**: Brokerage China.
The ** assets that continue to be **, but as 2023 is about to come to an end, there is a significant difference in prediction. Looking at the gold price trend throughout the year, there was a "V" shaped trend in November, and it also touched 2146 in early DecemberAt $79, a record high, it is still above $2,000 as of now, continuing to play a safe-haven role.
In the 2024** asset outlook, institutions pointed out that risk aversion still exists, coupled with the downward cycle of the US dollar and the strong demand for gold purchases by global central banks,** may still be supported. However, some institutions believe that the recent Fed interest rate cut transaction has boosted *** significantly, but the latter has been priced in more expected changes. Judging from the comparative relationship between U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index, the short-term marginal risk of ** assets is accumulating, and it is no longer appropriate to chase up in the current position.
The manager specifically mentioned that from December 15 to January 15 of the following year, the market is likely to present a pattern, mainly for speculating on commodity rebalancing and Chinese New Year consumption. "However, due to the fact that the increase in the whole year of 2023 is not small, it may be difficult to have further momentum for repositioning. China's retail boom has also passed in stages, and it is expected that it will be difficult to exceed the sales peak in the third quarter by the end of the year. ”
Continuing to play a safe-haven role, **ETFs generally have double-digit returns
According to wind data, as of December 30, Beijing time, London gold is now about $2,062 an ounce. On December 4, the price of gold once touched 2146$79, although it fell below the $2,000 mark again on December 8, but soon after standing above the $2,000 level, it climbed steadily. Looking back at 2023, the price of gold has risen from the lowest at 1804$5 continued to climb, reaching 2146 at one pointThe all-time high of $79 has become one of the brightest assets in the global market this year.
According to the analysis of China Merchants ** in the latest "2024 Annual Investment Strategy Report", gold prices will be driven by safe-haven demand in the first half of 2023**, and fluctuate in the second half of 2023 due to the impact of Federal Reserve policies and market expectations**. China Merchants believes that throughout the year, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has come to an end, and the market's continuous adjustment of interest rate hike expectations has dominated the trend.
Specifically, China Merchants said that in the first half of the year, the banking turmoil in Europe and the United States, the debt ceiling crisis and the global geopolitical turmoil pushed up the hedging demand of the first month, which made the overall hub riseIn the second half of the year, U.S. economic data exceeded market expectations and the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" speech broke the upward trend, causing gold prices to fall from their highs in early May and enter a wide range. In October, geopolitical conflicts boosted market risk aversion, and gold prices began to enter a unilateral upward range due to their safe-haven attributes. Gold prices showed a "V" shaped trend in November under the dual influence of the gradual cooling of market risk aversion and the market's expectation of the start of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle further advanced.
According to Wind, as of December 30, ETF products (including Shanghai Gold ETF) under the public offering of Huaan**, Bosera**, Cathay**, China Universal **, E Fund**, Huaxia**, and ICBC Credit Suisse** generally achieved double-digit returns during the year.
Ai Xiaojun, manager of Cathay Pacific, believes that global geopolitics is complex, and geopolitical crises have become the biggest uncertainty affecting the global political economy. After the Federal Reserve's policy is about to turn to interest rate cuts and the pressure on bulls to close their positions is released, international gold prices are expected to continue to strengthen. In the medium to long term, the outlook for the global economic recovery remains uncertain, and ** may continue to play a safe-haven role in the portfolio.
Three aspects to grasp the main contradiction of gold prices
While it's easy to see what goes up and down, there are a variety of factors involved in asset pricing. Institutions often need to focus on the micro vision when predicting the trend. For example, Yingmi ** pointed out in the latest "2024 Public Offering ** Asset Allocation Report" that in view of the scale distribution of domestic commodity **, considering the complexity of **pricing, try to grasp the core contradiction of ** from the following three aspects:
The first is the price comparison between Shanghai gold and London gold. Yingmi** compared the price of London gold and Shanghai gold spot** and found that in the long run, the trend of the two is highly correlated but there is a divergence. However, if London gold is compared after exchange rate adjustment, the long-term trend of the two is highly convergent. Yingmi ** believes that this can be based on the two dimensions of London gold and Shanghai gold to analyze the trend of **.
