Facing up to the gap is the premise of catching up, and now the "establishment" of this premise has penetrated a beam of light, and it remains to be seen whether this light can find a way. Recently, the Aerospace Science and Technology Group's "Consciously Enhance the Sense of Distress....The article attracted widespread attention, and Guangming.com also published a commentator's article "When We Propose to Benchmark SpaceX". If you decide to set off, the key question is not where the destination is, but what the "focus" is, what is the path. In other words, what to do. SpaceX has already made a sample, and we can already follow the map in the first step, without having to reinvent the wheel. Therefore, the most critical issues, the so-called "focus" mentioned above, fall on two points: the individual and the environment. Individual: How SpaceX does the environment: What makes SpaceX able to do it Let's expand on it. How SpaceX did itThe current state of SpaceX can be seen at a glance through the key words of launch capability, market-leading Starlink system, and national empathy. Launch capabilityAs of December 3, SpaceX has completed a total of 91 launches in 2023 (100 were planned for the beginning of the year). In the last 5 years, this number has been: 21 in 2018, 13 in 2019, 26 in 2020 and 61 in 2022. 
Figure SpaceX launch quality (2018-2023.)11) In addition to the number of launches, what is more commendable is the quality of the launch payload. As of the end of November, SpaceX has completed a cumulative launch payload mass of 1,041 tons in 2023. (In 2022, the United States launched a payload mass of 734 tons, and China 197 tons).Marketplace**The powerful launch capability brings a very competitive launch**, compared with the global launch**, the Falcon rocket and the future Star Arrow, the launch ** "cliff-like" decline. 
Figure Space Launch** interval (Falcon 9 and Star Arrow estimates).Starlink systemAs of December 3, 2023, the total number of low-orbit Internet constellations launched by SpaceX Starlink has reached 5,536, and about 5,166 are still in orbit. 
Figure: Starlink's service area: SpaceX has opened Starlink services to most parts of the world, and has begun to cooperate with the United States to plan to build a military version of Starlink-Starshield. According to the public introduction on the official website of SpaceX, Star Shield is designed for ** (military) use, and the main design direction is earth observation, communication, and hosting payloads. National empathyThe impact of SpaceX is by no means only the ability to launch rockets and satellite communications, but has formed a "relay" with the patriotic enthusiasm and national pride of Americans based on space capabilities, which was formed in the Apollo era, once again arousing the national pride of the United States and providing a strong support for the American dream. 
Figure When the spaceX satellite arrow was launched, the public spontaneously observed the grand occasion The United States has always been divided and divided in the political field, but in major scientific and technological fields, it has always been the best of national self-confidence and the importance of cohesion. What makes SpaceX?A few points can usually be summed up: Musk's personal sense of mission and appeal are rapidly iterating, reshaping the commercial drive of system engineering, market traction, and national task traction The high starting point formed in the Boeing and Loma era "No matter how Musk criticizes how bloated and inefficient Boeing Loma is, there is no doubt that without Boeing Loma's early exploration and accumulation, it would be impossible for SpaceX to stand on the shoulders of giants. "In view of the fact that the United States has always taken market players as the main participants in the aerospace field, the above perspective is quite a dialogue style with Chinese characteristics, but in any case, everything has its past and present life, and the deconstruction of the current state should not only look into the future, but also look at the past. Therefore, when China's aerospace industry wants to benchmark against SpaceX, it is particularly worth thinking about whether our national team currently has the system engineering management capabilities and research achievements that have been formed since the Boeing Loma era. From the perspective of state-owned aerospace as the core strategic force of China's aerospace, whether the state-owned aerospace should be allowed to align with SpaceX is a very important question. State-owned aerospace should focus more on cutting-edge fields and deep space fields, and release the space for low-orbit construction to drive the development of commercial aerospace. If state-owned aerospace competes with commercial aerospace, it will inevitably have a major impact on how far commercial aerospace can go in the future. If the state-owned aerospace becomes the carrier of the benchmark SpaceX, will we lose the characteristics of the state-owned aerospace that we have painstakingly built up with the principle of stability and reliability, from one extreme to the other, it is really worth thinking clearly in advance. From the development of commercial aerospace in the United States, we can find some references, that is, when the United States supports SpaceX, it is achieved through low-orbit commercial missions and service procurement, rather than letting Boeing Loma transform, which is a proven and effective strategy, and it is a necessary risk control, otherwise it is possible that SpaceX does not come out and loses its existing advantages. For