What is Macroeconomic Policy Orientation Alignment?How can China's economy move towards a brighter future?
From December 11th to 12th, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing.
The meeting proposedIt is necessary to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation. Strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies, incorporate non-economic policies into the assessment of the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthen policy coordination, and ensure that the same direction is exerted and a joint force is formed. Strengthen economic propaganda and guidanceSing the bright theory of China's economy.
This exposition contains two very important issues, and also points out the key points and directions for doing a good job in next year's economic work.
The policy orientation is the same
Let's start with the first one, which is to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation.
Consistency is to avoid policy inconsistencies. To put it more rationally, it is to avoid the fallacy of policy synthesis.
So, what is the synthesis fallacy?The synthesis fallacy is that when the same goal is broken down into different departments for implementation, it often incurs high coordination costs and even coordination failures, making it difficult to complete the set tasks.
Because the supervised objects are facing different regulatory departments, the policies of a single department seem to be perfect, but when the regulatory policies of different departments are jointly directed to the same regulatory object, the combined policy effect will be "discounted" or even "policy fight", which will cause it difficult to achieve the policy objectives smoothly, and even counterproductive.
To give a popular example, the current real estate industry is facing a severe dilemma, on the one hand, many places have introduced policies and measures to ensure the delivery of buildings, but on the other hand, there is a lack of substantial progress in the policy in terms of funds and supporting measures to support the delivery of buildings.
It can be seen that the key to avoiding the fallacy of policy synthesis is to enhance the consistency of macroeconomic policy orientation.
The so-called consistency is to have the same goal, the process is synergistic, and the effect is optimal. By strengthening the overall planning of policies, we can ensure that policies work in the same direction and form a joint force, so as to achieve the goals of policies.
It is worth noting that in addition to strengthening the communication and coordination of departmental policies, in order to achieve the best effect of policies, it is also necessary to do a good job in policy evaluationHow is it assessed?This requires giving full play to the role of third parties such as expert think tanks.
In November this year, when the general secretary presided over the third meeting of the Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform, he emphasized that experts are important intellectual resources to promote reform and development, and it is necessary to strengthen the political guidance of the expert team, improve the policy guarantee and incentive measures for experts to participate in public decision-making, and fully mobilize the enthusiasm and initiative of experts. It is necessary to establish and improve the whole process and whole chain management system from expert selection to assessment and supervision, improve the institutional norms for experts to participate in public decision-making in different fields and categories, clarify the responsibilities, rights and obligations and corresponding responsibilities of experts to participate in public decision-making, and encourage these experts to actively make suggestions and suggestions for the party and scientific decision-making.
Experts have a wealth of professional knowledge and can make more professional judgments on the introduction, implementation and effect of policies. **Departments should know how to ask experts before and after the implementation of the policy. Nowadays, many first-class departments have established expert think tanks, and learning to govern with brains should be an aspect that needs more attention in the future.
For example, the supervision of the real estate industry involves multiple departments such as housing and construction, finance, and land, and before the department issues a policy, in addition to doing a good job of communication and coordination with relevant departments, it is necessary to actively attract experts to participate in the pre-evaluation of the policy.
For example, in order to expand domestic demand and stimulate consumption, many places have implemented the policy of issuing consumption vouchers, so whether consumption vouchers really stimulate consumption, whether it is possible to cause large businesses to benefit small and medium-sized enterprises is not profitable, these need to be evaluated in a timely manner, and optimized and improved.
In short, the formation of a stable, fair and predictable policy environment and the formation of policy synergy can make the policy more effective.
Sing the bright theory of China's economy.
Looking at the second one, singing the theory of China's economic brightness is a new formulation.
When we talk about the theory of light, we often think of the saying - "the future is bright, but the road is tortuous".
The Politburo meeting of the Communist Party of China held in the middle of the year pointed out that after the smooth transition of epidemic prevention and control, economic recovery is a process of wave-like development and tortuous progress. China's economy has tremendous resilience and potential for development, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed.
The meeting held by the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China on December 8 also pointed out that "China's economy is rebounding for the better, and high-quality development is solidly promoted", and next year's economic work should "effectively enhance economic vitality, prevent and resolve risks, improve social expectations, consolidate and enhance the economic recovery trend, and continue to promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth".
The first economic work conference also pointed out that, on the whole, the favorable conditions for China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed, and confidence and confidence should be enhanced.
Wave-like development, zigzag progress", "rebound for the better, long-term for the better", from these meetings, the first has a clear understanding and judgment of China's economic development, and more importantly, it provides great confidence to all sectors of society.
A cargo ship slowly leaves the port of Qingdao in Shandong Province (drone**, photo taken on August 30, 2023). Xinhua News Agency (photo by Zhang Jingang).
In recent years, China's economic growth has slowed down due to multiple internal and external factors. Some experts pointed out that China's economy has shifted from attaching great importance to ironing out the economic cycle and reducing annual growth rate fluctuations as much as possible to improving tolerance for economic growth fluctuations and clarifying the "wave-like and tortuous nature" of economic recovery.
What are the changes in the underlying logic?
Previously, when we talked about the economy, we talked about the "troika": investment, consumption and foreign trade.
At present, with the changes in the international and domestic situation, uncertainties are increasing, and the original role of the troika is also changing. In the past, the development was driven by large-scale input of factors, and the growth was driven by the large-scale development of low-cost manufacturing, but now with the acceleration of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, data has become a new factor of production, and the development of digital economy and new quality productivity has also become an inevitable requirement to promote economic development, which requires us to change the mode of development and adjust the economic structure, so as to stimulate new momentum for economic growth.
We should take a sober view of the temporary fluctuations in China's economic growth, which is the inevitable process behind China's economic development from a stage of rapid development to a stage of high-quality development. In this regard, we should maintain sufficient strategic focus.
Strong positive expectations
Singing the theory of light and falling to the concrete is to strengthen economic propaganda and guidance, and shape positive expectations.
A market economy is fundamentally an economy of confidence. The expectation of economic development often has a strong self-fulfilling characteristic. It is future-oriented, but it reacts to the present.
Through the best guidance, timely publicity of the highlights of economic development, guide all sectors of society to form a consensus of "rebound for the better, long-term for the better", and actively mobilize the initiative of market players, in order to truly strengthen positive expectations and stimulate the endogenous driving force of economic recovery.
Workers debug equipment to produce photovoltaic modules for export at the Dongying Dahai Kelin Optoelectronics Intelligent Solar Module Production Workshop in Guangrao County, Dongying City, Shandong Province (photo taken on February 24, 2023). Xinhua News Agency (photo by Liu Yunjie).
In fact, the economic data of the first three quarters show that China's economy has not only seen marginal improvement, but also new forces are gathering. With the issuance of trillions of new treasury bonds and the further increase of various policies to stabilize growth, the policy effect will be further manifested in the first quarter of next year. We need to build confidence in this.
It is worth noting that while carrying out positive publicity, it is also necessary to do a good job in the management of public opinion, resolutely crack down on "small compositions" in the market, and prevent the spread of some untrue, erroneous, conjectural, and attacking remarks, triggering irrational reactions in the market, and aggravating the volatility of market expectations.
In this regard, to do a good job in expectation management, it is necessary for relevant departments to do a good job of interpretation, respond to market demands in a timely manner, so that the market can fully understand the intention of supervision, understand the background content of the policy, and guide market expectations with fuller information disclosure and more decisive regulatory measures.
China's economy has tremendous resilience and potential for development, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed.
The twists and turns of the road will not stop the bright future, and the resilient Chinese economy will surely usher in a brighter future.
*: Shandong propaganda.