Straight News: What do you think is the reason for the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire and the break?
Geng Xin, Special Commentator: I summarize it as the "four noes", that is, "there is no righteous war in the Middle East, there is no winner in the war, there is no bottom line for revenge, and there is no credibility in promises".
The first is that Israel has two major contradictions, or "dilemmas", the first is that Israel's biggest headache is that there are still about 150 hostages in the hands of Hamas, and rescuing the hostages is an urgent task for the Israeli government and the people. However, it is too impatient, hoping to force Hamas to release people by means of pressure and violence, and today's impatient resumption of war is undoubtedly contrary to the desire to rescue the hostages
Israel's first dilemma is that it wants to completely "eliminate Hamas", but it is so unrestrained and undisciplined that it is difficult to really eliminate Hamas completely from both strategic and tactical aspects, and such retaliation, ** caused so many women and children to suffer, and such accumulated hatred is instead creating soil for generating more Hamas supporters. Whoever sows hatred will inevitably taste the bitter fruits of hatred, but Israel's current situation cannot stop its "superstition of violence" and "inertia for revenge," and this is the second "dilemma."
The second is the United States, which also has such a "dilemma". The first is that the United States has always supported Israel, and next year is the first to come. Biden no longer likes Netanyahu, and of course the power of Jews must be taken into account in the first year.
Second, the "dilemma" faced by the United States regarding Middle East policy, as we all know, the United States is recently promoting the "American version of the Middle East reconciliation wave", this time the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has disrupted the strategic deployment of the United States, and when Israel indiscriminately kills innocents and forcibly occupies Gaza, the United States also hopes to properly restrain Israel's behavior, but Netanyahu has repeatedly slapped Biden in the face.
Again, there is Hamas, and there are many "dilemmas". First, Hamas launched a surprise attack on October 7 with brutal tactics and the capture of hostages, which led to such bloody retaliation, and Hamas was unable to retaliate.
Hamas's second dilemma is that its strategic intent in launching raids is to give greater prominence to its aspirations and its presence and influence in the Middle East. But the grave consequences of its current actions, as well as the subsequent reactions, have greatly damaged its own vitality and moral image, and have instead highlighted its own weakness and unconscionability, as if it is becoming less and less popular with its supporters and the majority of its Palestinians. Hamas also seems to have no other wise choice but to "respond to violence with violence", and this is the biggest dilemma facing Hamas.
Straight News: Palestine and Israel have been fighting for so many years, and now they are back at war, what do you think is the way out?
Geng Xin: As for the way out of the chaos between Palestine and Israel and even in the Middle East, it can be said that many people are exploring, with Palestine and Israel blaming each other, some saying that the responsibility is mainly in the United States, Europe or the United Nations, and some people believe that this is the result of the debts owed by the "**Jews" in Germany back then. Although it all makes sense, it doesn't grasp the root point.
I believe that whether it is Palestine and Israel, or the Middle East, or the United States and Europe, including the United Nations and the whole world, there is a realistic misunderstanding when facing disputes and conflicts, and they are all continuing the Cold War "-for-tat,-for-tat" mode of thinking and behavior. I think this code of conduct is specifically 12 words, that is, "harmony is precious, forbearance is high, talk is the first, and faith is the first". This is also the only correct choice for both Palestine and Israel.
Author丨Geng Xin, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan".