According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission's ** Monitoring Center, in the second week of December 2023, the national pig feed price ratio was 430，Ring on monthDrop 092%。Thinking about the future from the point of view of ** and costHogsThe estimated loss per head of breeding is 37$18. In the second week of December, pig prices showed a trend of falling first and then rising. In the first half of the week, the breeding unit due to the greater pressure of goods, there was a situation of price reduction;In the second half of the week, the temperature and snowfall in many places in China led to an improvement in terminal consumption, and at the same time, the rain and snow weather was also limitedHogsThe transfer of transportation, the market decreased, and the breeding units began to resist the price and reluctant to sell, which led to the price of pigs. On the whole, although pig prices may rise slightly in the short term, in factHogs's earnings expectations remain poor.
fromAgricultureAccording to the data of the Ministry of Rural Affairs, as of 14:00 on December 15, the average pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 2006 yuan kg, up 02%。West**It is pointed out that the main reason for the pig price ** is that the south has entered the peak season and tradition of picklingChinese New YearDuring the stocking season, downstream demand has increased. Expected inChinese New YearUnder the increase in demand in the peak consumption season, pig prices will still be boosted to a certain extent. However, due to this yearHogsWith sufficient production capacity and high willingness of farmers to slaughter, the overall pig price will remain sluggish during the peak seasonHogsThe magnitude will be relatively limited.
Similarly, the Debang** report also believes that in the short term,Hogs**The pressure is still high, and the increase in pig prices in the peak season is limited;And in the long term, it is expected that the first half of 2024** will increase year-on-year, plusChinese New YearAfter entering the possibility of entering the off-season of consumption, pig prices are expected to see the low point of this cycle. In the case of tight cash flow, continued weak commodity pig prices, and pessimistic expectations, the reduction of production capacity is expected to accelerate.
At present, the acceptance of ** commodities in the terminal market is limited, so it is expected that the market supply and demand situation may be slightly deadlocked in the third week of December, and the rise and fall adjustment of pig prices will be more frequent. Although the average price level may have a slight upward trend, butHogs's earnings expectations remain unpromising. This is mainly due to the following aspects:
First of all, the domestic breeding units, in the face of the market reduction, resist the price and reluctant to sell, so that the pig price has the best opportunity.
Secondly, due to rain and snow weatherHogsThe transportation was blocked, and the market volume shrank, which also indirectlydirectly promoted the price of pigs.
Re-analysis, due to the breeding unit in the first half of the week breeding unit delivery pressure is greater, resulting in a price reduction. This factor also indirectly caused the fluctuation of pig prices.
Although data from the National Development and Reform Commission's ** Monitoring Center showsHogsAverage price level orRing on monthSlightly up, but actuallyHogs's expected earnings performance has not improved. This is mainly due to many influencing factors, including market supply and demand, breeding units are reluctant to sell, etc. It is expected that in the next market, the supply and demand situation will be slightly deadlocked, and the frequency of pig price adjustment will increase. Although there may be a certain trend in pig prices, overall,HogsThe magnitude will be relatively limited. Therefore, for farmers, it is necessary to respond carefully to market changes to avoid excessive losses. At the same time, for consumers, it is also necessary to reasonably plan the purchase time to obtain a relatively suitable **. In the current market environment, for the entire aquaculture industry, capacity reduction will become an important problem, so accelerating the reduction of production capacity will be a solution.