The dynamics of the battlefield in Ukraine are gradually revealed. Although the Russian army suffered a setback at the beginning, it then began to respond seriously and fix the loopholes. As the Russian army takes it seriously, there will be less and less room for the Ukrainian military to break through, and in recent months there has been a decline in several theaters. Even the United States** Biden went to Ukraine to support Zelensky in person, regardless of his personal safety, which shows that the situation is indeed not optimistic. Therefore, many people are thinking that if Ukraine is really defeated, will they not be able to repay the money they owed us because of the Madasich incident before?What will be the fate of this country?
Is there still a possibility of a comeback in Ukraine?In my opinion, Ukraine is doomed. Someone will also ask: before the start of the war, the whole world thought that Ukraine would lose, but what was the result?They later performed well, so they were not allowed to continue to work miracles?The Russia-Ukraine war has been going on for more than a year. In this year, the changes on the battlefield are indeed unpredictable, and it is a pleasure to get up. At the beginning of the war, the world generally believed that Russia, as the second largest military power, would be unreasonable towards Ukraine. Soon, Ukraine will no longer find a place on the world map.
However, to everyone's surprise, this former giant of the north, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has become so weak that it is unbelievable. The expected one-sided reversal did not appear, on the contrary, the battle situation has been confusing. Ukraine, which was considered vulnerable, unexpectedly showed tenacity, even forcing Russian troops to withdraw east of the Dnieper River at one point. Just when the tide of the war was about to tilt on the side of Ukraine, the international ** began to question the strength of the Russian army. However, at that time, Putin suddenly made a force and announced the expansion of the army, which once again reversed the situation. This Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is like sitting on a seesaw, making it unpredictable who will have the last laugh.
But I don't think that's the end of the seesaw game, and there won't be any big fluctuations in the future. Why?Because judging by the current situation, Ukraine is no longer capable of working miracles, as it did at the beginning. Ukraine was able to defeat the strong with the weak, not because they were too strong, but because Russia was too weak. Sun Tzu once said: Know yourself and know your opponent, and win all battles. However, before the start of the war, the Russian side did not know neither its own strength nor the strength of the enemy. They overestimated their military strength and underestimated the strength of the Ukrainian ** army.
Russia's initial battle plan was to "dig out the heart of the black tiger" and go straight to Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, to prepare for a decisive battle. However, the army's poor coordination and insufficient logistical firepower led to a siege. Subsequently, the threat of the Ukrainian ** army made the Russian army have to retreat in disgrace. On the Russian-Ukrainian front, the contracted strength is only 100,000. These forces need to be fortified everywhere on the Ukrainian plains, and this defense is all-encompassing but all-encompassing, with little effect. Russia did not realize that its perception of the Ukrainian army was still stuck six years ago, so it failed to increase its troops in time after the failed decapitation.
With the help of US satellite intelligence, the Ukrainian army found out the layout of the Russian army, concentrated its forces to attack the weak points of its defenses, and won many counterattacks. As a result, the Russian defense line was so precarious that it was even forced east of the Dnieper River at one point. However, behind Ukraine's successes are Russia's mistakes, and these mistakes are not permanent, let alone irreparable. As the war continues, the Russian army will recognize its own shortcomings from the data fed back from the battlefield and correct them, such as launching a general mobilization, recruiting more soldiers, and changing its timid tactical attitude to launch strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure and power network.
If a victory depends on a mistake by the opponent, then such a victory will be extremely dangerous. Because if you can't take the opportunity to defeat the opponent in one fell swoop, the opponent will have a chance to correct the mistake. As Russia continues to make up for its shortcomings, its strength will grow day by day, and Ukraine's opportunistic opportunities will diminish day by day, and eventually the war will evolve into a contest of comprehensive national strength. Ukraine failed to take advantage of Russia's mistakes to crush the other side in one fell swoop, and as Russia responds seriously, Ukraine will be in a difficult situation, no longer having the same situation as last year. It is difficult to determine whether the support of NATO countries behind Ukraine will be enough to save the situation.
In the early days of the war, Russia's strong pro-Western tradition still gave them illusions about NATO countries. In the early days of the war in Ukraine, Russian forces appeared timid and unwilling to cause harm to innocent people or destroy Ukraine's infrastructure. On the contrary, the ** of Western countries is constantly being sent to the front with the help of these facilities. However, now Russia has begun to take actions to destroy Ukraine's infrastructure, which will greatly weaken the efficiency of Western countries in sending ** to the Ukrainian front.
For example, there used to be a road in good condition in Ukraine, and Western countries could use express trains to transport ** from the border to the front line in one day, but now that this road has been blown up, it may take ten days or even longer to transport**. As we mentioned earlier, the war in Ukraine has entered the stage of competing for internal forces. Ukraine's crumbling infrastructure will greatly weaken the efficiency of Western countries' military projections. The asymmetry is as stark as if Russia is throwing $1 at the front, while the West may need $5 to offset it. Right now, the global economy is sluggish, and countries are not rich.
With the exception of the United Kingdom and the United States, most European countries are reluctant to put more costs into Ukraine. Germany, for example, has asked for Leopard 2 tanks, but so far it has not been realized. European countries are now forced to continue to support only because of pressure from the United States, but the pressure on the United States is also about to wane. Because not long ago, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi led a delegation to Europe with the aim of mediating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, China published a public article in which it explicitly attacked US hegemonism. Coupled with China's recent successful mediation in the Saudi-Iranian conflict, China's influence is growing.
