Original Bear Transcendental Observer.com.
Text: Observer.com, Xiong Chaoran.
On December 29, local time, official data released by Vietnam's National Bureau of Statistics (GSO) showed that Vietnam's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in 2023 increased from 802% down to 505%, failing to reach the 6The 5% target is also lower than the 5 in the past decade87% average economic growth.
Reuters analysis pointed out that Vietnam's economic performance this year was affected by the stagnation of public investment due to weak global demand and increased anti-corruption efforts. Nikkei Asia believes this is in stark contrast to Vietnam's economic data last year, which saw a 25-year high in exports and domestic retail sales** after the lockdown was lifted.
Data map: Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, from ic photo
Reuters pointed out that Vietnam is a regional manufacturing hub that relies heavily on **. Vietnam's exports in 2023 fell by 4 percent from last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics4% to $355.5 billion, with shipments of smartphones, the largest foreign exchange earnings, down 83%。
According to the data, Vietnam's imports fell by 8 in 20239% to $327.5 billion, resulting in a ** surplus of $28 billion this year. In fact, the larger the surplus, the more supportive it is for the VND, but with imports falling sharply, this could indicate a slowdown in Vietnam's manufacturing activity in the coming period.
Although this year's growth is less than **65% target, but it is still a positive result, making Vietnam one of the fastest-growing economies in the region and the world. Vietnam's National Bureau of Statistics said.
In an effort to boost economic growth, Vietnam's central bank has cut its policy rate four times this year, cutting the refinancing rate and the discount rate by a cumulative 150 basis points each, but credit growth is still well below the target of 14%.
According to the data, the overall credit growth rate of the Vietnamese economy was 82%。Vietnam's central bank said that "the economic recovery is slow and the economy is still facing difficulties, so the demand for loans is weak".
Data map: The picture shows vendors walking on the street in Hanoi, Vietnam The picture is from ic photo
To compensate for the decline in exports, Vietnam decided to extend the VAT reduction policy to boost domestic consumption, while seeking to accelerate public investment, mainly infrastructure. However, public investment in Vietnam has stalled this year due to the country's growing anti-corruption campaign, known as the "burning furnace."
According to the Ministry of Planning and Investment, the expenditure of public funds in the year to the end of November was estimated at VND 461 trillion, which is only 65% of the target set this year.
In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics of Vietnam, GDP grew by 6. year-on-year in the fourth quarter of this year72%, up from 5 in the third quarter47% growth rate and 592% growth rate, while GDP growth in the third quarter of this year increased from 533% upward revision.
Vietnam's GDP growth curve from the first quarter of 2019 to the fourth quarter of 2023 Figure from Reuters.
Nikkei Asia quoted some analysts as saying that Vietnam's economic growth data this year is optimistic in the face of "various uncertainties". However, economic research firm Capital Economics said that Vietnam's growth momentum in the fourth quarter of this year is unlikely to continue if exports continue to weaken and commercial banks tighten lending due to a sharp rise in non-performing loans.
We think the (Vietnamese) economy will be in trouble in 2024. Capital Economics said in a report that Vietnam's economic growth rate next year is 60%。
In November this year, Vietnam's legislature approved the setting of 6 percent GDP growth for next year0% to 65% target and keep inflation under 40% to 45%. The central bank is likely to cut interest rates further next year and inflation is likely to remain within the target range, Capital Economics said, though the market widely expects no change in interest rates.
Original title: "Vietnam's GDP grew by 5 this year05%, not reaching the target of 65%》