In 2023, China's property market will show a trend of "both volume and price decline", and favorable policies seem to be difficult to reverse the market decline. The famous economist Ma Guangyuan proposed a striking solution, he proposed to create a shortage by demolishing two-thirds of the old and dilapidated houses, similar to the previous monetization of shantytowns. However, is this plan feasible and can it really save the property market?
With the advent of 2023, China's property market is facing unprecedented challenges. Housing prices continue to be the same, transaction volume is sluggish, and favorable policies seem to be difficult to work. All this has raised concerns about the future trend of the property market.
Example: Xiao Wang is a young man who has just entered the society and has always dreamed of one day owning his own house. However, the current property market situation discourages him, and the high housing prices make him feel hopeless.
In the face of the crisis in the property market, Ma Guangyuan proposed a controversial solution: to demolish two-thirds of the old and dilapidated houses before 2000 to create a shortage. This plan was inspired by the previous monetization of shantytown reconstruction, that is, through the demolition of old houses, a certain amount of economic compensation was provided to the relocated households to stimulate the demand for housing.
Example: There are a large number of old houses in the old city of a city that have been in disrepair for a long time, and the community environment is poor and the housing conditions are worrying. Ma Guangyuan's proposal means that these old houses can be demolished to promote the development of the property market through the demand for housing.
However, there is a huge gap between rhetoric and operation. First, the demolition of old houses is slow, and it will take decades to complete the demolition. Second, the high cost of demolition has become a huge obstacle, especially in first-tier cities, where the cost of relocation households can reach millions of yuan.
Example: Xiao Zhang's family lives in the old city center of the city, and although their house is in disrepair, the demolition cost is too high, and even if they get compensation, it is difficult to buy a suitable new house nearby.
Even if the old house is demolished, the demolition households may choose to wait and see because of their lack of confidence in buying a house. In addition, the liquidity problem of developers is also a problem that cannot be ignored, and it is not easy to build new homes on a large scale in the short term.
Example: Xiao Li once bought an off-plan property, but due to the bankruptcy of the developer, the house became unfinished, and Xiao Li suffered significant financial losses. This experience made him cautious about buying a home.
In view of the difficulty of practical operation, the author believes that the key to solving the problem of the property market lies in reducing the current high housing prices. By reducing housing prices, it can stimulate potential housing demand and improve people's ability to buy houses. At the same time, providing a large number of affordable housing to low-income groups to meet their housing needs is an effective way to stabilize the property market.
Example: A certain land** attracts many buyers by lowering the transaction price of the land, enabling the developer to lower the price of the property**. In addition, the construction of affordable housing has also been vigorously promoted to solve the housing problem of low-income groups.
In general, the solution to the property market problem is not achieved overnight, and multiple factors need to be taken into account. Although Ma Guangyuan's proposal has its merits, the difficulties of practical operation make it difficult to be a panacea. Solving the property market problem requires the joint efforts of developers, developers and home buyers to find a reasonable balance in order to promote the property market back on track.