China Galaxy ** Co., Ltd. *** Tao Yigong, Yan Ming, Liang Younan recently conducted research on JOVO Energy and released a research report "Scarce Domestic Helium, Commercial Aerospace Special Gas Standard, "Resource + Terminal" Special Gas Strategy Accelerates", this report gives a ** rating to JOVO Energy, and the current stock price is 3078 yuan.
JOVO Energy (605090).
Core viewpoint: "resource + terminal" model to vigorously develop special gas business, to create a new performance growth pole: the company relies on the main business of clean energy, vigorously layout the special gas business, has realized the layout of helium and hydrogen from resources to terminals, in the future, the company will also take advantage of the resource advantages of self-produced helium and other aspects, and actively expand to other gas fields such as electronic special gas, through on-site gas production, retail and other operating modes, the special gas business will become a new performance growth pole of the company.
Helium is a scarce strategic resource, and China's dependence on foreign countries exceeds 90%: helium is widely used in many emerging strategic fields such as electronics, aerospace, medical treatment, and scientific research. China is a "helium-poor" country, with helium resources of 1.1 billion cubic meters, accounting for only 2 of the total helium resources in the world12%。In 2022, China's helium consumption will be 23.8 million cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 625%, and the degree of external dependence is as high as 9435%。China needs to strengthen the guarantee of helium resources in China by improving the capacity of self-produced helium.
The company has mastered the technology of BOG helium extraction, and the helium production capacity has a large room for growth: the company is one of the few enterprises in China that has mastered the key technology of BOG helium extraction, with an existing production capacity of 360,000 cubic meters per year. In 2022, the company's helium production will be 180,000 cubic meters, accounting for more than 10% of the country's total outputIn the first three quarters of 2023, helium production and sales reached 230,000 cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 63%. At present, the company has built a new crude helium refining project in Luxian County, Sichuan, with a design capacity of 1 million cubic meters per year. In the future, the company will continue to improve its helium resource guarantee capacity through various channels such as LNG expansion, underground energy operation services, and imported liquid helium, so as to achieve the dual resource guarantee of "domestic gas helium + imported liquid helium".
The landing of commercial rocket projects demonstrates the advantages of resources and continues to expand the field of aerospace special gases. The company recently announced that it plans to invest in the construction of special combustion and special gas supporting projects at Hainan Commercial Aerospace Launch Site. This project is the company's first comprehensive on-site gas production project, which is a manifestation of the company's competitiveness in self-produced helium resources, and is of milestone significance. Hainan Commercial Cosmodrome is currently the only commercial cosmodrome in ChinaThe company's proposed commercial special gas project is also the first gas project in China to support commercial space launch, and the demonstration is of great significance.
In recent years, the demand for commercial satellites and launches at home and abroad has grown explosively, and the company, as a pioneer in the field of commercial aerospace special combustion and special gas, is expected to share the huge market opportunities of commercial space launches at home and abroad. Helium is widely used in the aviation and aerospace fields, and the company will continue to deepen the field of aviation and aerospace special gases with the help of this project, making this field an important bridgehead for the company to expand its special gas business.
In October 2023, the company completed the acquisition of 70% of the shares of Hunan Airsy, one of the largest comprehensive and high-end gas producers and distributors in central China, and the largest helium retail gas station in Hunan.
The company also strategically deploys its hydrogen business. In April 2023, the company completed the restructuring of Zhengtuo Gas and obtained 70% of its equity, effectively enhancing the company's strength in various hydrogen production technologies and hydrogen operation and management capabilitiesAt the same time, the company continued to promote the construction of the first integrated energy station project integrating hydrogen production and hydrogenation in Nansha District, Guangzhou. In addition, the company participated in the investment in the establishment of the hydrogen energy industry** and accelerated the implementation of the industrialization project of the hydrogen energy sector. In the future, the company is expected to continuously expand the product matrix, break regional boundaries, and build a national comprehensive industrial gas and special gas service provider with the help of the layout of helium and hydrogen at the resource end, the layout of on-site gas production and retail gas at the terminal.
Judgment and rating description of industry valuation: It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2023 to 2025 will be 1306/15.60/19.2.4 billion yuan, the corresponding PE is 15X 12X 10X, and the "resource + terminal" layout of the company's special gas business is poised to take off, which is expected to become the company's second growth curve. Maintain the "Recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the risk that the development progress of the specialty gas market is not as expected;The construction progress of the Wenchang project is not as expected and other risks.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Yuan Li of Soochow has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is as high as 9259%, and its **2023 attributable net profit is 131.5 billion, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 1464。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 12 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 10 ** ratings and 2 overweight ratingsThe average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 3263。
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