2023 has come to an end, and many familiar ...... have been born online this yearEven the hot stalks that have a sound when you see the text, these high-frequency stalk culture and hot words have nothing to do with elegance and vulgarity, but they can often intuitively reflect the focus of society and industry. When we focus on pan-technology and even mobile phone segments, what are the hot words this year?What is the industry focusing on behind it?What are users curious about?At the end of the year, the PCConline mobile phone editorial department combined with the industry trends and public opinion hotspots in the past year, and summarized the "top ten hot words of the year" in the mobile phone industry, so as to condense the past and see the future.
Hot Word of the Year: Far ahead
From the high-frequency mantra in the mouths of brand executives, to the proper nouns in the tech world to refer to leading competitors, to becoming a company's brand image or even a registered trademark, there is an inextricable bond between "Far Ahead" and Huawei.
At the end of August this year, Huawei officially released the Mate60 series of mobile phones, Kirin returned, 5G restart, after a lapse of 1557 days, Huawei took the Mate 60 Pro as the beginning to stab the flagship mobile phone market, bringing some "far ahead" shocks to the mobile phone market that had been silent for a long time.
Taking advantage of the strong limelight of "5G + Kirin", the Mate60 series has not been sold first, and Huawei has also topped the hot search several times. CCTV official media, from the ** platform, and even the external network ** rushed to report that the Huawei Mate 60 in the ** wave was almost dismantled. The water falls and the stone comes out, and the Kirin 9000S chip, 5G-level downlink network speed, full-link coverage of domestic components, satellite communication, and star flash technology are ......When the Mate60 series returns with the technology of "lost and regained", we also know that the long-awaited Huawei is finally back.
Source: Counterpoint Research
According to a report released by Counterpoint Research, a data analysis agency, although the shipments of the global smartphone market continued to decline year-on-year in the third quarter of 2023, among the top ten smartphone brands, Huawei and Honor achieved double-digit annual growth rates.
According to a previous report by the agency, thanks to the newly launched Mate 60 series (equipped with Kirin 9000S SoC chip), Huawei's shipments in the third quarter increased by 37% compared with the same period last year, and its market share increased to 14%, ranking fifth in terms of shipments and becoming a big winner in the market.
Behind Huawei's high-profile return, we don't know the game of political and economic factors, but combined with the current market background, a series of breakthroughs made by Huawei undoubtedly highlight the vigorous development of the domestic semiconductor field. The influx of capital brought about by technological innovation and industrial transformation is ushering in an active period of rapid development for the domestic semiconductor industry.
Hot word of the year: folding screen mobile phone
If you pay attention to the relevant reports of the mobile phone market this year, "cold winter" and "freezing point" are undoubtedly the words that appear the longest. According to Counterpoint Research's latest report on global smartphone shipments**, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 5% year-on-year to 1.2 billion units in 2023, the lowest level in nearly a decade.
Global smartphone market shipments from 2013 to 2024.
Source: Counterpoint Research
In the context of the overall sluggish demand in the smartphone market, domestic mobile phone manufacturers are looking for another way and choosing to rely on folding screen mobile phones to gnaw the high-end market. According to Cinno Research data, in the third quarter of 2023, the sales of folding screen mobile phones in the Chinese market reached 1.98 million units, an increase of 175% year-on-year and 70% quarter-on-quarter, and it has been the twelfth consecutive quarter of positive year-on-year growth.
Since the birth of the folding screen, it has been five years, and under the trend of declining smartphone sales, the folding screen mobile phone has achieved a reversal of the decline and rescued the market by virtue of differentiation, and has become a sweet spot in the eyes of domestic mobile phone manufacturers. The vitality of the market segment is undiminished, and there are more and more mobile phone brands entering this field, as if whoever occupies the high ground in this field is the representative of the high-end.
According to Cinno Research data, in the third quarter of 2023, Huawei relied on the launch of new products in the Mate X5 series and the good market performance of the Mate X3 Pocket S to rank first in the market share of folding screen mobile phones in ChinaHonor won the second place in China with the Magic V2 launched in July, and achieved the largest sales growth among the TOP7 brandsVivo, Samsung, and OPPO ranked first in terms of market share.
III. Fourth, fifth. 
Image source Weibo Xiaomi spokesperson.
