As of December 5**, the Shanghai Composite Index was at 297230 points, down 167%；Shen Cheng index reported 947036 points, down 197%；GEM index reported 187110 points, down 198%。The turnover of the two cities was 822.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and more than 4,600 *** Today, the net outflow of northbound funds was 554.3 billion yuan, net selling 7.5$2.1 billion.
Today's market pressure mainly comes from several aspects:
First, Moody's downgraded China's credit rating, which had an impact on market sentiment
Second, the turnover has been at a low level, resulting in the continued breaking of the weighted sectors, and the CSI 300 and SSE 50 weighted indices have continued to hit new lows. However, in this round of market adjustment, the technology sector is expected to gain greater weight in the future, and the weight of the traditional real estate, finance, and liquor sectors will decline
Third, the consensus cannot be formed under the cautious side of funds, and the market lacks a new main line. Under the lack of turnover, the market sentiment is mainly driven by the capital, but the Huawei concept is facing the demand for adjustment after the continuous rise, and the direction of the speculation of the capital is chaotic, from the previous "dragon flying phoenix dance" to the recent "whitening of the southeast, northwest and northwest" of mahjong, which has a limited effect on the improvement of market sentiment, and the Beijing Stock Exchange is rising again today, which also diverts the flow of funds;
Fourth, although the inflection point of the Fed's interest rate hike is approaching, on the one hand, the yield of US bonds is still at a high level, on the other hand, the US stock market is close to the previous high, Bitcoin continues to rise, and the gold price has also hit a new high, all of which are attractive to foreign capital, thereby diverting northbound funds.
On the whole, in the last round of V-shaped pull-up process, there are problems such as not enough volume, too fast, and large selling pressure at key points, and the market has the expectation that the index will carry out W double bottoming, and the other foot of this round of **W bottom has appeared, and the market is expected to self-realize at the same time, many funds have gradually turned from wait-and-see to positive, and then focus on the time window of the year-end blockbuster meeting, and whether the index will promote the introduction of a heavier disk protection policy.
1. Whether there will be a large volume**, if there is, you need to pay attention to the risk.
2. The best opportunities in the process of science and technology, medicine, and state-owned enterprise reform.
3. More vigorous disk protection policies have been introduced.
On December 5th, ** opened low and went low throughout the day, and as of **, the three major stock indexes closed down across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 3,000 points again, down 167% at 297230 o'clock;The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 197% at 947036 points;The GEM index fell 198% at 187110 o'clock. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets today reached 822.5 billion, a decrease of 28.7 billion from the previous trading day, with more than 4,600 stocks
Today, there is a net outflow of 55 northbound funds4.3 billion yuan, net selling 7.52.1 billion yuan, of which the net outflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 393 billion yuan, net sale of 489.4 billion yuan;The net outflow of SZSE was 161.3 billion yuan, net selling 262.7 billion yuan.
The main capital outflow of Shanghai and Shenzhen was 4553 billion yuan. Among them, the net outflow of large single was 2082.7 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 247 for large orders0.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 401.2 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 415 small orders$1.8 billion.
Sector:
Today, food and beverage, rubber products and energy metals and other sectors strengthened, and dairy, ** medicine, heparin concept and prefabricated food concept rose highly.
Food and beverage stocks led the rise, Knight Dairy, Runpu Food, Gaishi Food, Oufu Egg Industry and other 30cm daily limit, consistent konjac, Zhu Lao.
Sixth, Combit rose by more than 20%;In the rubber products sector, Huami New Materials has a 30cm daily limit, and Keqiang shares have risen 1086%, Zhongyu Technology, Tongyi Aerospace and Li Tong Technology all rose more than 6%;In the energy metals sector, ** mining led the rise of 727%, Ganfeng Lithium, Rongjie Shares, and Tianqi Lithium were among the top gainers.
In the concept sector, the concept of dairy industry is strong, Western Animal Husbandry, Sunshine Dairy, Yiming Food and Nanqiao Food are up and down, and Tianrun Dairy is up more than 5%;* The concept of medicine is active, Changshan Pharmaceutical has a 20cm daily limit, and Hanyu Pharmaceutical has risen by more than 7%;Heparin concept stocks were differentiated, and Shuanglu Pharmaceutical rose 279%, Jianyou shares, North China Pharmaceutical, etc. all fell more than 04%；Among the prefabricated food concept stocks, Huifa Food, Chunxue Food and Haixin Food have a daily limit, and Yike Food, Ziyan Food and Sanquan Food are among the top gainers.
