At present, the most advanced chip process is the 3nm process of TSMC and Samsung.
But it is really not easy to enter from 5nm to 3nm, it took 3 years, and at the same time from 5nm to 3nm, TSMC spent more than 30 billion US dollars, and Samsung is about the same, and the two together cost more than 400 billion yuan.
And from 3nm to 2nm, it will only take longer, and the amount of money spent will naturally be more.
After spending so much money, what is the benefit of the 3nm process, it was reported before that it is expected that TSMC will recover all the costs and really make money on the 3nm process, at least 5 years.
And 5 years later, 2nm will definitely come again, according to the current trend, mature chips are unwilling to march to advanced technology, and advanced technology only looks at the most advanced.
For example, after the realization of 3nm, there will be no orders for the 7nm process, which is a reason, because mature chips will not use 7nm, and advanced processes do not look down on 7nm, so they need to use 5nm, 3nm, etc.
Therefore, judging from this development, it can be said objectively that the chip process, after entering 3nm, really can't be rolled, because the more advanced the process, the more disproportionate the investment income is, and it is even possible to lose money.
Because after entering 2nm, advanced chip processes such as mobile phone SOC directly enter 2nm, and the 3nm process may be worried about orders again
From 2nm to 1nm, the situation is actually the same, the more you go to the back, the greater the investment, the longer the research and development time, the more difficult it is to recover the cost, and the wafer factory will not want to roll more and more.
In fact, at present, there are only three manufacturers that have entered the process below 10nm, namely Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, and other companies have not entered, because the market is so big, and the cost is too high, and the technical difficulty is also great.
And such a situation is actually beneficial for China's chip industry, that is, it gives us time to catch up.
For example, a runway, the previous road was still very easy to walk, TSMC and Samsung walked very fast, but then it became more and more difficult to walk, and even the road was broken, and TSMC and Samsung couldn't walk.
We followed them, at the beginning, because of the late start, so far behind, but we have been chasing very fast, not far away, who knows that chasing them is getting more and more unable to walk, we can quickly follow.
So this is really not self-comforting, self-hypnosis, it is true, I don't believe you will wait and see, it really won't take too long to catch up.