Fierce market competition will always be accompanied by ** bombardment,Previously,Huawei and Xiaomi on the hinge of the folding screen mobile phone"Keel hinge"The dispute has intensified,Even led to Huawei terminal BG CEO off the platform,Xiaomi company spokesman came forward to clarify,There is still no conclusion。
When a large number of brands pour into the folding track, and the blue ocean becomes a red ocean, it is inevitable that competition will intensify. However, behind the countless "war of words", it also shows from the side that the folding screen track is at the peak of momentum and win-win sales.
According to the "Top Ten Insights on China's Smartphone Market in 2024" report released by IDC a few days ago, it is expected that China's smartphone market shipments will reach 28.7 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 36%, shipments will remain stable in the next few years. In 2024, the shipment volume of China's folding screen mobile phone market will be close to 10 million units, a year-on-year increase of 532%；The compound growth rate will reach 375%。
The growth trend of folding screen mobile phones is undoubtedly injecting a shot in the arm for the entire smartphone**. Since 2023, most of the domestic folding screen mobile phones have gone through three to four generations of series iterations, achieving breakthroughs in safety and durability, light and thin, portable, interactive experience and other aspects, and the use experience of folding screen mobile phones is no longer what it used to be.
Hot word of the year: AI large model
Not long ago, OpenAI's biggest farce of the year finally came to an end, and OpenAI's official account tweeted that Sam Altman (Sam Altman) was reappointed as CEO and formed a new initial board of directors. In less than five days, Sam Altman went through several ups and downs, and finally made the board of directors of Open AI change and had the last laugh.
The beginning and end of this technological coup d'état is believed by the industry to be the disagreement between radicals and conservatives within Open AI, that is, conservatives believe that they should be wary of the risks arising from the rapid development of AIRadicals are eager to make great strides in the field of AI models and take the lead in entering the fourth industrial revolution after the influx of capital. Between the game between ideals and reality, it is difficult for Chat GPT not to be regarded as the fuse of Open AI farce.
According to The Atlantic, in a conversation with 10 current and former employees of OpenAI, a person familiar with the matter revealed: "After the release of ChatGPT, the path to profitability and revenue has become clearer, and the company can no longer avoid commercialization on the grounds of dedicating itself to idealistic research." Now, the needs of our customers are imminent. ”
A fire in Chat GPT has burned the global AI industry, and the AI model is regarded as a blue ocean for capital to pour in, and it has also become a clever way for consumer electronics manufacturers to save the market.
In foreign countries, Chat GPT has triggered a wave of AI, Microsoft has launched a new version of Bing Chat, Midjourney has led AI drawing, and it has not been until recently that Google released a demo of AI model Gemini**, which continues to harvest traffic;
In China, the popularity of AI large models is only increasing. Wenxin Yiyan, Ali Tongyi Qianwen, Xunfei Xinghuo, Douyin Skylark Model, etc., seem to form a new round of "100 model wars". In the field of consumer electronics, chip manufacturers such as Nvidia and Qualcomm are increasing their AI GPUsPC industry such as Lenovo previously unveiled its AI PC product plan, which is expected to be launched in September 2024;Mobile phone manufacturers are no exception, at present, vivo has taken the lead in landing the blue heart model on the X100 series, and brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and OPPO are also paving the way for AI large model ......
According to Counterpoint Research's recently released "Generative AI Smartphone Shipment Insights" report, 2024 is expected to be a key year for generative AI smartphones, with shipments estimated to reach 100 million unitsAnd by 2027, global generative AI smartphone shipments will reach 52.2 billion units, with a compound annual growth rate of 83%.
Source: Counterpoint Research
Why do AI large models have such a large market potential in the field of smartphones?In the past, smartphones were often the first to achieve a revolutionary product upgrade. In the past ten years from scratch, smart phones have replaced and squeezed out the market demand for products such as *** devices and digital cameras, and have become multi-purpose terminals integrating audio-visual and communication communication.
In today's smartphone market, on the one hand, there is a surplus of computing power under the current situation of overperformance, and on the other hand, it is urgent to seek a breakthrough under the trend of homogenization. Based on this, it is the right time for mobile phone manufacturers to implement AI models. Maybe everyone is not optimistic that the AI model can give mobile phone manufacturers "iPhone moment", but no one wants to rest on their laurels and become the next Nokia.
