Reporter Chen Jiayun reports from Beijing.
Customs data shows that in October 2023, China's PVC (polyvinyl chloride) export volume was 14180,000 tons, an increase of 46 percent year-on-year73%, a decrease of 368%, and the average monthly export price was 776$1. From January to October this year, the total export volume was 190780,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 868%。
In this regard, Yu Jiangzhong, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told the reporter of China Business News that since 2023, China's PVC exports have shown a continuous increasing trend. On the one hand, PVC companies take the initiative to go overseas to find cooperation opportunities and make up for the lack of domestic demand by increasing external demandOn the other hand, the demand in India, Southeast Asia and other regions is strong, and the demand for PVC in China is also increasing. From the perspective of 2024, whether it is the first factor or the demand factor, it is expected that PVC exports are expected to remain high.
As an important organic synthetic material, PVC is one of the five general synthetic resins. It is widely used in real estate, medical treatment, food, packaging, toys, automobiles, home appliances and other fields.
According to Yu Jiangzhong, the growth trend of PVC exports in 2023 is mainly due to the fact that there are three waves of export orders during the year. The first time is from the end of last year to January 2023, supported by strong domestic expectations of stable growth and the expected slowdown of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The second time was from July to August, due to the impact of factors such as the centralized maintenance of some devices such as Formosa Plastics, the global ** decreased, and China's exports ushered in opportunities. The third time was in late October, with the digestion of overseas inventories such as India, a new round of procurement cycle was released, which promoted the increase in domestic exports, which alleviated the pressure on the market to a certain extent and became a major variable in the market.
In order to meet the needs of overseas markets, many domestic companies are also actively exploring overseas markets this year.
On September 16, Xinjiang Yihua Chemical Co., Ltd. exported 116 tons of PVC to Tajikistan, which was the first time that the company's products were exported to Central Asian countries.
At the beginning of this year, the company actively explored cooperation with Central Asian countries and sent professional teams to Central Asian countries for inspection. Li Sultan, Minister of Xinjiang Yihua Business Department, once said that this is a new breakthrough for Xinjiang Yihua to expand the Central Asian market. At the beginning of July, Xinjiang Yihua participated in the 18th Kazakhstan-China Commodity Exhibition and reached sales intentions of PVC, flake soda and urea with more than 10 enterprises.
In recent years, China's PVC export increment has increased significantly, one of the major reasons is that domestic supply exceeds demand, resulting in the best export opportunities. Yu Jiangzhong explained that from 2019 to 2023, the fundamentals of PVC supply and demand will shift from tight balance to surplusFrom 2019 to 2021, the market is in a tight balance;From 2022 to 2023, the market will evolve into a surplus. In 2023, the new PVC production capacity will be released in a centralized manner, increasing the oversupply of the industry. The increase in end pressure will bring obvious pressure to the PVC market in 2022-2023, and PVC will be between 5600-6500 yuan tons in 2023, which is a historically low price and brings opportunities for domestic PVC exports.
Longzhong Information also said that since the US tide in the winter of 2020, the global PVC ** structure has changed, which has also brought opportunities for China's PVC exports.
Longzhong information mentioned that in 2023, the production load of U.S. devices will increase to more than 78%, and relevant data statistics show that the United States exported 2.26 million tons from January to September, an increase of 35% from last year's 1.67 million tons3%。Despite the increase in U.S. volumes, China's PVC exports have a significant advantage over the rest of Asia.
Yu Jiangzhong expects that the annual export volume is expected to be 225 as PVC exports remain strong since 2023780,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1486%。
Longzhong Information pointed out that at the end of 2023 and looking forward to 2024, the global PVC production capacity will continue to grow driven by the continuous launch of China's new production capacity, the volume of PVC is expected to maintain an increasing trend, and the pressure on global sales competition is expected to increase. Judging from historical data, China's PVC exports have changed from historical opportunities to competitive advantages, and a number of domestic production, product quality, sales channels, and foreign trade sales have emerged as production enterprises with perfect construction.
Editor: Dong Shuguang Proofreader: Liu Jun).