This article is the 696th original article published by Xijing Research Institute and the 655th original article by Dr. Zhao Jian.
The economic work conference talks about "the biggest politics" and solves economic problems by stressing politics, which may be the first time in the previous economic work conference. If you don't understand this, it will be difficult to understand the deep meaning of this year's economic work conference, and it will be difficult to grasp the economic governance concept of the new decision-maker.
There are many more differences, which deserve the attention of our economic research work. For example, we used to hear that "development is the last word", and the meeting suggested it"High-quality development is the last word".。There is also the construction of new words such as high-level safety, high-level scientific and technological self-reliance, and new quality productivity. Everyone knows the importance of China's governance style and discourse system. This means that the top has a new understanding of the relationship between the superstructure and the economic base, and who decides who may need to be looked at dialectically.
How to define "high quality", the interpretation is at the top. However, we can understand a general idea from the various battles after the term "high-quality development" was proposed. Risk prevention, poverty alleviation, anti-corruption, environmental protection, education and training, platform governance, three red lines, etc. Development should not only be reflected in speed and scale, but also in norms, values and purpose. After all, the development model of high energy consumption and high speed is difficult to maintain.
Theoretically, "high quality" is similar to "high quality" in the economic growth modelTotal factor productivityIt is rich in connotation and all-encompassing, and it is a kind of economic ethics. High-level opening up, high-level security, high-level scientific and technological independence, and so on, have all added this qualifier. This means that the development concept and model of the new era have undergone major changes from before, and China has developed to the current stageWe must give higher meaning, connotation, and standards to terms such as development, reform, and opening up.
This also reminds once again that in the past, those simple and popular "development is the last word", "holding a mouse is a good cat", "taking economic construction as the center", "crossing the river by feeling the stones", "let some people get rich first", flooded at every turn, and the idea of comprehensive stimulation gave way to high-quality development. In the face of the challenge of the economic downturn, the past kind of early reaction and overreaction toGive way to not forgetting the original intention and maintaining strategic focus
In this process of transformation, there emergedExpectations become weakerproblems. The main reason is probably that the definition of "high speed" is relatively simple, and it can be clearly measured and can form a stable expectation. However, the word "high quality" has a rich and complex meaning, and it is flexible and malleable, depending on the ideas, ideas and will of the high-level, and it is difficult to implement it into statistical indicators and legal provisions, so it is difficult to form stable expectations.
For example, many people hear that the high-quality development of real estate is still at the stage of "breaking" the three red lines. In fact, now that the relationship between supply and demand has changed, the high-quality development of real estate should be understood from the perspective of "establishment". Now the question is,What is broken is already clear, and what needs to be further explored.
Politics that is higher than high-quality development is "Chinese-style modernization". The meeting clearly and forcefully proposed:"Chinese modernization must be regarded as the biggest politics."
Adding "Chinese style" in front of modernization is like adding "high quality" in front of development. Modernization is the common theme of human civilization, and the right to interpret in the past is "Western-centrism". With the addition of "Chinese style", the power of interpretation can be redistributed, breaking the single discourse system. The right to interpret is not important, but whether it can make people feel safe and happy. This is the same regardless of the situation.
Why is Chinese-style modernization the biggest politics?Because it is the new leader's new concept and theoretical contribution to the country. In the past, we used to talk about the "four modernizations", which lacked something unique to China. Chinese modernization is a new development concept and development path. In the future, China's development will not only follow a different path from the past, but also take a different path from other countries.
The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) put forward "Chinese-style modernization" for the first time, and many new difficulties and challenges emerged in the first year, and the meeting also conducted objective analysis and judgment, including overcapacity, weak expectations, more risks, poor internal circulation, and a complex and severe external environment. In the face of these unprecedented challenges and difficulties,It is necessary to grasp and make good use of the political magic weapon of Chinese-style modernization, and sing the "Theory of China's Light". Only by facing the darkness can the true light be sung. The reason why this session has been able to face these challenges head-on is because of confidence and confidence.
