Finance Associated Press, December 12 (edited by Niu Zhanlin).The International Monetary Fund's No. 2 warned on Monday that a clear shift in the global economy and potentially bilateral, could trigger a "new Cold War" given growing geopolitical tensions such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gopinath said at a conference on the same day that if the world economy is divided into two camps due to factors such as the conflict in Ukraine, global losses could reach 25% to 7%.
She pointed out: "The epidemic and war have changed the pattern of global economic relations, and there has been a major shift in basic bilateral relations. While there is no sign of a broad regression in globalization, rifts are emerging as the global economy** becomes increasingly a reality. ”
Gopinath added that if we continue to deepen, we may find ourselves in a new Cold War. The disruption of cargo shipments due to the impact of the 2019 pandemic, as well as the surge in energy and commodities due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have prompted countries to shift their focus to protecting their own chains, i.e. producing more products domestically, or providing "support" to other countries with which they have more stable relationships.
Last year, around 3,000** restrictions were implemented globally, almost three times as many as in 2019. Gopinath commented that such a ** could have serious consequences, which could lead to a greater impact on the resilience and security of countries' domestic economies.
The IMF sees clear signs that FDI is being broken down along geopolitical divides. "If not properly managed, the costs can easily outweigh the benefits and have the potential to reverse the macro environment of peace, integration and growth that has helped lift billions of people out of poverty for nearly three decades," Gopinath said. ”
Noting that the global world will make it difficult to address common challenges such as climate change, Gopinath called on countries to take a "pragmatic" approach to preserve the benefits of freedom as much as possible.
She said a "green corridor" agreement could guarantee the international flow of minerals critical to the clean energy transition, while a similar agreement on basic food commodities and medical supplies could ensure minimal cross-border flows in an increasingly uncertain world.
"Such an agreement would avoid climate change disruption, food insecurity, and reduce pandemic-related humanitarian catastrophes," Gopinas said. ”
She said that any import restrictions based on *** grounds are likely to be narrow, and countries should assess whether there is really a shortage of companies from low-risk regions, especially widely used technology companies such as semiconductors, before deciding to move production back home.
Finance Associated Press Niu Zhanlin).