example, the Tongchuan Power Test Base (i.e., the Tongchuan Test Center for China Aerospace New Power), which will be built in 2021, plans to build more than 10 large-scale aerospace liquid power test facilities. According to news reports, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the aerospace commercial development under the Sixth Academy will face the market, customers and the whole, and strive to build a commercial aerospace engine marketing system, scientific research and production management system, and quality system, and build a pulsating production line with 300 annual capacity. Should the national aerospace team take it as its own responsibility to achieve a far lead in the core field of aerospace, and then build a large number of buildings and pursue commercial success after this goal is achieved? In the context of excessive pursuit of commercial gains, how to fulfill the responsibility of developing a major country's heavy weapons?It is necessary to set a good position and guide a good direction. What makes SpaceX able to do it
When we look at SpaceX, we need to open up the space and build a broader perspective: there is more to the United States than SpaceX. Specifically, SpaceX represents the ultimate achievement in a field, so SpaceX is only one of the many super unicorns in the United States, looking to the future, in the fields of high-end semiconductors, space launches, and artificial intelligence, the United States is giving birth to new giants that will surpass Magnificent7, with a current volume of $100 billion, and the future will be a trillion-dollar market value and a high degree of global monopoly power. In today's topic, we will only talk about the growth environment of SpaceX from the growth process, industry management, official support, and open market. Growing up was full of questionsFor the initial questionability, SpaceX's experience is no different from the development of China's commercial spaceflight, which is inevitable and natural. From the perspective of market economy, the society has no obligation to give recognition and support to emerging things, and only after experiencing tempering and proving its vitality can we talk about recognition and respect. From this point of view, China and the United States are similar, and the process of China's commercial aerospace development has also been questioned by scientific research institutes and all parties in society, which is normal and reasonable. The whole process is accompanied by official support and supportSince 2018, the United States**, the military and other institutions have given SpaceX many tasks at different times. From this point of view, the U.S. strategy in the field of commercial space is clear and clear, and SpaceX is regarded as the carrier and grasp of the strategy. 
Figure SpaceX payload type distribution (2018-present) has reshaped the capabilities and landscape of U.S. space through a leading company, establishing a new era. (Star Arrow Transport** reduced to 200 US dollars per kilogram of air transport** level, a single transport of 200 tons, will soon achieve intercontinental point-to-point transportation).
Figure In recent years, the U.S. military has commissioned SpaceX's project, photo source Space safety follow-up On December 11, the SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will also undertake the X-37B orbital test vehicle (OTV-7) launch mission (185 x 35188 km x 48.).25 degree inclined track). Industry management initiatives that change with the timesOn November 17th, the day before the launch of Star Arrow Y2, SpaceX replaced the actuation mechanism of the rocket grid rudder, which is certainly the embodiment of the daring ability of SpaceX to develop to the present stage, but behind it is the effect of the FAA's precise management of the limited objectives of the test by commercial aerospace companies in the United States, that is, to give companies like SpaceX more sufficient technical autonomy to carry out research and verification. In addition, SpaceX's current launch declaration adopts the method of submitting an annual plan for approval and simple approval for subsequent launches, which is highly operable and greatly guarantees the realization of high-frequency launches. Whether it is SpaceX that is too strong that brings such a regulatory model, or whether the regulatory model promotes SpaceX to become stronger, this is a dialectical relationship, and there are different opinions. However, seeking truth from facts and analyzing specific problems is the underlying rule of achieving high efficiency without breaking the bumps. How to guide it should be fully reflected through measures, and it is necessary to unify thinking from top to bottom, and how to strictly control and promote it effectively is a key issue. Completely open marketIf the first half of SpaceX's development is about the expansion and transcendence of SpaceX's rocket launch capabilities for national and military missions, then the second half is based on the complete opening of the market for the construction and operation of the satellite Internet to establish the dominance capability in low-Earth orbit. At present, based on the path of the United States, we can say that the future of commercial space is the Internet of low-orbit satellites, and only this super-large infrastructure can maximize the generational progress of traction launch capacity and satellite manufacturing capacity. In terms of access to the construction of low-orbit satellite Internet, the United States has achieved the "first-class system" at the level of frequency