In terms of gaming, internet services and semiconductors weakened, with concepts such as Huawei Euler, Huawei Ascend and 3D cameras leading the decline.
In the game sector, Shenzhou Taiyue and Baotong Technology fell by more than 5%, and Giant Network, Glacier Network and Gigabit all fell by more than 4%.*Sector**, Xiaocheng Technology fell more than 5%, Chifeng** fell more than 4%, Sichuan**, Yintai ** fell more than 3%;Internet service sector, Hengwei Technology Fall Limit, Yidiantian**807%, Winner Technology, Zhongke Xingtu, Kunlun Wanwei and Haitian Ruisheng fell more than 6%;In the semiconductor sector, Puran shares, Longsys, Huahai Chengke, Fuld and so on all fell by more than 5%.
Among Huawei's Euler and Huawei's Ascend concept stocks, creative information fell 911%, iSoftStone fell 786%, Kirin Xin'an, Tianyuan Dike, Anheng Information, etc. all fell more than 5%;Among the 3D camera concept stocks, China Optics led the decline of 599%, Lianchuang Electronics and Jingfang Technology fell 535% and 507%, Wufang Optoelectronics, Jintuo shares and many others**even**.
Overall:Everbright said that the weakness will continue, the hot spots will rotate rapidly, and the market will have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the turnaround will most likely wait until the blockbuster meeting will be held in December. Until then, the index is expected to remain weak**. Looking back on history, if the tone of the blockbuster meeting at the end of the year is more positive, it is expected to further strengthen market confidence and even promote the opening of spring restlessness. Therefore, investors do not need to be too pessimistic about the follow-up. At the same time, before and after the blockbuster meeting, the value style (such as big finance, cyclical direction) is often dominant, and the growth style needs to wait for the industrial policy to set the tone. Therefore, a balanced configuration is appropriate.
Caitong ** pointed out that the overseas environment has eased greatly, and the domestic has entered a stable period. The U.S. bond pivot fell to 4 from a high of 5% as expected**4%-4.5%, which has also gradually stabilized;Treasury interest rates are low**, and the current pivot is at 27%, the economic expectations in the follow-up assets have gradually rebounded, and the current economic expectations have been repaired to nearly 40% quantiles. In terms of industry allocation, pay attention to the dumbbell strategy of "** value + small cap".
CICC believes that looking forward, the current time point is close to the policy window period, and the performance of the market outlook should not be pessimistic, as the market ** to the previous low point, the market valuation is once again low to the historical extreme level, the current position has implied more pessimistic expectations, and the medium-term opportunities of the A** field are still greater than the risks. The A-share small-cap style is expected to continue to dominate, but it is necessary to pay attention to the degree of valuation differentiation of the small-cap style and the impact of subsequent policy settings on economic expectations.
China Post pointed out that based on the judgment that the main contradictions in the current A** field are not inside and outside, it is still necessary to wait for the ** Economic Work Conference to provide guidance on next year's growth target and deficit rate arrangement, and then determine the longer-term trend of the market. At present, the problem of insufficient demand for domestic economic growth is more prominent, and at the same time, the local first-class debt and the real estate market also constitute a certain pressure, and increasing the first-class expenditure to support economic growth is the current focus of the market. However, judging from the trend of A-shares before and after the Politburo meeting in July this year, the early trading policy is expected to face some uncertainty, so it is more recommended to wait for the meeting to set the tone before trading possible pro-cyclical opportunities.
Judging from the trend of the representative plates:
Food & Beverage
Open source** pointed out that on the whole, the quarterly performance of mass goods reflects that mass consumption is still under pressure, mainly due to the slow recovery of consumption scenarios and insufficient consumption power. However, the sub-sectors still show a high degree of prosperity, such as leisure snacks, catering ** chain enterprises, etc., looking forward to 2024, and the main line of the food and beverage industry is still consumption recovery. From the perspective of valuation, after the first food and beverage industry in the early stage, it has entered a reasonable layout range, and the valuation of some companies has been lower than the average level in recent years. It is expected that the valuation of the industry will be stable in 2024, and the sector still needs to return to the main line of performance growth.
