In 2023, the "big year" of ETF development, how will the ETF perform?
As 2023 comes to a close, ETFs' annual results have also surfaced. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the secondary market, the Nasdaq ETF took the top three in one fell swoop, and the performance was gratifying, with three Nasdaq ETFs in the whole market rising by more than 50% for the whole year, among them, the Nasdaq ETF (159632) rose by 5809% won the championship.
Although the list of gainers was dominated by QDII, the best in the domestic market did not affect the enthusiasm of investors pouring into ETFs, on the contrary, investors' "buying more and more" and ** companies' efforts to form a joint force, jointly promoting the explosive growth of ETFs in 2023.
Wind data shows that as of December 29, the total share of ETFs in the whole market was 205 trillion, an increase of more than 40% compared with the beginning of the year, of which the share of equity ETFs increased by more than 50%, and more than 500 billion funds will flow into ETFs in 2023 based on the average transaction price of the range.
The Nasdaq ETF jumped 5809% won the championship.
Overall, in 2023, due to the continuous growth of A-shares, the ETF growth ranking will mainly be dominated by QDII-ETFs, and 7 of the top 10 ETFs in annual gains are ETFs tracking the Nasdaq index.
Among them, a total of 3 ETFs in the whole market have risen by more than 50% for the whole year, including Huaan**'s NASDAQ ETF (159632), GF**'s Nasdaq ETF (159941), and Cathay's**'s Nasdaq ETF (513100), with an increase of .33% and 5181%。
In addition to QDII-ETFs, among the top 10 ETFs with annual gains, there are 3 ETFs that track the animation and game index that have risen by more than 30%, namely game and animation ETFs (516770), game ETFs (159869), and game ETFs (516010). It was followed by China-Korea Semiconductor ETF (513310) and Nikkei ETF (513520), all of which rose by more than 25%.
But in fact, **only a few, the weakness of the market** has caused ETFs to have a large area of losses in 2023.
According to wind statistics, there are 644 ETFs in the whole market that will close negative in 2023, of which many tourism ETFs, photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, and real estate ETFs will all fall by more than 30% annually. In addition, due to the poor performance of Hong Kong stocks throughout the year, many ETFs tracking Hong Kong stocks in medicine and the Internet also fell first, generally by more than 20%.
More than 500 billion funds flowed into ETFs**.
It is worth noting that although the market and money-making effect are not good, the "more you fall, the more you buy" and the company's layout form a joint force, which jointly promotes the explosive growth of the ETF market.
Wind data shows that as of December 29, the number of ETFs in the whole market increased to 891, with a total share of 205 trillion yuan, breaking through the 2 trillion yuan mark, compared with 144 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 40%, of which equity ETFs increased from 89757.7 billion copies, up to 137 trillion copies, an increase of more than 50%.
Based on the average trading price of the range, the net subscription amount of equity ETFs reached 53647.8 billion yuan, which means that more than 500 billion yuan of funds will flow into ETFs in 2023**.
As for the reasons for the large-scale development of equity ETFs this year, Xu Meng, executive general manager and manager of ChinaAMC's ** quantitative investment department, said that one of the most important reasons is that the excess return of active equity ** is relatively poor, and the effectiveness of the market or the difficulty of beating the index is increasing. By comparing the mainstream popular tracks and indices in the market, Xu Meng pointed out that in the past one or two years, the average return of most active** products has continued to underperform index products.
Specifically, there are 12 ETFs in the whole market with annual net inflows of more than 10 billion yuan, mainly broad-based ETFs, including CSI 300 ETF (510300), Kechuang 50 ETF (588000), CSI 300 ETF E Fund (510310), SSE 50 ETF (510050) and other products, of which CSI 300 ETF (510300) has an annual net inflow of about 68 billion yuan. In August 2023, it will exceed 100 billion yuan, becoming the first equity ETF in the whole market with a scale of more than 100 billion yuan.
The new market has also been stolen by ETFs. Among them, the competition of broad-based index ETFs such as the Science and Technology Innovation 100, CSI 2000 and SZSE 50 has attracted a number of leading ** companies to compete on the same stage, and sales are still hot during the freezing point of issuance, and the initial offering scale of ChinaAMC SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 100 ETF has reached 389.5 billion yuan, Bosera SSE Science and Technology Innovation Board 100 ETF, E Fund SZSE 50 ETF, Fuguo SZSE 50 ETF and other initial offerings exceeded 2 billion yuan.
However, it should be pointed out that due to the continuous market **, the ETF has been stagnant in the influx of funds and shares** at the same time. As of December 29, the size of the market-wide ETF was 205 trillion yuan, which has not yet broken through the scale high in early September, and the aforementioned 12 ETFs with more net inflows will also generally have negative returns in 2023, showing the characteristics of "buying more and more" in 2023.
How to configure ETFs in 2024?
The explosive growth of the ETF market and the successive launch of innovative products are providing more diversified options for capital allocation. Looking ahead to 2024, how should investors who intend to use indexed investment tools to deploy ETFs?
Liang Xing, assistant to the general manager of Cathay Pacific and director of the quantitative investment department, suggested that investors can pay attention to two main lines: one is technological improvement or technology-driven artificial intelligence, including computing power, algorithms, and data, which correspond to the industry is chips, communications, software, and games (applications). The other is domestic substitution, including military industry, chips, industrial machine tools, robots, etc.
In this direction, we can consider a wide base in the technology field such as the Science and Technology Innovation Board 100 ETF, and in the bottom area of the market, you can lay out this kind of varieties with smaller market value, higher growth and greater flexibilityYou can also consider subdivided industry ETFs, such as chip ETFs and semiconductor equipment ETFs, among which semiconductor equipment materials are more scarce, so the valuation premium given by the market will be relatively higher. Liang Xing said.
Looking forward to the investment opportunities and ETF allocation strategies in 2024, Xu Meng said that there are three main aspects:
First, we are more optimistic about the Hong Kong market and the Hang Seng TECH Index. The Hong Kong market is dominated by institutional investors and is relatively affected by overseas liquidity, and may be more resilient in the context of easing overseas liquidity and profit reversal, especially in the technology sector of Hong Kong stocks. Among them, the Hang Seng Technology Index is the flagship technology index of Hong Kong stocks, focusing on companies in the new economy sector of Greater China listed on Hong Kong stocks.
Second, we are optimistic about the CSI Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship 50 Index, which selects 50 emerging industries with large market capitalization from the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market, and the top three weighted industries power equipment and new energy, electronics, and medicine account for more than 80% of the total. The index has the two characteristics of "technology" and "leading", which is more in line with the characteristics of core assets of the growth style, and is one of the indexes with the highest content of active heavy stocks.
Third, we are optimistic about the CNI Semiconductor Chip Index, which reflects the market performance of listed companies related to the chip industry in the A** field, covering the entire industrial chain of chip materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing. Chips are at the top of the entire electronic information industry chain and are widely used in end markets such as PCs, mobile phones and tablets, consumer electronics, industry and automobiles. The chip industry is strongly supported by national policies, and the process of domestic substitution has helped improve the prosperity of semiconductors, and the application scenarios of scientific and technological innovation will have a huge demand for the chip industry.
Editor-in-charge: Yang Yucheng.
Proofreading: Liao Shengchao.