Recently, the development of the situation around the Russia-Ukraine conflict has once again become the focus of attention of all parties. This article intends to analyze the internal logic of the development of events as objectively as possible by sorting out the ins and outs of relevant events.
1. Biden's change in attitude highlights the pressure at home and abroad in the United States.
According to reports, during Ukraine's recent visit to the United States, the United States' Biden has made an aid commitment to him from the previous "how long will it take to support Ukraine" to "how long will it take to support Ukraine". According to the analysis, this reflects the two pressures faced by the United States in dealing with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
One is domestic pressure. The support of the American people for the continued large-scale aid to Ukraine continues to decline. Republicans, on the other hand, want to devote more resources to domestic issues. In addition, Biden is currently facing an investigation, and his political stance is becoming more cautious against this background.
The second is diplomatic pressure. Russia has repeatedly warned Western countries not to get too involved in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At the same time, some European countries have also called on the United States to adopt a more flexible and pragmatic diplomatic strategy to avoid escalation.
Therefore, Biden's change in attitude can be seen as a political compromise and trade-off for the United States in a complex situation. It also highlights the dilemma it faces on Russia-Ukraine issues.
2. The Russian army faces many tests near Kyiv.
Since the withdrawal of Russian troops from the vicinity of Kyiv at the end of February, the Kyiv region has been relatively calm for a long time. However, the recent frequent strikes by the Russian army in the core area of Ukraine show that the Russian side may be brewing a new offensive.
According to Kadyrov, the head of the Russian Republic of Chechnya, the Russian army is capable of reoccupying Kyiv in a relatively short time. But it is widely believed that this strategic goal faces many uncertainties:
1.The defense system of the Ukrainian army has been greatly strengthened, which is easy to defend and difficult to attack;
2.The capture of Kyiv poses a challenge to subsequent control;
3.Kyiv has important political and symbolic significance, and it is difficult to capture;
4.Russia and Ukraine may be embroiled in more intense urban warfare, further increasing.
Based on various considerations, the possibility of a large-scale Russian attack on Kyiv in the short term is still small. However, the Russian side will continue to carry out strikes on the core areas of Ukraine, aiming to deplete the Ukrainian army and demoralize. Therefore, the situation around Kyiv will remain tense across the board.
3. The investigation will not prevent Biden from running for re-election.
In mid-December, the Republican Party of the US House of Representatives officially launched an investigation into Biden. This mainly focuses on whether his family members have taken advantage of their positions to obtain improper benefits.
Although Biden's voice is higher within the Republican Party, it will be difficult to achieve this goal:
1.There are divisions within the Republican Party on the ** issue;
2.Democrats can use the Senate advantage to delay the process
3.**The procedure is complex and lengthy, and it is extremely difficult to complete.
Therefore, although the investigation will be a major obstacle on the road to Biden's re-election, its success rate is still low. Biden has strong political experience and the ability to integrate resources, and will do his best to prevent the progress of the investigation and stabilize the election.
In summary, several recent events reflect the complexity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and related geopolitical landscapes. All parties are under pressure and are not in agreement. The key is for all parties to maintain strategic focus and guard against the situation getting out of control. At this moment, the world urgently needs to call for peace, resolve problems with wisdom and surplus, and create a win-win situation.