Hot word of the year: one-inch outsole
In recent years, the direction of the arms race of mobile phone brands has shown a trend of "the ebb tide of the game and the rise of the image", the gap between the hardware of mobile phones has gradually been smoothed out under the status quo of homogenization, and the strength of imaging has become the third growth point for mobile phone manufacturers to leverage user consumption. Relying on imaging to break through and stabilize the high-end market position, and then increase product pricing to increase profit margins, mobile phone manufacturers are gradually reaching a consensus.
Market research agency "GFK China" previously released a report saying that as of the third quarter of 2023, the average price of China's mobile phone market has increased to 3,480 yuan. In 2019, the average price of China's mobile phone market was still 2,685 yuan, and the price increased by nearly 800 yuan in just four years, with an average of 200 yuan per year, an increase of nearly 30%. Analysts said that in recent years, mobile phones have continued to grow, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of high-end mobile phones and the decline in sales of ultra-low-end mobile phones.
Photo source: gfk China.
In March this year, after the launch of the OPPO Find X6 series, Liu Zuohu, senior vice president and chief product officer of OPPO, said in an interview, "Regarding imaging, I firmly believe that this is the core experience of a high-end product. At that time, OPPO chose to equip the Find X6 series with Sony's IMX989 one-inch outsole sensor for the first time. Analyst agency IDC released a report saying that imaging will still be the main competition track for flagship mobile phones in 2023. IDC** outsole sensor will become the mainstream configuration of flagship images, and the one-inch outsole main camera will become the standard image configuration of flagship mobile phones.
Throughout the year, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have released a number of mobile phones that use a one-inch outsole main camera, Xiaomi 13Ultra, vivo X90 Pro+, OPPO Find X6 Pro, Xiaomi 14 Pro, vivo X100 Pro, ......The standard use of image flagship mobile phones, mobile phone manufacturers spare no effort to promote, and even in the next 2024, the "east wind" of the one-inch outsole sensor is still blowing.
The latest news shows that Sony has officially announced that it will launch the latest one-inch sensor light metaphor lyt900, which is an upgraded version of the previous IMX989 sensor process, which will be used by the OPPO Find X7 series for the first time;On the other hand, the domestic COMS manufacturer Haowei Technology will also launch a one-inch sensor OV50K, or it will be launched by the Honor Magic 6 seriesSamsung Semiconductor, which has always specialized in pixel miniaturization, was revealed to be developing a one-inch sensor as early as August this year, or continuing the name of the GN outsole series, with the model number ISOCELL GN6. Mobile phone manufacturers are making efforts to image, and COMS manufacturers are adding one-inch sensors, which is also highlighting the prosperity of market demand. After the relationship between supply and demand gradually stabilized, with the recovery of the high-end mobile phone market, the price of mobile phone sensors and lenses ushered in the bottom**.
In November this year, industry sources said that Samsung Semiconductor had notified customers that the price of its CIS chips would increase in the first quarter of 2024, mainly involving specifications of more than 32 million pixels, with an average increase of up to 25%, and some products up to 30%, driving the CIS market to usher in a comprehensive price increase tideOmniVision Technology also revealed that some of its sensors may increase in price in December, an increase of about 10%;Lens manufacturers Da Li Guang, Sunny Optics, Qiu Ti Technology, etc. have also been rumored to make ** adjustments recently.
In 2024, it will still be the one-inch sensor that will lead the flagship image, and more outsole sensors will also be popularized in mid-to-high-end mobile phones, and the outsole trend will continue. Behind the image involution, users can enjoy a better shooting experience, but they also have to pay for the price increase of the **chain hardware.
Hot Word of the Year: Self-developed system
On the morning of October 17th, Lei Jun, chairman of Xiaomi Group, posted on Weibo that Xiaomi's new self-developed system - Xiaomi Surging OS (Xiaomi HyperOS) The official version has been packaged, and the Xiaomi 14 series equipped with this system has been delivered to production. Lei Jun is quite proud of this: "From this moment on, Xiaomi Surging OS will gradually take over MIUI. This year is a historic moment for Xiaomi. ”
On November 1, vivo officially released its self-developed intelligent operating system, BlueOS, at the 2023 vivo developer conference. It is worth mentioning that the vice president of vivo said in an interview after the meeting that because he did not see the needs of users, the Blue River operating system is not compatible with Android applications, and the future depends on the situation.
