Reporter Tan Zhijuan reports from Beijing.
On November 27, the "Report on the Implementation of China's Monetary Policy for the Third Quarter of 2023" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") released by the central bank pointed out that on the whole, the precise implementation of monetary policy and continuous efforts since the beginning of this year have provided stronger support for the real economy.
In the view of industry experts, compared with the second quarter, the new mention of the report is basically the continuation and specific deployment of a series of recent meetings such as the first financial work conference on October 30 and the regular meeting of the monetary policy committee of the central bank in the third quarter on September 25, and there are also many new concerns, including more requirements for credit and further requirements for stabilizing real estate.
In terms of the economic situation, the report said that at present, China's economy has maintained a positive trend of recovery, the growth momentum has been continuously enhanced, and the transformation and upgrading have continued to advance, while also facing challenges such as uneven recovery of the world economy and unstable foundation for the stable recovery of the domestic economy. However, the fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the resilience, potential and vitality of development have been continuously demonstrated.
Huatai ** believes that the "report" for the future economic situation of the judgment positive: on the one hand, in the external environment, from the spillover of interest rate hikes to the uneven recovery, external pressure tends to ease;On the other hand, in terms of the internal environment, from insufficient demand, operational difficulties, and many hidden risks to "unstable foundation for stable recovery", the internal phased pressure has also improved.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that in the context of the continued recovery of the domestic economy and the weakening of overseas constraints, the general idea of the next stage of the policy will continue to meet the requirements of the first financial work conference, taking into account the long and short, emphasizing "promoting high-quality financial development" and "accelerating the construction of a financial power", so as to provide financial services to the real economy, expand domestic demand, stabilize foreign investment and foreign trade, and promote high-quality economic and social development.
Pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment
In terms of the main ideas of monetary policy in the next stage, the report said that a prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful, pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, enrich the monetary policy toolbox, and strive to create a good monetary and financial environment. Accurately grasp the law and new characteristics of the supply and demand of money and credit, and strengthen the dual adjustment of the total amount and structure of money. Comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, and keep the growth rate of monetary and social financing basically matching the growth rate of the nominal economy.
In the opinion of the interviewed experts, the new expression of the monetary policy tone is basically the continuation and specific deployment of the first financial work conference.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, believes that "accurately grasping the law of supply and demand of money and credit and new characteristics" means that the next credit delivery can not one-sidedly emphasize the new scale, and more attention should be paid to accurate delivery and revitalization of existing credit funds.
Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, also said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News: "On the whole, China's economy is returning to normalization, but it does not mean that the economy has achieved normal operation. Therefore, the demand of relevant capital entities and the supply of financial institutions should be effectively matched and connected, and financial institutions should match the corresponding capital supply according to the rhythm and term requirements of the capital demand of business entities. Accurately analyze and judge some new demand patterns and characteristics during the recovery period of the real economy, so as to better adapt to the needs of the real economy. ”
The report also emphasizes that "more attention should be paid to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment", in Wang Qing's view, this means that the stage of the greatest downward pressure on the economy has passed, but monetary policy will not retreat.
Wang Qing explained that unlike the second quarter report, which mainly emphasizes "counter-cyclical adjustment", this "report" once again juxtaposes cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, and clearly "pays more attention". This is mainly due to the strong momentum of macroeconomic recovery in the third quarter, "it is expected that the annual growth target of about 5% can be successfully achieved", the macroeconomic background has changed, and the demand for stable growth has declined accordingly. However, the current foundation for the economy to stabilize and rise is not solid, especially the real estate industry is still in the process of adjustment, and then in order to promote "the economy will continue to return to the normal operation track", monetary policy will also maintain a steady growth orientation and continue to work hard.
Considering that the stage of the greatest downward pressure on the economy has passed, the next policy will pay more attention to precise efforts, focusing on supporting weak links such as small and micro enterprises and the real estate industry, as well as key areas such as scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, and green development, and resolutely avoid flooding, leaving high inflation and hidden financial risks in the future. This also means that it is very unlikely that there will be a repetition of 'two interest rate cuts + two RRR cuts' so far this year in 2024, but in the context of the continued low price level, the probability of a monetary policy retreat next year is also unlikely. Wang Qing said.
Therefore, Wang Qing expects that in order to support the issuance of additional treasury bonds, it is expected that the central bank is expected to implement another comprehensive RRR cut before the end of the yearIn order to guide the financing cost of the real economy to decline steadily, especially to guide the further reduction of residential mortgage interest rates, as well as to "coordinate and coordinate financial support for local debt risk mitigation", there is also room for a slight reduction in the policy interest rate and deposit reserve ratio in 2024.
"Focus on the key points, be reasonable and moderate, advance and retreat".
In terms of structural monetary policy tools, the report pointed out that the structural monetary policy tools are "focused, reasonable and moderate, and there are advances and retreats", and the implementation of the increased re-lending and rediscount quota, the implementation of the existing tools, the optimization of the capital supply structure, the use of more financial resources to promote scientific and technological innovation, advanced manufacturing, green development and small and medium-sized enterprises, do a good job in science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, digital finance "five articles", accelerate the cultivation of new momentum, new advantages.
Liang Si told reporters: "China's monetary policy takes into account the regulation and control mode of aggregate + structure. The "five major articles" proposed by the recent financial work conference are still the key areas and directions of the future structural monetary policy tools, which are related to the formation of long-term momentum of China's economic growth, the well-being of the people, and the high-quality development of the economy. ”
Huatai** believes that structural policy tools are the focus of monetary policy. The structural direction of the third quarter is clearer, on the one hand, focusing on the "five major articles" of science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance and digital finance;On the other hand, we should pay attention to the policy tilt for private small and micro enterprises.
Wang Qing believes that the "enrichment of the monetary policy toolbox" mentioned in the report mainly refers to the possibility of further "expansion" of structural monetary policy tools. The next step is to focus on supporting the weak links and key areas of the national economy, do a good job in the "five major articles" of science and technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, and guide financial resources to further tilt towards these areas.
Since the beginning of this year, driven by policies and concentrated efforts by banks, key areas such as manufacturing, infrastructure, green, and inclusive small and micro enterprises have maintained a high investment intensity. According to the research data of the People's Bank of China, at the end of the third quarter, the growth rate of the balance of green loans in domestic and foreign currencies, medium and long-term industrial loans, inclusive small and micro loans, and medium and long-term loans for infrastructure was .1%, which is higher than the overall credit growth rate2 and 42 percentage points.
Wen Bin pointed out: "Subsequently, under the requirements of promoting high-quality financial development, the '5+3' field will become an important business direction for the financial industry. The increase in the fields of the 'five major articles' and the three major projects ('level-emergency dual-use' public infrastructure, urban village transformation, and affordable housing construction) will accelerate the transformation of economic development momentum and help the construction of a new model for the real estate industry, which is also in line with the general direction of revitalizing stock funds and improving the efficiency of capital use proposed by the central bank, and injecting new impetus into high-quality economic development. ”
Wang Qing also said that in general, under the principle of "prudent monetary policy should be precise and powerful", structural monetary policy tools will be further relied on in the future, which is also an important starting point for promoting financial supply-side reform.