In view of the past analysis of brokers, the real interest rate and gold prices are negatively correlated. From the perspective of Shanghai gold, China's real interest rate should be negatively correlated with gold prices;From London Gold (CNY), the price of gold should be positively correlated with the exchange rate and negatively correlated with the US real interest rate. Based on this, Yingmi** further analyzes from two perspectives: the real interest rate method and the Sino-US interest rate differential method.
The second is the real interest rate method. According to the past analysis of brokers, based on variables such as inflation and nominal interest rates, there is a negative correlation between Shanghai gold and real interest rates, but in recent years, there have been cases where the original model of real interest rates and gold prices have risen synchronously. Assuming that the validity of the original model remains unchanged, in the current economic environment, we expect that there may be room for real interest rates to fall, whether it is a downward trend in nominal interest rates or a moderate recovery in inflation next year, both of which are feasible and necessary.
The third is the interest rate differential method between China and the United States. Based on the 10-year Treasury bond spread between China and the United States, there is a high correlation between the extreme value of the Treasury bond spread and London Gold (CNY) since 2015. At the current point in time, the spread between U.S. and Chinese bonds is 2After peaking at 26%, it is in a downward channel, and the market is highly consistent with the Fed's interest rate cut next year, and gold prices may trend upward next year, driven by the spread of Treasury bonds.
It is no longer appropriate to chase the rally in the current position
Based on the above analysis, Yingmi** believes that the gold price research institute as a whole remains moderately optimistic next year, and investors can consider choosing the opportunity to intervene. China Merchants believes that risk aversion still exists and the US dollar is in a downward cycle, and the ** sector may have support.
According to the specific analysis of China Merchants**, as the downward pressure on the economy increases and inflation eases, the Federal Reserve may begin to cut interest rates in the middle of next year, thereby guiding the accelerated decline of nominal and real interest rates on U.S. bonds. Although the upward driving force of gold prices is not strong from the perspective of stable real interest rates in the United States, after the United States cuts interest rates, it is likely that the dollar will enter a new downward cycle, which will then push gold prices up. Looking back at historical data, the United States experienced two interest rate cuts from July 2007 to November 2008 and July 2019 to March 2020, respectively, while gold prices remained strong during these periods.
In addition, China Merchants ** also mentioned that the latest data from the World ** Association shows that the central bank's gold purchase demand has reached 800 tons since the beginning of 2023, setting the latest record since the association's statistics. Central banks are likely to remain strong for the rest of the year, suggesting that total central bank demand is expected to remain strong in 2024.
In terms of stock trend expectations, ICBC Credit Suisse believes that the recent ** stocks have followed the overall decline of A-shares, but have not followed the recovery of gold prices or **, and the hedging effect of stocks has declined. If the follow-up continues, it may be conducive to reversing the current predicament. With the gradual stabilization of ** stocks and the easing of capital outflows, the market pays more attention to fundamentals and gives higher weight to the performance of ** stocks.
However, there are also institutions with relatively cautious predictions, which is a phenomenon rarely encountered in 2023, when ** assets continue to rise.
Sino Analytica believes that it is expected that the signs of a slowdown in the U.S. economy in the first half of 2024 may be more obvious, and the continued geopolitical risks may increase the volatility of the financial market compared with the previous period. The risk point may be that the Fed will start cutting interest rates at a point that lags behind market expectations. "The recent market has given a significant boost to the Fed's interest rate cut trade, but the latter has priced in more changes in expectations. It is recommended that investors actively pay attention to the trend. ”
Wang Xiang, manager of Bosera, analyzed that last week (December 18-22), the international market continued to struggle to rise against the background of less than expected core PCE, but from the comparative relationship between U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index, the short-term marginal risk of assets is accumulating.
During this period, the U.S. dollar index and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield continued to decline, but gold prices showed less reaction to this. The PCE data was less than expected, although it once guided the market to strengthen easing expectations and boost the performance, but it failed to hold the impact on the upper edge of the historical platform, and the bullish momentum will converge in the short term. Wang Xiang said that from the perspective of historical performance, from December 15 to January 15 of the following year, the market is likely to present a pattern, mainly speculation on commodity rebalancing and Chinese New Year consumption.
However, due to the fact that the increase in the whole year of this year is not small, it may be difficult to have further momentum for position adjustment. China's retail boom has also passed in stages, and it is expected that it will be difficult to exceed the sales peak in the third quarter by the end of the year. On the whole, the short-term marginal risk of ** assets has accumulated, and from the perspective of risk and return, it is no longer appropriate to chase up in the current position. Wang Xiang said.