It seems that just yesterday, major financial ** reported on high global inflation. But in the future, the situation seems to be going to take a "180-degree turn".
In October, inflation data from many overseas countries were lower than expected, significantly lower than the peak at the beginning of the year. The latest data is even more striking: Eurozone inflation data for November fell to 24%, well below 10A peak of 6%, a decline that exceeded the market consensus.
Compared with economists surveyed, 53% of inflation data in October came in lower than expected, including the United Kingdom, the eurozone, the United States, Mexico, Australia, etc., and another 25% of the data were in line with expectations.
In many countries, the downturn in energy** is the main driver of lower inflation. For example, in the Eurozone, energy inflation exceeded 11% for two consecutive months**, while energy inflation in the UK fell to -15 in October7%。
Even excluding food and energy, core annual inflation (excluding food and energy) was lower than expected in many countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Indonesia and Japan.
The U.S. core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose year-on-year in October from 37% fell back to 35%), preliminary data for November show that this trend is becoming more pronounced. 78% of the data is below**, such as Italy's inflation rate unexpectedly fell to 0 in November7%, well below the ECB's target of 2%. In addition, Belgium has experienced deflation for two consecutive months.
Kamil Kovar, senior economist at Moody's Analytics, noted that in the eurozone:
"People may be quick to talk about inflation being too low, not too high. ”Since last year, policymakers have raised inflation upwards one after another against the backdrop of inflation exceeding expectations**. The Bank of England, for example, has adjusted its average inflation forecast for the last quarter of 2024 in several monetary policy reports over the past two years. In August 2022, this ** value was 14%；In February of this year, this value was raised to 21%；In the latest report in November, this value was further revised upwards to 34%。
Some economists believe that the central bank may also stick to a policy of high interest rates for some time. The reason is that they remain concerned about strong wage pressures and do not want financing conditions to ease prematurely.
Nonetheless, the market seems to have moved ahead of schedule, with major central banks expected to cut interest rates earlier. Susannah Streeter, senior investment and market analyst at Hargre**es Lansdown, warned that the central bank could eventually adapt to market expectations if inflation persistently falls below expectations
"This is not the first time that central banks have misjudged inflation expectations before, and despite some initial resistance, they have eventually slowly adjusted policy to meet market expectations. ”Wall Street news, welcome **app to see more.