The richest man s assets have been speculated again!Hundreds of billions of market capitalization, i

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-31

Kunpeng Project

Text丨Yu Duoduo Editor丨Baijin.

*丨正經社 (ID: zhengjingshe).

This article is about 2400 words).

Recently, ** has been falling endlessly, but there is one ** that has been strengthening against the trend.

As of January 9, the Shanghai Composite has fallen by -2 in the first five trading days of the year73%, and the GEM fell by -740%。

But from December 15, 2023 to the present, this ** has risen by more than 70%, and its market value has returned to 100 billion.

It is Wantai Biology.

The richest man in China for three consecutive years, Zhong Sui, is the actual controller of Wantai Biotech and currently directly holds 1817% of the equity, indirectly held through Yangshengtang 5698% of the shares, a total of 7515%。

In the 2023 Hurun China 100 Rich List released on December 12, Zhong has just topped the list with a total wealth of 450 billion yuan.

From December 15 to now, in less than a month, Wantai Biotech has brought more than 32 billion yuan of wealth growth to the richest man.

The style of painting is very familiar.,The direct reason for this round of **,FromDecember 14, 2023 on the Investor Interactive PlatformInteractive responses

The reply said: Wantai Biologics 9-valent HPV vaccine phase, the on-site work of the main clinical trial V8 phase visit has been completed, and specimen testing is underway.

As soon as the reply came out, the stock price, which had been hovering at a low level for a long time, came to a daily limit the next day, and then started a steep climbing mode.

The style of painting is also familiar with the fact that along with the interactive reply, some analysts began to "spoiler",The clinical trial and approval of the 9-valent HPV vaccine may be completed ahead of scheduleWantai Bio's nine-valent HPV vaccine is the fastest progressing in China, which has a great impact on the future market structure, and the market is more concerned.

However, according to the past experience, the trend of this "demon stock" is not only catalyzed by such news, but there may be other reasons in it.

Can Wantai Bio's share price continue to be strong, and is the market value worth 100 billion yuan?

Let's first analyze how significant the 9-valent HPV vaccine is. To understand this problem, it is necessary to sort out the development process of Wantai Biology.

From its establishment in 1991 to 2001 for more than 10 years, Wantai Biotech has been unpopular. It wasn't until Zhong Sui appeared that he quickly took off.

In 2001, Zhong acquired 95% of the equity of Wantai Biotechnology for 17.1 million yuan through Yangshengtang Holdings, and began to develop HPV vaccines.

By 2019, Wantai Bio's operating income reached 118.4 billion yuan, including 9 diagnostic reagents6.5 billion yuan, accounting for 8377%。And in the vaccine business revenue of 1496640,000 yuan, accounting for only 13%。

At this time, Wantai Biotech is still an out-and-out in vitro diagnostic company, which is far from the image of the current vaccine company.

In 2020, when the epidemic broke out in full swing, the bivalent HPV vaccine "Xinkoning", which had just been approved by Wantai Biotech, officially started sales in May of that year, becoming the first HPV bivalent vaccine in China.

It was in April of this year that Wantai Biotech was listed on the main board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and officially landed on the secondary market. Due to the increase in demand for epidemic diagnostic reagents, coupled with the superposition of multiple reasons such as the approval and sale of bivalent vaccines, the stock price increased from the issue price of 875 yuan shares all the way to 12418 yuan shares, an increase of more than 13 times. And pull 25 daily limits in a row, if Uncle Zheng is not mistaken, it should be the one with the most new shares listed.

In 2020, Wantai Bio's total operating income was 235.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9888%。Among them, vaccine revenue is 71.1 billion yuan, accounting for 3022%;Diagnostic reagents revenue 117.2 billion yuan, accounting for 8377% to 4979%。

As soon as Xinkonine was listed, it brought a significant increase in performance. This increment is not only reflected in earnings, but also makes the capital market give a higher valuation.

In 2022, Wantai Bio's operating income will reach 1118.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9451%。Among them, the vaccine segment achieved revenue of 849.3 billion yuan, accounting for 75 percent of total revenue93%, has become an authentic vaccine company.