licensing, and there is no internal frequency control of the state's self-abandonment of martial arts. This is the core issue facing the construction and development of China's commercial aerospace and satellite Internet infrastructure, and it is the most important problem, that is, the construction of new space-based infrastructure cannot completely rely on the support of national financial funds (without the practical feasibility of funds), and must rely on social resources and social capital. However, only if the market can be opened, resources can be imported, in the current overall plan, the single largest Party A for the construction of satellite Internet of Things is still the state, which means that the national funds must be the largest or even the only buyer, whether it works, self-evident. What is the liberalization of the market?That is, "cats and dogs" can participate in the construction and operation of satellite Internet. As long as the market can be active and the business closed-loop can be run through, it can be developed, improved, and governed at the same time. When the commercial aerospace industry was just in its infancy, there were many expressions from traditional aerospace, to the effect that aerospace is something that the country does, not something that "cats and dogs" can do. This kind of thinking and rhetoric is very worthy of consideration, who is the country, and who is "a cat and a dog". Standing at the moment, the country is the husband, and the so-called rise and fall of the country is the responsibility of the husband;If this is indeed the case, a foundation for China's aerospace (referring to China's aerospace industry) from big to strong is that "cats and dogs" can also participate in the construction and contribute. Returning to the satellite Internet, domestic commercial space is in action, and progress has been made. The satellite company Galaxy Aerospace has opened a hole in the construction and operation of the satellite Internet project, and has also proved through its strength that commercial enterprises can participate in the construction and operation of the satellite Internet project on an equal footing, and can also be used as a frequency operator, and even become a new force in the field. Look to the future and be friends with timeChina's commercial space development, including:"The Chinese version of SpaceX"It cannot be achieved overnight. However, based on the characteristics of the industry and the laws of the aerospace industry itself (strong R&D, heavy investment, and long cycle), it is predictable that China's commercial aerospace industry will be sold after a hundred battles. Although China's industry is prone to extreme involution, as far as commercial aerospace is concerned, satellite and rocket companies can be combined.
It is an optimistic estimate that the three or five will eventually survive and grow.
At the peak of the development of the United States, there were no more than 50 major commercial aerospace companies, which is of course due to the protection of intellectual property rights in the United States and the resulting higher pursuit of differentiated positioning by start-ups, but the result is that less than 10 companies have returned to rockets and satellites and applications, and have established their leading positions in their respective fields. In such an industry where the strong Hengqiang (under spacex, it is all scorched earth) and the oligarchic attribute is obvious, how can the country and society be targeted to avoid the situation of "scattered flowers" and "eyebrows and noses" that will bring about "rushing up" and "chicken feathers in one place", from the perspective of realizing efficient and intensive resources, especially in combination with the current financial side, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research and rational judgment. Taking Emposat as an example, it has built a commercial satellite ground station network with more than 50 sets of ground stations, covering the whole of Europe, Asia, South America and most of Africa. This belongs to the moat that has been established in the field of measurement and control, and the establishment of the moat takes time, and most of these times cannot be bought by money. 
Figure Emposat Satellite Tracking and Control Command Center, picture source Guangming Network commercial aerospace enterprises must be friends of time, look at the current commercial aerospace enterprises, it depends on whose friends time has been, and have accumulated a moat based on time. At the Aerospace Information Industry Conference held in Chongqing in November, Xu Ming, CEO of Galaxy Aerospace, mentioned in his speech that commercial aerospace should dare to be a major power, which is deeply true. 
What is a major power heavy weapon that belongs to commercial spaceflight?The major power of commercial aerospace must not be a Mars rover, a relay satellite or a space station, but a technical route and product that fills the gap in state-owned aerospace. In the fields of rockets, satellites, TT&C, remote sensing applications, and communication payloads, there have been obvious leading enterprises, and they have achieved great competitive advantages in financing, infrastructure, R&D investment, breakthroughs in key products, filling gaps, and successful verification. In the future, the biggest enemy of the leading companies in each track in the field is themselves, as long as they do not make mistakes, they can see the light of day. It may not be difficult to face up to the gap, but finding the path is the key. Those things in space.