Straight news: South Korea's first military reconnaissance satellite was launched at 10:19 a.m. local time on the 1st at the Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, USA, and successfully entered the scheduled orbit, and also achieved the first communication with overseas ground stations. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Just after the DPRK completed the launch of the military reconnaissance satellite "Wanlijing-1" last month, the United States helped the ROK launch its first military reconnaissance satellite, which not only means the official start of the space military race between the two sides of the peninsula, but also shows that the United States and the ROK are very "jealous" and very concerned about the DPRK's launch of the military reconnaissance satellite. Because it means that North Korea's long-range strike capability has finally made a key breakthrough, that is, after the success of the nuclear test and the successful intercontinental missile test, it has installed the "eye in the sky" for nuclear ** and intercontinental missiles, that is, reconnaissance satellites, and then North Korea's nuclear ** can not only hit far, but also accurately. This is undoubtedly a bad omen for the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
It is worth noting that the ROK's first military reconnaissance satellite was successfully launched with the vigorous help of the United States, and it could only be put into use after six months of repeated commissioning. North Korea, on the other hand, has failed in most of its satellites over the years, including two failed launches on May 31 and August 24 this year, but this time North Korea not only successfully launched, but also completed the commissioning work and put it into operation in an extremely rare way after a week. According to foreign news reports, the military reconnaissance satellite launched by the DPRK not only took images of the White House and the Pentagon, but also four US nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and one British aircraft carrier. In this regard, the supreme commander of the DPRK, Kim Jong-un, is very satisfied. Then it is precisely in this situation that the West almost one-sidedly accuses that it is Russian experts who have given special guidance to North Korea's satellite technology, which is the result of the recent exchange of military interests between North Korea and Russia, that is, North Korea provides ammunition to Russia for the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Russia provides high-end military technology to North Korea. If this speculation of the West is true, it not only means that with the open help of the United States and with the covert support of Russia, the two sides of the peninsula have opened the curtain of the space military race, but also means that the long-delayed Russia-Ukraine war has profoundly affected the security situation on the peninsula.
Straight News: We have seen that while each has launched its own military reconnaissance satellite, the military confrontation between the DPRK and the ROK has become more severe. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: Indeed, in recent days, both the DPRK and the ROK have been "drawing their swords out of their sheaths." At the same time as North Korea launched the satellite, South Korea announced that it had terminated the military part of the Panmunjom Declaration and said it would increase the deployment of troops and equipment in the demarcation zone between the two Koreas. North Korea has retaliated by suspending its 2018 military agreement with South Korea, reinstating once-dismantled demilitarized zone posts, equipping soldiers in the Panmunjom Joint Security Area with pistols and even opening the doors of artillery shells deployed along the northern boundary line in the western waters of the Korean Peninsula. In view of such a situation, the United States has also joined in the excitement, further intensified its military deployment on the peninsula, and launched a joint military exercise between the United States, Japan, and South Korea.
Does this mean that war on the peninsula is about to break out again?I don't think so, because several fundamental factors that hindered the outbreak of war on the peninsula have not changed in any fundamental way. These three basic factors are: First, the DPRK will not fight, and the purpose of the DPRK's development of nuclear weapons, intercontinental missiles, and satellites is to ensure its own ideology and regime security. In the absence of war and military confrontation, this security situation is manageable, and once war breaks out, the ideological and political security of the DPRK cannot be guaranteedSecond, South Korea does not dare to fight, because protecting the lives of its people and the achievements of economic construction after World War II has always been the primary and core strategic task of South Korea, which is close to North Korea, and once a war starts, these will not be savedThird, the United States is even more afraid to fight, because when the war between Russia and Ukraine cannot end and the conflict between Israel and Hamas is in full swing, if the war on the peninsula resumes again, not only will the United States be completely unable to withstand the three wars, but the entire world order will be completely chaotic. Especially unlike the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the United States does not need to send troops as long as it pays for it, the United States is not only a military alliance with South Korea, but also the United States has troops stationed in South Korea.
Straight News: What do you think about the U.S. announcement of sanctions against eight North Korean individuals and one entity in North Korea?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: The US sanctions are unilateral actions that bypass the UN Security Council and negotiate with Japan, South Korea and Australia.
As we know, the UN Security Council did adopt a resolution banning North Korea's use of ballistic missile technology. After the resolution was passed, with the unanimous consent of the five permanent members of the Security Council, China, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, the Security Council did pass several resolutions condemning and even sanctioning the DPRK. However, last year and this year, North Korea launched more than 100 ballistic missiles, but the United Nations Security Council failed to pass a single sanction or even condemnation resolution against North Korea. On Monday, after North Korea launched its military reconnaissance satellite "Wanli Jing-1," the United States also put forward a motion to sanction and condemn North Korea, but the result was stillborn because of the great differences among the five permanent members. This also means that following the bloc confrontation between China and Russia and the United States, Britain and France on the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, there has also been a bloc confrontation between the two sides on the Korean Peninsula issue. In my opinion, the United States obviously bears the greatest responsibility for this, because bloc confrontation is precisely the result of the United States taking the initiative to provoke an ideological "new Cold War." This means that although a hot war could not be fought in East Asia, there are signs of a resurgence on the Korean Peninsula, which is known as a living fossil of the Cold War.
Another phenomenon worthy of attention is that at the recent meeting of the foreign ministers of China, Japan, and the ROK held in Busan, South Korea, the ROK and Japan jointly requested the Chinese side to come forward to prevent the DPRK from launching military reconnaissance satellites and ballistic missiles, and to take this as a precondition for resuming the China-Japan-ROK summit and cooperation between China, Japan, and the ROK. In retaliation, China demands that Japan and South Korea earnestly abide by the one-China principle and refrain from meddling in the Taiwan issue. They also noted that the trilateral foreign ministers' meeting did not achieve substantive results, and the three sides did not hold a joint press conference after the meeting. This also means that the recent space arms race between the DPRK and the ROK has also become one of the obstacles to a new breakthrough in the relations between China, Japan, and the ROK.
Author丨Liu Heping, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".
Editor丨Li Yi, editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News.