Recently, the remarks of Xu Gao, chief economist of Bank of China International and adjunct professor of Peking University Development Institute, have aroused heated discussions among netizens. He believes that the short-term real estate market is oversupplied, but supply and demand will reverse in the near future, and the pressure on housing prices is very high. This view has sparked a discussion about the future direction of the property market. However, some netizens objected to Professor Xu Gao's views. They believe that Xu Gao's argument is too one-sided, and only extrapolates from the construction area and the area of construction to infer the lack of supply and demand of housing prices in the future. This article will combine relevant data and opinions, ** the possibility of property market changes in the next 5 years.
At present, the property market has entered a downward trend, and this downward trend may not be reversed. One of the reasons is that there is a surplus of commercial housing in China. According to the data released by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are currently about 600 million houses in China, most of which are residential. Even if there are only 400 million homes, there will be enough for 2 billion people. Therefore, we can see that there are a large number of vacant houses in many cities in China, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities, with a housing vacancy rate of more than 30%. In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of October, the area of commercial housing for sale was 648.35 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 181%。These properties for sale require tens of millions of people to digest. To sum up, judging from the total number of existing houses and the vacancy and sale situation, the state of surplus in the property market in the next few years may not be reversed.
However, the downturn in the property market is also affected by factors such as aging, young people not getting married, and declining birthrates. These social changes have led to a decrease in demand, further exacerbating the downward trend in the property market. Compared with the past, the property market has lost its momentum. Even if the policy is greatly relaxed, it will be difficult to activate the property market. Therefore, the general trend of the downward trend of the property market in the next five years may not be reversed.
In the past, the property market was lucrative and attracted a large number of developers to participate. However, with the downward trend of the property market, even large real estate companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden have also encountered difficulties, and those developers who do not have the strength will naturally be eliminated by the market. According to economist Ren Zeping's view in the "Top Ten Chinese Economic Enterprises in 2023", 90% of real estate companies may disappear in the future. This is not alarmist, but because the property market will be fiercely competitive in the future, and only strong developers will be able to survive the fierce competition. Therefore, real estate developers will usher in a major reshuffle in the next five years.
This reshuffle will bring about some positive changes. On the one hand, high-quality real estate developers will be able to further improve the quality of products and services to meet the needs of consumers. On the other hand, competition in the real estate market will intensify, providing consumers with more choice and more competitiveness**. Therefore, although this reshuffle will cause some real estate companies to withdraw, it may be a positive change for the entire property market.
Recently, it was reported that China will carry out affordable housing pilots in 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million, providing 6 million sets of affordable housing. This means that in the future, many families who originally wanted to buy a home may choose to abandon the home purchase plan and choose to apply for affordable housing. At that time, the property market may appear in a state of "polarization", that is, large-scale commercial housing** will remain high, while small-scale commercial housing may depreciate.
The emergence of this possibility is due to the state's emphasis on and promotion of affordable housing policies. Affordable housing** will provide more options for low-income people in need and ease their housing pressure. However, this will also have a certain impact on some commercial housing markets, especially small commercial housing. Therefore, in the next five years, the commercial housing market may be "polarized", and consumers need to consider their own needs and economic capabilities more comprehensively when buying a house.
To sum up, there may be three changes in the property market in the next five years. First of all, the downward trend of the property market may not be reversed, affected by the market surplus and social changes. Secondly, real estate developers will usher in a major reshuffle, and only strong companies can survive in the fierce competition. Finally, the commercial housing market may be "polarized", with large house prices high and stable, and small houses may depreciate.
For ordinary consumers, in the face of these possible changes, they need to be more rational and comprehensively consider the timing and way of buying a house. Buying a house is not only to meet the needs of housing, but also to consider one's own financial ability and future development. In addition, it is also necessary to strengthen the supervision of the property market to prevent market volatility and unhealthy competitive behavior. Only by reasonably guiding the development of the property market can the market run more smoothly and orderly.
The future direction of the property market is a complex issue, which needs to consider the impact of multiple factors. Based on relevant data and views, this article conducts **and** on the changes in the property market in the next 5 years. However, the views of the article are for reference only, and the final conclusion needs to be determined according to the actual situation and policy adjustments. It is hoped that the discussion in this article can be helpful to readers to understand and think about the future property market.