prices rose during the week. Fed Governor Waller said that if inflation continues to decline steadily, the Fed could decide to cut its benchmark interest rate as early as next spring.
With the trend of inflation in the United States falling + economic damage signals appear frequently, it is expected that the follow-up gold price is expected to continue to hit a new high, riding bulls and bears believe that the Federal Reserve interest rate hike may be nearing the end, interest rate cut expectations are accelerating, and the ** sector is expected to usher in an excellent layout point. At the same time, as the wave of geopolitical tensions + de-dollarization continues, the enhancement of safe-haven attributes and credit attributes will provide medium and long-term support for gold prices.