Behind the successful mediation is China's ability to create a new order. 3,000 years ago, Xibohou Jichang successfully mediated the dispute between Yu and Rui, and Zhou Bangguo was also appointed as king to fight against the Shang Dynasty. Ancient and modern. Now that China is helping, the United States will no longer dare to force Europe. This is because the current mainstream of the world is the confrontation between China and the United States. Third-party countries like Russia, Europe, and India are all eager for China and the United States to go to war as soon as possible, because if the two go to war, they will be able to benefit from both sides. Trump was bent on containing China.
The leaders of Europe at that time, including Merkel, actively developed relations with Russia and tried to build a third power independent of China and the United States. The emergence of this development trend means that Europe is expected to break free from US control. With Biden coming to power, they are eager to foment a war in Ukraine, because the United States is more worried about the rise of the "Russian-European alliance" than the rise of China. If Russia and Europe unite, their strength may even surpass that of China, and the loss of Europe, a semi-colony, will challenge the hegemony of the United States. In the current situation, the United States has to choose between China and Europe, while Biden is mainly focusing on Europe.
Despite his tough stance on China, it cannot be overlooked that the antagonism between China and the United States has eased during the Biden administration. Now that China is the first to attack the United States, the United States must shift its focus to the East. Europe is already reluctant to participate, and without US intervention, Ukraine's war machine will inevitably go out. Therefore, the defeat of Ukraine is basically only a matter of time, and the only suspense is a concrete solution. As for the specific solution, there may be the following possibilities: first, Ukraine will give up the territory of the four eastern regions of Ukraine to Russia, and the two sides will reach a settlement.
Russia may accept it, but it is unlikely that the West will accept it, because they do not want to get such a result after such a big upheaval, and they can't get by on the face!Face itself is also very important to them, especially at the critical moment of the Sino-US confrontation, and they can't let the little brother in the middle of the ground look down on themselves. Second, Russia essentially occupies eastern Ukraine, but Ukraine does not recognize it nominally, which will leave a pretext for the other side to reasonably recover lost territory in the future, bringing endless troubles in the future. If this is the case, Russia's war will be fought in vain, and Putin will definitely not be able to accept this result, otherwise he will not be able to account for it to the people at home.
In my opinion, the most likely outcome is the third scenario, which would be very unpleasant if it did. Poland has been frequently expressing its claims to the territory of western Ukraine during the Russia-Ukraine war, which is related to its experience of being destroyed by Russia several times in its history. Perhaps influenced by the pain of national annihilation, Poland had certain ambitions for the surrounding territories. The West could solve this face-saving problem if it allowed Poland to take custody and occupy the western regions of Ukraine. Considering that Poland is a member of NATO, this is actually equivalent to secretly allowing part of Ukraine to join NATO.
For the West, it is not much of a shame, because one of the main reasons why Russia started this war is that Ukrainian Zelensky wants to join NATO. Now, the West can hold its head high and say that it has not failed, after all, Russia cannot prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. What's even more amazing is that Putin seems to be accepting of this as well. His reaction to Ukraine's accession to NATO was not as strong as that of Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO.
Although there are rumors that Ukraine's borders are closer to Russia and that missiles can go straight to Huanglong, and in fact the dividing line between Finland and Sweden is closer to Russia, Putin did not react similarly strongly. The most fundamental reason is that Ukraine has a huge industrial potential. If Ukraine's military power is activated by NATO, a hostile military power will appear on Russia's doorstep with unimaginable consequences. The industrial potential of Ukraine is mainly concentrated in the four eastern regions of Ukraine, while the western regions are mainly agricultural regions with limited development potential. Even if he joins NATO, he does not pose a threat to Putin.
As long as the other side recognizes that the four regions of eastern Ukraine are Russian territory, everything can be discussed. Doing so will continue to exacerbate tensions between Russia and the EU. The feud between Poland and Russia is as deep as the sea, and if the two countries border each other, it will inevitably lead to serious disputes, and the EU will have a headache at that time. Therefore, this is the most likely scenario. In either case, Ukraine previously owed us more than 4 billion debts, which will certainly not be able to be repaid. Even if Ukraine survives, it will inevitably lose its core four eastern oblasts, leaving only some less valuable agricultural areas.
Ukraine has been in a shambled and devastated state in the wake of the war, with a clear inability to repay its debts. It has been suggested that Ukraine should be pledged with assets, but it should be noted that Ukraine's largest creditor is not China, but the United States and Western countries, which owe dozens of times more than China. Given Ukraine's close relations with these countries, even if there is a real intention to repay its debts, priority must be given to them. If Ukraine comes up with all its assets to repay its debts, China may not even get the scum. In addition, given the character of Ukrainian ** Zelensky, he will certainly wave the sad card and put China in a moral dilemma.
Even if he does not, the United States will exert pressure, as it did last year with bankrupt Sri Lanka. After all, Ukraine has just gone through an invasion, and it seems a little inhumane to go to collect debts at this time. At that time, Ukraine will inevitably claim to be able to repay when it can afford to do so, and when it will be able to do so depends entirely on their wishes. If the third scenario arises, needless to say, if the country of Ukraine disappears, the previous debt will naturally disappear. Ukraine is really a poor country, and after being betrayed, it has to bear the consequences for itself.