IFC** said that the food and beverage industry is in a moderate recovery stage, and demand has improved amid fluctuations. Moreover, the leading enterprises still have the tenacity to operate, constantly cultivate their internal skills, make up for the shortcomings of the channel, and strengthen their brand advantages and the ability to operate large single products. The bank is still optimistic about the certainty of the performance of the leading companies, as well as the performance elasticity brought about by the increase in the penetration rate of subdivided industries and the improvement of ** costs. At present, the valuation has entered a historical low quantile and high-quality leaders are still able to buck the trend to grab share, the supply-side pattern continues to be optimized, and the short-term downside risk is limited. In the medium to long term, if demand improves, there will be opportunities for valuation and performance to double-double.
Huaxi ** analysis believes that the recent international gold price has continued to rise, mainly because the market's expectations for the end of the Fed's interest rate hike are getting stronger and stronger. In terms of inflation data, the US energy inflation fell year-on-year and labor inflation cooled, which weakened the US CPI and PPI in October. The U.S. manufacturing PMI has also been below the 50 threshold for the 13th consecutive month, the longest record in more than 20 years, making economic activity in the fourth quarter not optimistic. Against the backdrop of falling inflation and employment in the United States and downward pressure on the economy, it is expected that the Fed's interest rate hike has come to an end. It is recommended to pay attention to ** investment opportunities.
Everbright pointed out that the recent *** has been at a record high, while the stock price is still not close to the high, mainly because the market has not formed a consensus on the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts, US Treasury yields and the US dollar index in 2024, resulting in market differences on the height of gold prices. It is expected that this factor will be gradually eliminated in the future more ** statements of the Fed. In the long run, the correlation between gold prices and the trend of ** stocks is still very strong, and it is expected that gold prices and ** stocks will usher in a wave of *** in the first half of 2024
According to the analysis of China Securities Construction Investment, the overall U.S. economy continues to cool down, and the loosening of the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve will be superimposed, and the subsequent market reaction to the Fed's "interest rate hike with mouth" may weaken, and the fundamentals of the first market will generally improve. Moreover, the results of the meeting eased the market's concerns about energy** risks and made this fundamental support more solid.
games
On the news side, on December 4, the National Press and Publication Administration released the approval information of domestic online games in November, and a total of 87 games were approved. So far, a total of 931 game versions have been issued this year, which is close to the 1,000 mark expected by institutions. Huaxi ** said that it will continue to recommend the game industry, and the overall allocation of the sector is cost-effective, and the current valuation is at a relatively low level, focusing on high-quality companies that make small games, have product reserves, and have catalysis.
The Soochow ** research report also pointed out that it is optimistic that the performance of the game sector will continue to recover, and AI empowerment will support the upward elasticity of valuation. Looking ahead: 1) On the supply side, the technological and cultural attributes of games are constantly being recognized, game versions are expected to continue the trend of high-quality distribution, and the supply of new games in the industry is expected to continue to improve. 2) On the performance side, a new round of product cycle in the industry has been opened, and new games from various manufacturers have been launched one after another, which will drive the gradual recovery of the market scale, and the performance of manufacturers is expected to be repaired one after another. 3) On the valuation side, AI's cost reduction and efficiency improvement technology for games has a clear path and major manufacturers have tried to land one after another, and "AI+" gameplay innovation has also been implemented by Zitian Technology, Kunlun Wanwei and other exploration products, and it is optimistic that the corresponding valuation of "AI+ games" is expected to exceed cloud games in 2019 and the metaverse in 2021**.
Medicine
On the news side, the direction of ** medicine is good again. Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche (Roche) announced that it will enter the ** drug market through acquisitions, challenging ** drug giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Specifically, Roche announced the $2.7 billion upfront** acquisition of Carmottherapeutics, an unmarketed U.S.** drug developer. CITIC believes that the pharmaceutical and health industry has entered a new cycle of increasing concentration, and anti-corruption has also opened a new chapter in the growth of the industry. The market expectation of the pharmaceutical industry may have bottomed out, and the industry is expected to recover in 2024.
China Post** said that from a fundamental point of view, the growth of many sectors in the third quarter of 2023 is better than market expectations, and it is expected that the performance in the fourth quarter and 2024 will be comprehensively good, and the valuation and performance will be improvedFrom the perspective of capital, the PE of the pharmaceutical sector has been at a record low, and the ** position is also at a historically low level, which is highly attractive after the expected improvement. To sum up, we believe that the large-scale ** is already in place, and the pharmaceutical sector is expected to usher in a bull market in 2024**.
