The winter solstice is on the ninth day, and the weather is cold. The motorcycle market is also ushering in a "winter".
According to the data of the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, from January to October this year, the production and sales of motorcycles were 1653740,000 and 1619590,000 units, down 917% and 1181%。Among them, the production and sales of large-displacement recreational motorcycles (displacement format GT 250cc) are 43690,000 and 45110,000 units, down 112% and 985%。
As a "big toy for young people", why can't motorcycles be sold?
Large-displacement motorcycles frequently reduce prices.
The changes in the motorcycle market are not only reflected in the production and sales data, but also in some motorcycle dealers and motorcycle owners.
Ms. Liu, a sales person at the BMW Motorcycle 4S store, said in an interview with China News Service that at present, the original price is 25BMW's flagship rally motorcycle 1250gs (also known as: BMW Water Bird) with about 50,000 yuan has the largest price reduction, and now you can buy naked cars in your early 170,000s, which is equivalent to about seven percent off the original price.
New cars are seven percent off, and motorcycles in the second-hand motorcycle market have undoubtedly become "cabbage prices". Lao Sun, a motorcycle dealer in a new first-tier city, said that his motorcycle shop has been losing money for 11 months in a row, and he has "hitched" all the money he made in the previous two years.
Mr. Shi, the owner of the car, told China News Service that he bought a Triumph brand motorcycle for 130,000 yuan in April this year, and traveled 5,000 kilometers. However, the highest ** given by the second-hand car dealer was only 70,000 yuan, and he lost more than 60,000 yuan in just half a year, nearly half.
Why are the prices of large-displacement motorcycles frequently reduced this year?
Ma Xinhui, head of the Chinese marketing department of KTM and Husqvarna, said that the production scale of imported cars is generally determined six months or a year in advance according to sales expectations. When placing production orders in 2022, the market is expected to be more optimistic based on the situation in recent years. However, this year's downward revision in demand has led to inventory of vehicles of various brands.
In an interview, Liuyi, the manager of motorcycle life, also said that this year, large dealers, importers and domestic car dealers are facing the problem of overstocking motorcycle inventory. In particular, import dealers currently have a large backlog of motorcycles, many of which are customized to meet the needs of the Chinese market, so it is difficult to resell them to other countries.
Liuyi said that in order to quickly recover the upfront cost of investment, many car companies have chosen to reduce prices**. This in turn squeezes the profit margins of the domestic motorcycle and second-hand motorcycle market.
Why can't motorcycles be sold?
China News Service interviewed several owners who bought large-displacement motorcycles during the price reduction tide and found that most owners already own one or more large-displacement motorcycles, and buying the second and third new motorcycles is more to pay for their hobbies.
Motorcycle blogger Cheng Longlong said that at the current stage, motorcycle sports are more regarded as a recreational activity, and all hobbies have a freshness period and shelf life, usually about three years. The motorcycle craze exploded in a big way in 2020, and once the freshness period passed, many people lost interest.
He believes that the large-displacement motorcycle market has experienced a massive explosion in the past few years, attracting a large influx of new players. Over time, people's enthusiasm for the hobby gradually cooled, forming a distinct three-year cycle. This phenomenon is related to the characteristics of the large-displacement motorcycle itself, which focuses more on personalization, fashion and entertainment in nature.
At the same time, some large-displacement motorcycles tend to be used as a means of entertainment rather than a means of daily transportation compared to small-displacement motorcycles. Therefore, the "cooling" of large-displacement motorcycles is also a reasonable trend.
In addition, motorcycle sales are also affected by the ban on motorcycles in various places.
According to incomplete statistics from the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, the proportion of provincial capitals and municipalities directly under the central government that prohibit and restrict motorcycles accounts for about 80%, most of them.
First- and second-tier cities are subject to the ban on motorcycles, covering the vast majority of large cities and economically developed areas. The ban and restriction policies in these large cities have a radiation-driven effect, which will inevitably affect the consumer demand for motorcycles.
Will the motorcycle market pick up?
Unlike four-wheeled vehicles, two-wheeled motorcycles, as a relatively "special" type of transportation, are more affected by seasonal changes. As a rule of thumb, autumn and winter have always been off-seasons for the motorcycle industry. Several analysts expect the wave of price cuts to end as early as spring 2024.
Zhang Hongbo, secretary general of the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, said in an interview with China News Service that the recovery of the real economy is a gradual process, and the policy effect will also take some time to appear. Next year, the motorcycle market is expected to show a trend of first declining and then rising. Taking into account many factors, it is expected that the downward trend of domestic motorcycles will usher in an inflection point in June and July next year. As the overall economy moves forward steadily, the demand for leisure and entertainment tools such as motorcycles is likely to increase.
In addition, some cities are moving forward with specific plans to lift the ban on motorcycles, which will also create some new opportunities for motorcycle consumption.
The person in charge of an imported brand with a large price reduction this year told China News Service that in the second half of this year, the imported brand gradually began to adjust and began to clean up the inventory. From the brand's point of view, the first activity that began in the second half of this year has played an important role in inventory clearance. At present, the overall situation in the fourth quarter has improved compared with the first half of the year.
He revealed that next year, most imported car companies will significantly reduce their sales expectations in the Chinese market, and the arrival of imported motorcycles next year will be reduced accordingly.
It is expected that with the gradual digestion of inventory, the inventory will be completely wiped out in early spring next year. Starting from the second or third quarter of next year, imported brands will gradually enter a relatively normal state, and the first-class system will also be stable. (The country is a through train).