4H energy storage, which will only begin to rise in the second half of 2023, is very likely to take off in 2024.
Written by |Honghai.
Produced by |Planetary Energy Storage Institute.
In recent years, the installed capacity of new energy power generation has shown an explosive growth trend, wind and solar projects in various places have been continuously implemented and connected to the grid, and the penetration rate of new energy power generation has been increasing. And because of its "relying on the sky to eat" characteristic,The higher the penetration rate of new energy power generation, the higher the requirements for energy storage time.
When sorting out this year's winning bid information, we found that from the perspective of energy storage duration,2-hour energy storage is still the absolute mainstreamVarious system procurement and energy storage EPC still mainly choose 2-hour energy storage;Most of the 1-hour energy storage projects are applied in user-side energy storage projects, such as industrial and commercial energy storage.
But it's worth mentioning4H energy storage as a whole shows a growth trend, both in terms of system procurement and energy storage projects.
According to incomplete statistics from public information, as of November 2023, a total of 15 4H energy storage system projects and 18 energy storage EPC projects have issued bid-winning announcements.
The number of energy storage system projects by month of the year
Planetary Energy Storage Institute.
From the perspective of the energy storage system as a whole,The 2-hour duration is absolutely mainstream in energy storage of various durations, whileThanks to the boom in industrial and commercial development this year, 1-hour energy storage will be selected in some small-scale industrial and commercial projectsTherefore, as shown in the figure, 1-hour energy storage still has more applications in the second half of this year, and like 1-hour energy storage, the 4-hour energy storage, which was also silent in the first half of the year, has also begun to accelerate construction in the second half of this year, and has a good momentum of development.
This is less through unknown informationEnergy storage EPC projectLooking more intuitively, since July, the construction of 4-hour energy storage projects has begun to accelerate, and the number of 1-hour energy storage projects has exceeded the number of 1-hour energy storage projects after AugustFor the first time in November, the number of energy storage exceeded 2 hours.
The number of 4h energy storage EPC projects in each month of the year
Planetary Energy Storage Institute.
From the specific point of view of the energy storage system, in the first half of 2023, there will be 4-hour energy storage projects almost every other month, and the number is very small, but after entering the second half of the year, 4-hour energy storage projects will begin to increase, and there will be projects promoted basically every monthAnd the number has increased since the first half of the year.
Changes in the proportion of 4-hour energy storage system projects in each month of the year
Planetary Energy Storage Institute.
From the perspective of energy storage EPC, although the whole trend is similar to that of energy storage systems, in terms of quantity ratio, 4-hour energy storage is growing rapidlyFrom about 10% in the first half of the year, it grew rapidly in the second half of the year, reaching 40% at its peak.
Changes in the proportion of 4H energy storage EPC projects in each month of the year
Planetary Energy Storage Institute.
In addition to the above information, there are many aspects of news that can be seen that the scale of 4-hour energy storage is continuing to growAt the same time, these factors are also accelerating its upward development.
First, policy-driven
At present, the industry defines energy storage of 4 hours or more as long-term energy storage, and many regions have also launched support policies for long-term energy storageFor energy storage of 4 hours and above, there are support and incentive policies in terms of projects and technologies.
The Shandong Energy Bureau issued the "Several Measures to Support the Pilot Application of Long-term Energy Storage", including but not limited to compressed air, flow batteries, etcMeet 6 support policies, including 4-hour energy storage and related requirements, electricity prices, and project-related subsidy support.
On December 27, the General Department of the National Energy Administration issued a formula notice on a new batch of new energy storage pilot demonstration projects, according to the content of the notice, among the 56 new energy storage pilot demonstration projects,The amount of energy storage in the 4-hour duration accounts for a full quarter of the demonstration projects.
On December 27, the proportion of 4H projects of new energy storage pilot demonstration projects was announced
Planetary Energy Storage Institute.
At present, many provinces are promoting energy storage technology research and pilot demonstration projects of 4 hours or moreand with corresponding policy support.
Second, market demand
The increasing penetration rate of wind and solar power generation has brought the demand for system peak regulation while bringing clean energyWith the increasing scale of new energy power generation, it will be difficult to support the energy storage time of 2 hours, and the demand for energy storage for 4 hours and above will gradually increase.
**The opinions on the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry require that for guaranteed grid-connected projects, the distribution and storage time shall not be less than 4 hoursAt the same time, it has excellent wind and solar resource endowment and rich land resources, and its energy storage market should not be underestimated, and if you want to enter the market, you mustFirst get the "pass" of 4 hours of energy storage time.
Not only domestically, but also overseas has begun to promote the development of 4-hour energy storage. For European and American countries, energy storage of 4 hours or more has a stronger ability to meet their winter and summer peak and valley needs than general energy storage, and will play a key role in their power grids in the future.
A 4-hour energy storage system in California, USA, built by Fluence
According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) studyLonger energy storage times lead to better grid resilienceLong-term energy storage technology is likely to play a more important and functional role in the grid in the coming years.
Third, the development and progress of energy storage technology
The development and progress of energy storage technology has promoted the development process of 4-hour energy storage. ExceptCompressed air energy storage, gravity energy storage, flow batteriesA series of newer technical routes are on the rise, a fewThe old lithium battery army has also kicked off the prelude to reformContinue to invest in the field of research and development, update and iterate lithium battery products.
Some time ago, Hichain Energy Storage released the world's first KAH long-term energy storage battery MIC 1130AH. Here it isIn view of the development trend of electric energy storage to a larger scale, large-capacity batteries are specially designed for the long-term energy storage marketProducts.
At present, many leading energy storage companies such as Envision Energy, CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, and BYD have also begun to lay out the energy storage market for 4 hours and above.
TOP10 in the number of bids for 4H energy storage system projects in the year
Planetary Energy Storage Institute.
In addition to this,Many factors such as the optimization and improvement of time-of-use electricity prices in various provinces, lower LCOE, and long-term development strategic layout are all promoting the development of 4-hour energy storage.
The energy storage of 4 hours is compared to the longer timeThe closest to the market, the easiest to achieve, and the most reasonable returns, its future development is bound to be bright.
Chen Yongchong, director of the Green Energy Storage Research Institute of Tsinghua Sichuan Energy Internet Research Institute, saidPower-based energy storage is just an "appetizer", and capacity-based energy storage is the "main meal", which determines the scale development of electrochemical energy storage in the future.
In the future, the large-scale development of new energy will solve the intermittent problem by then. WhilePower-based energy storage is only enough to solve the problem of volatility, and the intermittent problem must be solved by capacity-based energy storage.
4H energy storage, which will only begin to rise in the second half of 2023, is very likely to take off in 2024. 2024 is also very likely to be the first year of the outbreak of 4H energy storage.