It is also based on this logic that at the same time as the news that the on-site work of the V8 phase of the main clinical trial of the nine-valent vaccine has been completed, funds began to speculate that the nine-valent vaccine can still replicate the miracle of the bivalent vaccine, and quickly raised the market value to more than 100 billion yuan.

Can the production of the nine-valent vaccine really keep Wantai Biotech above 100 billion in market value?

At present, there are 5 HPV vaccines on the market in China: Wantai Biotech's bivalent vaccine, Walvax Biologics' bivalent vaccine, GlaxoSmithKline's bivalent vaccine, and Merck's quadrivalent and 9-valent vaccines. Among them, Merck has a 90% market share.

Wantai Biotech expects that the first phase of its nine-valent vaccine project will not reach the level of 20 million doses per year until about 2026, and it is possible to form a ** capacity of more than 30 million doses per year around 2027. According to this rough calculation, the nine-valent vaccine will also contribute profits from 2025 at the earliest.

And there are still various uncertainties in the middle, such as centralized procurement, involution, new competitors, etc.

Biopharma stocks are an interesting industry that places a special emphasis on actual performance, and often the stock price is synchronized with performance. Even if you blow the sky, the stock price will not have a good reaction if the performance is not realized.

And Wantai Bio's performance in 2023 is not ideal, with the end of the epidemic, revenue and profitability have also declined significantly.

In the first three quarters of 2023, the operating income was 496.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4256%;Net profit attributable to parent company was 180.8 billion yuan, down 54 percent year-on-year15%;The non-net profit attributable to the parent was 167.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5654%;

Even if it is estimated that the total profit in 2025 will be 3 billion yuan, 30 times higher than the industry average, the valuation will only be about 90 billion yuan.

Moreover, there are still uncertainties until the middle of 2025.

In other words, even if the nine-valent vaccine is officially launched, it will not have a significant impact on the stock price in the short term. Therefore, there should be other reasons for this wave.

According to analysts at Zhengjingshe, there are two other possible reasons.

First, the emotional hype of pure capital huddles.

At present, A-shares have an accelerated downward trend, almost more than 4,000 companies every day, in this case, many funds have found their own way and opened up a group mode.

This kind of huddle is mainly reflected in two directions, one is the first-class demon stock huddle dominated by Yashi Optoelectronics and Qingyuan shares.

The second is the group of high-dividend institutions represented by Yangtze Power and China Shenhua.

Only these two ways can circumvent **. So there is a group of funds, through the reason of interacting with investors, to open the first mode of group heating.

This kind of huddle also has a characteristic, that is, when the market environment is bad, they will choose to huddle, and when the general rise, they are often easy.

This kind of ** is inherently irrational, so the constraints of valuation do not work.

Another possibility is that someone is deliberately driving up the stock price in anticipation of the imminent lifting of the ban.

Relevant information shows that on January 15, 2024, it is expected that the ** that meets the conditions for lifting the ban is 36210,000 shares, the actual market ** is 36210,000 shares, accounting for 029%。

This part of the shares is the shares placed by Wantai Biotech on July 15, 2022.

The original allotment** was 13533 yuan, and then the company had a transfer, and now the estimated cost is 95$95 shares.

And Wantai Bio's ** today ** is 8165 yuan shares, distance 9595 yuan of shares of ** and 175% or so of space.

It is reasonable to speculate that there is some money that has an incentive to pull up the stock price.

However, there is a time cost to fundsWhen I set up a share to give you the money, I put it for more than a year, not only did I have no interest, but I also lost the principal.

In fact, there are many examples of A-shares cooperating with the lifting of the ban, releasing good news, and pulling up stock prices in history.

From this point of view, this surge is not a revaluation, but a capital speculation. When this part of the funds completes its mission, it may be withdrawn. At that time, the share price of Wantai Biotechnology will gradually return to the normal value range.

The ** who has participated in it, like all the stories that have happened before, is still in the fire, and you must be extremely careful. [Produced by "Zhengjing Society"].

Editor-in-charge|Tang Weiping, editor|Du Hai Baijin Editorial |Proofreading by Ann Ann|Yes.

Disclaimer: The views in this article are for reference only and should not be used as investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.

Friends who like the article, please pay attention to Zhengjingshe, we will continue to carry out value discovery and risk warning

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