The main reason why this meeting and this leadership emphasize "high quality", "high level" and "Chinese style" is that as I have systematically discussed before, China's economy has entered a "post-development era and risk-based society" that is different from traditional developing economies and does not have the conditions of developed economies (see "Zhao Jian: A Rational Understanding of China's Post-Development Era and Risky Society"). At this stage, the most conspicuous characteristic and law is that it shows the complexity and fragility unique to the modern economy, and all kinds of contradictions and problems are intertwined, and it cannot be solved by simply relying on economic construction as the center in the past and by letting some people get rich first and "making money" and mobilizing the enthusiasm of key elements.
The complexity and fragility of reality require that in terms of economic governance, we must be more cautious and walk on thin ice, and we can neither simply and crudely do all of it, nor can we "want and want" everything. As mentioned at this meeting, to".Deepen the regularity of doing a good job in economic work in the new eraIt is necessary to "highlight the key points and grasp the key points" and "grasp the main contradictions." It shows that in the formulation and implementation of current policies, it is all the more necessary to respect the law, respect science, be cautious, and "govern a big country like cooking a small fresh".
As far as this year and next year are concerned, the main contradiction is still to correctly handle the contradictions and unity relations between "stability" and "progress" and "breakdown" and "establishment." In the past, various battles were mainly "broken", which were broken on a large scale before they were fully established. Too much emphasis is placed on "stability", and there is progress in stability, and "progress" is insufficient. Too much emphasis has been placed on the contradiction and antagonism between stability and progress, and on breaking and standing, and the connection between the two has been neglected. At present, progress, that is, maintaining a certain rate of development, can absorb debts and unemployment, and only then can we be truly stable. Between breaking and standing, it is not a contradictory relationship that does not break or stand, and if the old kinetic energy is broken, not only will it not let the new kinetic energy stand up, but it will also seriously affect the operation of the new kinetic energy because of the big risk.
"Promote stability with progress, first establish and then break".The previous Politburo meeting emphasized it again, and this economic work conference emphasized it again, so that we can roughly know the overall tone of next year's economic policy. In the post-development era, China is facing a "new triangle problem", and it is difficult to achieve development, reform, and stability at the same time. In the past few years, it has mainly been about adjusting the structure and preventing risks, which has affected development to a certain extent. In the new year and in the next few years, it is necessary to grasp the bull's nose of development, use development to solve problems in development, and return to "taking economic construction as the center."
The meeting also took note"Non-economic policies"The impact on economic operations, such as some relatively strict industrial policies and policies that violate the spirit of the rule of law, will hurt economic and social expectations far more than economic policies. The meeting made it clear that "non-economic policies should be included in the assessment of macroeconomic policy orientation", which means that various policies will be more cautious in the future, so as not to affect the stability of the economy and financial markets.
In terms of specific work arrangements, the meeting mentioned eight aspects of work arrangements, which can be described as comprehensive and all-encompassing. In such a textual system, what is mentioned is important, but what is not mentioned is even more important. At least, there was no mention of the capital market, how to look at it in the current situation, what to do, the meeting did not give an answer. There is no further mention of "housing not speculation". Perhaps for stocks and houses that are related to the people's money bags, no news is good news. The balance sheet repair cycle is long, 30 years in Japan and 15 years in the United States. We must make long-term preparations for high-quality development and transformation.
In such a situation, we should pay more attention to politics. The biggest politics isChinese-style modernization, Chinese modernization againPeople-centered。At present, the people's greatest wish is to boost the economy, solve the problems of unemployment, debt, contraction, and other aggregate problems through development, and fundamentally solve the problems of weak expectations, lack of confidence, and structural distortion through a modern governance system that is based on the rule of law, marketization, openness, fairness, and transparency. Therefore, to sum up, the biggest politics is to take the people as the center and boost the economy. This truth is both simple and not simple.