Overnight, ** collapsed, and the people involved suffered heavy losses!
The financial tea collapsed, and the receiver wanted to cry without tears
In the past few days, the "Guangzhou Fangcun Financial Tea Crash" has swiped the Internet, and a tea hype drama has come to an end.
Fangcun, Guangzhou, a well-known tea distribution center in China, is said to account for 80% of the country's Pu'er tea turnover. A large number of shops gather here, and Fangcun is known as "Tea Wall Street".
Wall Street in the United States is engaged in finance, and Guangzhou Fangcun is also engaged in tea finance and tea".
After the production of these teas, such as Pu'er tea and black tea, the longer the storage time, the more mellow and soft the taste, and the better the taste of the tea brewed, so the aged tea will be more expensive.
Generally speaking, a 10% annual price increase is reasonable. However, in Fangcun, this number of roads has changed, and local tea merchants buy a certain amount of tea at a certain **, and promise in the WeChat group that it will be 20% higher than *** after a month
Holding it for a month earns 20%, such a high yield is pie in the sky. This is obviously a hype of drumming and passing flowers, which is very unreliable, but there are still many people who flock to it.
After the dealer releases the wind, he will find someone to be the support. Cooperate with the dealer, and the dealer performs the game.
All this is to convince others that this is a game that can be played continuously, and participating in it will definitely make money!
As a result, more and more people believed. When the dealer fried each (tea trading unit, each piece weighs 357 grams, 7 pieces per piece) tea from 30,000 to 70,000 in just over two months, the receiver who has been carried away by the bubble rushed into the high position, but I didn't expect the dealer to be **!
So this kind of pick-up game quickly collapsedTea fell rapidly from more than 50,000 yuan per mention to two or three thousand, and the receiver suffered heavy losses!It is said that 500 tea merchants lost hundreds of millions of yuan.
What's even more surprising is that Chen Shihong, a big financial tea player in Fangcun, Guangzhou, is actually a post-00s Chaoshan guy, and he is the chairman of Guangzhou Changshi Tea Industry.
Chen Shihong is not the legal representative of Changshi Tea, nor is he a shareholder, but he is a figure who appears in public to represent Chang Shi Tea, as for whether Chen Shihong has the boss behind it, it remains to be explored.
After the "Fangcun Financial Tea Crash", Chen Shihong responded: "There was no illegal act from beginning to end of the incident, it was purely a business, and no one in the company promised any repurchase**, and all transactions were paid with one hand and delivered with the other." ”
This bureau has done a very clever job and avoided a lot of legal risks. For example, when a certain tea is first launched, the "dealer" promises in writing to buy it back at a higher price after a month.
After a few rounds of hype, the start of tea is higher. However, at this time, the "dealer" changed to a new tea variety and no longer provided a written repurchase commitment, and the receiver became a wronged person at this time, and there was no legal basis to sue the "dealer".
The Fangcun Financial Tea Incident in Guangzhou is very reminiscent of the Dutch tulip bubble hundreds of years ago. Whether it is tea or tulips, they are very common crops and plants. They have been multiplied countless times by the hype, which is obviously extremely outrageous, and the final receiver is pitiful, but if you are not greedy, you will not be pitted.
Capital hunts liquor, and production capacity is blindly expanded
There are no tea listed companies in the domestic A-shares, and in China's capital market, the most powerful speculation by capital in recent years may be liquor.
After experiencing the 2019-2020 liquor stock bull market, Kweichow Moutai has completely become a god, and Moutai Town seems to have become a paradise for capital to pan for gold and hunt.
The liquor industry seems to be "in good spirits at happy events", and major liquor companies have launched expansion plans, such as:
In July 2022, Luzhou Laojiao announced that the subsidiary plans to invest about 478.3 billion yuan to implement the intelligent brewing technology transformation project, after completion, the production capacity will be 80,000 tons of base wine and 10 tons of base wine storage capacity40,000 tons. To know,In 2021, the production capacity of Luzhou Laojiao will only be 170,000 tons, which is equivalent to expanding the production capacity by 50%.
In November 2022, Wuliangye announced that the company's brewing capacity will be increased to 200,000 tons, with a planned investment of 486.1 billion yuan will be used for the construction of the company's 100,000-ton ecological liquor project (phase II), which mainly includes 15 liquor workshops, 8 wine collection rooms and related supporting facilities.
By the end of 2022, Kweichow Moutai plans to spend 1551.6 billion yuan will be invested in the construction of Moutai technical transformation project, which can increase the actual production capacity of Moutai by about 1 after completion980,000 tons per year, wine storage capacity of about 8470,000 tons.
On October 30, 2023, Wuliangye replied to investors' questions on the interactive platform that in recent years and in the next 3-5 years, the company has successively invested in plans to expand production capacity and supporting facilities, and has relatively large capital expenditure plans.
In November 2023, Yingjiagongjiu invested 6.2 billion yuan in the digital brewing and by-product recycling project. The project is expected to be fully completed in 2027, and after it is put into operation, it can add 40,000 tons of raw wine production capacity and 200,000 tons of wine storage capacity per year. In 2022, Yingjiagongjiu's revenue will be 550.5 billion yuan, spending 6.2 billion yuan to expand production, the annual revenue is not enough.
While liquor companies have expanded production on a large scale, liquor sales have been declining year after year, and it is an indisputable fact that young people are becoming less and less interested in liquor.
The sharp expansion of production capacity and the decline in sales will definitely result in overcapacity and inventory squeeze, which is the most basic economic logic that holds place everywhere.
It may be that domestic liquor companies feel that their brands are high-end, and they all feel that the annual performance growth rate of more than 20% in the past can last for countless years, and they all feel that they can grow against the trend even if the industry declines, so they have expanded production, but they can't resist the economic law after all.
In the past few days, with the reduction of Luzhou Laojiao's settlement price for dealers, its stock price has been sharply reduced. On the morning of December 11, Luzhou Laojiao opened at nearly 8%, more than 4%, and on December 13, its share price fell 5 again51%。
Liquor stocks generally have the commonality of rising and falling together. On December 13, Kweichow Moutai ** nearly 3%;Wuliangye fell nearly 4%;Shede Liquor**435%, a new low in more than two years;Yanghe shares** more than 35%, approaching a new low in more than three years.
Compared with the most in history, Shede Liquor is more than 66%, Wuliangye is more than 61%, Yanghe is nearly 58%, Luzhou Laojiao is 45%, and Kweichow Moutai is also more than 34%.
At present, the stock price is not too different from the most important in history, there are Gujing Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Yingjia Gongjiu, these second- and third-tier liquor companies, of which Gujing Gongjiu and Yingjiagong Liquor are Anhui liquor companies.
Wrapping up
When it comes to overcapacity, many people always think of steel and coal first, then think of photovoltaics and lithium batteries, and it seems that few people think of liquor.
In fact, with the large-scale expansion of liquor companies and the decline in liquor sales, the severity of overcapacity in the industry should be realized.
Feitian Moutai doesn't seem to be a bottle hard to find, and it has a bottle of more than 2,500 **, which has fallen a lot compared with the previous 3,000.
Feitian Moutai, the strongest one, has fallen a lot, so are other brands going to fall even more?
It may not be accurate to compare liquor with Fangcun's financial tea, but it has a large number of speculative funds and speculation to push the ** up.
The traditional industry is fried once, and it is often followed by a long time, which is not based on the law of human will.