The Dongguan ** research report pointed out that from the performance of Q3, the revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined year-on-year, and the performance of most sub-sectors showed negative growth. At present, the pharmaceutical industry has gradually come out of the disruption of the epidemic, with the continuous advancement of medical anti-corruption, the pharmaceutical market is expected to be further standardized, the impact of medical anti-corruption is marginally reduced, the entire market is expected to develop healthily and steadily, and the performance of Q4 and next year is expected to improve. At present, the pharmaceutical sector is at a relatively low valuation in the past ten years, and the sentiment of the sector continues to pick up. It is recommended to pay attention to: R&D investment is increasing year by year, and the pipeline under research is gradually entering the harvest period of the innovative drug sector;The traditional Chinese medicine sector with improved performance and policy support for development;Benefiting from the aging of the population, the medical service sector is expected to resume diagnosis and treatment activities, and the medical device sector is expected to benefit from new medical infrastructure and domestic production.
1. Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche announced that it would enter the first-class drug market through acquisitions, challenging the first-class pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Specifically, Roche announced the $2.7 billion upfront** acquisition of Carmottherapeutics, an unmarketed U.S.** drug developer. Carmot's investigational drug, CT-388, belongs to a class of dual-target receptor agonists known as GLP-1 GIP, which is injected once a week and has similar effects to Eli Lilly's diabetes drug Mounjaro and bariatric drug Zepbound. The drug is currently ready for a second phase of human trials and could be available after 2030. (Good for the concept of ** medicine).
2. The Ministry of Transport announced on the 5th that in order to guide the development of autonomous driving technology and standardize the application of autonomous vehicles in the field of transportation services, the General Office of the Ministry of Transport recently issued the "Guidelines for Autonomous Vehicle Transportation Safety Services (Trial)", which mentioned in terms of staffing that autonomous vehicles engaged in urban bus and tram passenger transport and road passenger transport operations should be equipped with one safety officer on board. In principle, autonomous vehicles engaged in road cargo transportation operations are equipped with safety officers on board. (Good for the autonomous driving sector).
On May 5, the 10th China (Shenzhen) Battery New Energy Industry International Summit Forum opened in Shenzhen. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, said that in the next two years, the state will further increase its efforts to promote the consumption of new energy vehicles, and promote the rapid development of the industry through various measures such as issuing consumption vouchers. The number of automobiles and bicycles has been greatly improved, and the country's emphasis on electric vehicles has been further enhanced. 2024 is a big year for the new energy vehicle market, and there will be a good start at the beginning of next year, so the overall situation is relatively optimistic about next year's car market, because it is expected that the market at the beginning of next year will be very good, and we can see higher growth at the beginning of the year, so we will raise the ** a little higher. (Good for the new energy vehicle sector).
At 7:33 a.m. on May 5, Galaxy Power Space Co., Ltd. successfully launched the Ceres-1 (Yao-9) carrier rocket from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, successfully sending the Tianyan-16 and Xingchi-1A satellites into a 500-kilometer altitude morning and dusk orbit. This is the first time that a domestic private rocket company has successfully carried out a morning and dusk orbital launch mission, and it is also the tenth successful launch of the Ceres-1 series of commercial launch vehicles. (good for commercial aerospace concepts).
On the 5th of the month, according to the Financial Associated Press, the second car of the Zhijie cooperated by Huawei and Chery will be launched in the second half of next year, with the internal code name EHY, known as the "large Model Y", equipped with a 100-degree battery pack. It is reported that Zhijie hopes to directly compete with Tesla with the first two products, and EH3 (Zhijie S7) and EHY are internally implied to be benchmarked against Tesla Model 3 Y. (Good for Huawei's automotive concept).
The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) released on November 5 recorded 515. Up 1 from October1 percentage point, the highest in the past three months. (Positive market sentiment).
Niu Ti Shi sent cash red envelopes to fans
How to Participate:
Pay attention to the "Cattle Titanium Master"**
Reply to the keyword "**."
Answer 1 hot question of the day.
You can participate in the 88 yuan pet fan cash red envelope **
Draw time: 12 noon on December 6
*Answers to hot questions will be revealed at the same time).
From ** to data, from financial hotspots to technology trends
For more market updates, please scan the code or search".niutaishi"AttentionCattle Titanium Division
Limited Time Benefits!Pay attention to the bull titanium division*** reply".Artificial intelligence
Get the report for a limited timeGlobal Report on the Ethical Governance of Artificial Intelligence