Just like the large-scale model at the same time, the self-developed operating system has entered a period of explosive development and has become a key project for mobile phone manufacturers. Following Huawei Hongmeng, Honor, OPPO, Xiaomi, and vivo have all launched self-developed systems. Although there are differences in the degree of system integrity and adaptation progress, and most of the self-developed systems have not completely separated from Android, it is undeniable that the de-Android of domestic mobile phones has been an indisputable trend.
Taking Huawei, which is currently the first to develop its own operating system, as an example, in August this year, Huawei officially launched HarmonyOS 40, access to the AI model, the launch of the self-developed Ark engine, and the expansion of multi-scenario Internet of Everything are HarmonyOS 40 of the new upgrades. It is worth mentioning that the new HarmonyOS Next will be opened in the first quarter of tomorrow, which is based on OpenHarmony's self-developed across the board, removing the traditional Linux kernel and AOSP**, no longer compatible with Android applications, and can only use the installation package in HAP format, that is, HarmonyOS native applications. At that time, the HarmonyOS native application will be fully launched.
The search found that since the launch of the HarmonyOS native application, many mobile applications, including social networking, audio-visual, games, finance, education and other fields, are actively embracing the HarmonyOS ecosystem, just like a "HarmonyOS Thousand Sails" scene. Prior to this, PConline found in the Hongmeng APP test that there are only more than 60 Huawei Hongmeng version of the APP, and national-level software such as WeChat and Alipay are not currently adapted to Hongmeng OS.
The road to self-development is quite difficult. Yu Chengdong in Hongmeng 40 revealed at the press conference that the overall number of users of Hongmeng has reached 700 million users and has 2.2 million developers, and it also summarized the current situation of Hongmeng with the sentence "The light boat has crossed ten thousand mountains". Covering 700 million users, it has become the world's third largest smartphone operating system, although the situation is improving, but Huawei HarmonyOS is still far from the ideal of sailing.
In contrast, Android, which is known for its open-source system, has more than 2.5 million available apps on Google Play as of June this year. In the final analysis,HarmonyOSThe appeal in the operating system market is far less than Android and iOS,Although the HarmonyOS system, which has not started for a long time, currently has more than 2.2 million developers,But compared with Android's huge global developer base of more than 20 million,Hongmeng, the torch in the dark,It still needs to be lit brighter。
According to a survey by Counterpoint Research in March this year, Huawei's HarmonyOS accounted for 8% of China's smartphone operating system market and 2% of the global smartphone operating system in the fourth quarter of 2022. PConline quoted the latest news from Zhitong Finance and Economics, and Founder ** released a research report saying that in the first three quarters of 2023, the market share of Android iOS HarmonyOS in China's mobile phones was 718%/16.4%/11.8%。The market share of Hongmeng equipment is **, but it still temporarily exceeds the life and death line of 16%.
Why 16%?According to Huawei's internal analysis of past market conditions and successful operating system experience, less than 16% of operating systems will be phased out in the market competition. Therefore, in the early days of the release of Hongmeng OS, Wang Chenglu, the "father of Hongmeng", set the "life and death line" for Hongmeng OS, which was to achieve a market share of 16%. Achieving this goal, whether it is the current Huawei, or the subsequent Honor, OPPO, Xiaomi, vivo and other manufacturers, is not a quick result.
In the computing industry, operating systems, databases and chips are known as the three core technologies, and domestic manufacturers have piled up their own self-developed systems, which also shows that everyone wants to have their own "core technology". Just like the AI model per capita, whether it is the market or the necessity of the times, it is already a clear trend for mobile phone manufacturers to want to take a share of the Internet of Things era through self-developed systems.
pconline writes at the end:
In addition to the "far ahead", folding screen mobile phones, AI large models, one-inch outsoles, and self-developed systems discussed in this article, including lithography machines, Type-C, large memory, Apple iPhone 15, periscope telephoto, satellite communication, shadow tone and other hot words, also reflect the trend of the mobile phone industry this year and even next year.
In the new year, we still expect mobile phone manufacturers to make words and sentences and create hot stalks that make people's eyes black. Of course, we hope that mobile phone manufacturers can innovate and create products that make people shine.