Project Sword
International relations are only naked interests, former allies can turn their faces, and former enemies can also drink and talk. According to a report by the Observer Network on December 24, Russia's **Putin and Azerbaijan** Aliyev held **talks**, and Putin "warmly congratulated" Aliyev ** on his happy birthday, wished him "good health, happiness and smoothness, and conveyed sincere greetings to his family". Putin also noted that Russia and Argentina have achieved a "high level of strategic partnership and allianceship," and the leaders of the two countries agreed to "continue personal contacts."
In stark contrast to the fierce fight between Russia and Argentina, Russia and its former ally Armenia have openly torn their faces. According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on December 20, Armenia "baselessly" accused Russia of violating the inter-state agreement in the field of communications and suspending the broadcasting license of Russian satellite radio stations in Asia. In this regard, the Russian ambassador to Armenia said: "We regret very much" that this measure by the Asian side has undermined the traditional "mutually beneficial and mutually respectful alliance relations" between Russia and Asia and is a concession to the anti-Russian forces.
As everyone knows, Armenia is Russia's "traditional ally" and a member of the Russian-led "CSTO," another "strategic fulcrum" of Moscow in the Middle East, in addition to Syria, and a "barrier" of the Croatian Palace in the South Caucasus. And Armenia and Azerbaijan are "mortal enemies", in order to fight for the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the two sides have broken out many wars, just in September this year, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict ended with Azerbaijan's "final victory", Armenia was forced to "cede land and sue for peace", in front of the world, staged an "extremely humiliating" scene.
In this case, why is Russia at odds with its "allies" and at the same time with the old enemies of its "allies"?The reasons are manifold:
First of all, Russia has a request for Turkey. Russia's important shipping lane, the Black Sea straits, is in the hands of Turkey, and Putin's Syrian strategy also needs Turkey's cooperation, so when Turkey-supported Azerbaijan wants to retake Nagorno-Karabakh, Putin cannot "fully support" Armenia, because this means that Russia and Turkey have moved from cooperation to "confrontation", which the Kremlin does not want to see. In the last Nagorno-Karabakh war this year, Putin even gave Azerbaijan the "green light" to send troops, recognizing that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan and helping Azerbaijan to "make a forced landing" of the defenders in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Secondly, Armenia also began the process of "de-Russification" because Russia could not protect itself. For example, Argentine Prime Minister Pashinyan said that the strategy of the Asian side to lean "one-sidedly" towards Russia is wrong, and that Russia is "not enough to protect the security of Armenia".Armenia also humiliated Putin and sought to join the International Criminal Court (ICC), which is wanted around the world after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ban on Russia in Armenia this time is also an important measure of "de-Russification".
It is clear that the Kremlin believes that "maintaining relations with Turkey" is far more important than "protecting Armenia", and Armenia believes that Russia has discarded and sacrificed itself for its own interests. Therefore, at present, Russia and Asia have lost their "common interests", and the so-called friends are also an "illusory concept", and they can't even talk about friends, so what kind of alliance can they expect?
In fact, just after the end of the Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenia said that it might withdraw from the Russian-led CSTO. In this regard, Lavrov said, whatever you want. In the course of this year's Nagorno-Karabakh war, Armenia also held military exercises with the United States despite Russia's warningsAfter humiliating Putin and seeking to join the ICC, which received verbal support from the United States, Washington warned Azerbaijan that "no longer use force against the Nagorno-Karabakh region." Later, Armenia threatened to break away from the "CSTO" and ban the Russian media, but in fact they were all "voters" to the United States; once the time is ripe and the United States and Asia reach a settlement, Armenia will throw itself into the arms of the United States, and then it will expel the Russian army and welcome the US military.
So, what should Russia do?As mentioned earlier, Armenia's geopolitical position is still relatively important, it is one of Russia's "strategic fulcrums" in the Middle East, a "barrier" in the South Caucasus, and now Armenia is going to fall to the United States, what should Putin do?Naturally, it is to look for a replacement, and this replacement, it is Azerbaijan. Winning over Azerbaijan can not only dig into Turkey's corner and control the spread of its influence in the South Caucasus, but also hedge against the negative impact of Armenia's future tilt towards the United States and Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, and use Azerbaijan to counterbalance Armenia.
This is the game of great powers: we must look at the overall situation, for the sake of the big interests, decisively give up small interests, although Armenia is an ally, but the relationship between Turkey and Russia is more important, so sit back and watch Armenia being hanged, the Kremlin has always "seen death and will not be saved";It is necessary to actively strive for new allies, although Azerbaijan once killed the deputy commander of the Russian army in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and afterwards said lightly "I'm sorry, I killed the wrong one", but Putin did not pursue it at all in order to win Azerbaijan;Abandon the old love, embrace the new love, do not have any psychological burden, and everything is aimed at maximizing the interests of your own country.