Financial Commentary Moody s downgrades China s rating, the most important thing is to do your own t

In the past week or so, there has been no update for various reasons, and it is really not easy to write after work, and today I finally got back to normal. Let's start with Moody's downgrade of China.

A few days ago, Moody's announced that it would maintain China's sovereign credit rating of A1 unchanged, but downgraded the outlook of China's sovereign credit rating from stable to negativeIn addition, Moody's has also downgraded the ratings of more than 100 Chinese companies, including nearly 20 Chinese banks and insurance institutions, and a number of state-owned enterprises, urban investment and leading private enterprisesMoody's also downgraded its credit rating outlook for Hong Kong and Macau.

The old rule, let's talk about the conclusion first. Moody's downgrade, just the beginning!In the future, there is a high probability that the three major rating companies of Moody's, S&P and Fitch will downgrade China's sovereign rating and Chinese enterprise ratings on a larger scale and continuously

At the beginning of November, Vanke's rating was downgraded, and stocks and bonds suffered a double kill, which I mentioned in "Financial Commentary: Vanke's Dollar Bond "Thunder" Is Just the Beginning".In the hands of the West, the right to speak on ratings is a powerful long-range fixed-point assault**.

In the hands of the West, the right to speak on ratings is a powerful long-range fixed-point assault**. This time, it's just to remove Vanke's A, that's it, what if the next time we focus on downgrading the ratings of Chinese enterprises in large quantities?What if the ratings of state-owned enterprises and local ** are suddenly downgraded?What if the ratings of relevant entities are continuously adjusted or even downgraded in a large area?

Weiyan,**Weiyan Financial Short Comment: Vanke's dollar bond "thunderstorm" is just the beginning.

We also have several major rating agencies in China, such as China Chengxin and Dagong, but their scope of influence is mainly in China, and there is still a big gap in the world, and the recognition in other countries is not high.

At present, the most authoritative and top rating agencies in the world are S&P, Moody's in the United States and Fitch in Europe, all of which have a history of more than 100 years. The rating results of these three rating companies are widely recognized as the credit vane of the world's financial market.

It is not so easy for rating agencies to be recognized by the market, and the most important thing is to always adhere to an objective and fair position, use professional analysis and rating, and continue to accumulate and obtain market recognition.

After more than 100 years, the three major rating companies have been able to get to their current position, and their own skills are indeed world-class, even in the face of sovereign entities such as the United States and Europe, they can also show strong and objective professional standards.

Those who pay attention to finance may be impressed. The downgrade comes on the heels of the downgrade of the United States by the three major rating companies in the previous months. On 1 August, Fitch downgraded the US credit rating to 'AA+' from 'AAA';On November 10, Moody's announced that it would downgrade the outlook for the U.S. sovereign credit rating from "stable" to "negative" (similar to China's downgrade).

At that time, a group of bigwigs such as the U.S. Treasury Department, Congress, and White House spokesmen came out to criticize the rating agencies, and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen directly accused Fitch of being "arbitrary and based on outdated data", which was countless times more fierce and excessive than the response of our Treasury Department.

Rating agencies themselves survive on credit, and rating downgrades generally occur earlier than actual risk events, and all rating results will be verified in subsequent market developments. If the rating results of the rating agency are unprofessional and deviate from the subsequent market reality, it will slowly lose the trust of the market. Therefore, the top rating agencies are very fond of feathers, and generally speaking, the rating results are more credible.

In stark contrast, there is still a big gap between the rating agencies of our domestic financial market and the world's top three ratings.

For example, in the previous well-known substantive default event of Yongmei Bond, the rating of China Chengxin International was still AAA on the day of default, and it was only downgraded from AAA to BB the next day, which did not play a role in pre-warning at all.

The main reason is that our financial system, or mainly the buyer's market dominated by state-owned assets, credit ratings, clubs, law firms and other financial intermediaries rely on large financial institutions and enterprises to purchase services to survive. The rating of the open market is relatively better, after all, everyone has to rely on credit to eat, and the appearance of eating should not be too ugly. In the field of non-public market, for example, the rating of non-standard projects, it is not difficult to only pay in place, and a few A's.

However, when the problem rises to the level of a game between countries, the three major rating companies, although professional, are not absolute. Professionalism often becomes worthless in the face of politics.

After World War II, the three major rating companies have consistently rated the United States AAA. In 2011, when Obama was the leader of the United States, the two parties in the United States were entangled and quarreled for a long time over the raising of the debt ceiling and the closure of the United States. On August 5, 2011, Standard & Poor's announced that it would downgrade its home country's U.S. sovereign rating from "AAA" to "AA+".

The U.S. financial market was stunned, and the U.S. stock market was **6% on the day. Then then-US Treasury Secretary Geithner jumped out and scolded the Standard & Poor's as "extremely bad", "completely wrong in the calculations" and "completely wrong in the conclusion", and Obama quickly stepped down and criticized the S&P rating.

In the end, the U.S. Department of Justice came out directly, saying that it had been investigating the rating performance of S&P during the 2008 financial crisis, and it just so happened that the results of the investigation had been made in the past few days, and S&P's rating work was "intervened" and "inappropriately rated". Then, a few days later, Sharma, the president of Standard & Poor's, was forced to leave. Later, the U.S. Department of Justice also sued Standard & Poor's for false ratings, demanding $5 billion in damages, and finally settled out of court to pay $1 billion in compensation.

Sharma, an Indian who rose to the high office of S&P president by virtue of his talents, naively thinks that liberal democracy is the most universal core value, but he does not see that liberal democracy is nothing in the face of national and political interests.

What we are facing at present is the fact that the state apparatus of the United States has been working at full speed to suppress China's development. To put it simply, the United States has used and will continue to use all necessary means except all-out war to stifle China's economic development and industrial upgrading. The world's mainstream ratings, which claim to be professional and objective, are naturally important in the hands of the United States.

Therefore, discard illusions and be prepared to accept the subsequent larger-scale and sustained downgrades of China's sovereign rating and Chinese corporate ratings by the three major rating companies.

Some things, in fact, are Xi to it, and slowly I don't feel it!Fantasizing about other people's mercy often doesn't end well!The most important thing is to do our own thing, seize the time to solve our internal economic contradictions, and deal with the thunder that may be detonated in our body as soon as possible, which is the way to solve the problem.

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The 60th original article of the same name [Weiyan Finance] on the whole network uses logical thinking to analyze the laws behind economic life. It's not easy to write after work, if you think it's good, help pay attention to it!