Corn is strangled, snow ** breaks records!The cold winter challenges the corn market
Preface. Recently, Shandong's grain market has seen unusual fluctuations, which is very different from past trends. Normally, due to climate change, transportation is hampered, so the supply of cereals falls and prices rise. But this year, Shandong's grain output did not grow as expected, but fell sharply during a heavy snowfall. What is even more surprising is that during this period, cereal supplies rose sharply, reaching an all-time high. This is particularly noticeable as supplies reached 1,882 units in late November last week. Within one day, Shandong's corn cost 7 cents, swept away the momentum of the previous **, and returned to 13 yuan a kilogram.
At the same time, in the northeast, the first level of corn continued to decline, although the decline was not as large as that of Shandong, but it still made people feel depressed. It is clear that this incident is unusual. Although this year's corn production has increased by more than 10 million tons, due to the sluggish pig **, the farmers' enthusiasm for filling the fence has decreased, but the pigs in the field still have to eat a lot of things. In addition, with the development of cereals, some alternative products such as wheat and rice have been eliminated, and cereals have once again occupied the mainstream position in the feed market. Even if there is a drop in demand, it will not cause such a big drop. Who is the "strangled"?This is a question worth pondering.
For this cereal**, we can describe it in two words. The first sentence is:"When you fall, someone else falls"。The so-called "people" refer to grain buyers, merchants, grain merchants, etc. Perhaps it was the huge pressure brought about by the rise in grain prices in the past few years, but now it is a good time to reduce prices, and they have reduced prices one after another, and they have not been relentless. Merchants and grain merchants tend to raise food prices when the market wants it, but when pessimistic expectations become stronger, they will keep it down to the minimum. Due to this year's increase in grain production, the pressure on supply is already high, so traders have taken a wait-and-see attitude and have not entered the market, so the pressure on supply growth is increasing.
In this case, in the event of an emergency, it is likely to cause a sharp drop in the ** of corn. The second term is called the "degreen degree." It's a non-zero-sum game where two suspects are tried separately and can be sentenced to one year in prison if both refuse to admit guilt;If both parties plead guilty, they are liable to imprisonment for 8 years;If one party denies it, the other party admits that the person who refuses to admit guilt shall be sentenced to 10 years' imprisonment and the person who pleads guilty may be freed. Logically, both sides denied it, but in practice, this was rare, and both sides eventually admitted and were each sentenced to eight years in prison. This state of mind is very similar to that of today's food sellers.
Logically speaking, collective prudence will reduce the supply of grains and thus increase the supply of grains. But in fact, this is a very difficult thing, if it is not sold, someone will come to buy it, and when the time comes, he will be the only one who stays here, and no one will feel at ease, forming a prisoner's situation, so they will take out their own things and sell them, so as to increase the yield of corn. Therefore, the current corn ** has gradually come out of the relationship between supply and demand, dominated by feelings, and is easily affected, which will be a very dangerous situation. Although the current corn is inevitable, it is not conducive to it, and the violent fluctuations will also cause people to panic extremely, resulting in deformity, and everyone will not profit from it.
The conclusion is that there are many reasons for the abnormal changes in the grain market in Shandong, such as grain collection enterprises, merchants, and distributors. Among these factors, the grain purchasing company wants to alleviate the economic pressure of previous years by cutting prices;Merchants and grain distributors also change their strategies in response to market demand. In addition, the psychological state of the "prisoner dilemma" also leads to difficulties in the behavior of the group of food sellers. This makes the ** of corn gradually come out of the gap between supply and demand, and is more influenced by popularity. However, this is not good for the market, causing the market to be deformed, and increasing the risk of the participants. Therefore, to find a way to stabilize the corn ** and not let ** violently ** again, this requires all aspects to think carefully.