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The ** Politburo meeting held on December 8 proposed that "next year, we must adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking", that is, to stabilize growth and expectations with the development trend of "progress", and at the same time promote reform and structural adjustment, so as to achieve sustained and stable economic development. A deep understanding of the important signal released by this latest statement is conducive to better understanding and grasping the new trend of economic work next year.
Seeking progress while maintaining stability, it is emphasized that it is necessary to maintain strategic focus and seek progress on the premise of maintaining overall stability.
"Stability" and "progress" complement each other and are dialectically unified. If you are unstable, you can't advance, and if you don't advance, it's hard to be stable. From a macroeconomic perspective, the core is to stabilize growth, prevent risks, and guard the bottom line, mainly through the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and continue to promote the economy to achieve qualitative and effective improvement and reasonable quantitative growth. From the perspective of social psychology, the key is to boost confidence, mainly through the adoption of more proactive and consistent macro policies, with development methods to solve problems, supplemented by economic propaganda and guidance, to further stabilize social expectations. It is necessary to put "stability" in a more prominent position, ensure that there are no major fluctuations in growth, employment, and prices, and ensure that systemic risks do not occur in the financial sector.
In recent years, the first economic work conference has emphasized that economic work should seek progress while maintaining stability, and it is clear that it is necessary to adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability. Under the guidance of this consistent general tone, China has given full play to the advantages of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, the demand advantage of the super-large-scale market, the supply advantage of a complete industrial system, the power advantage brought about by the continuous deepening of reform and opening up, and the advantages of having a large macroeconomic regulation and control policy space, and the economy has developed rapidly and steadily. China has become the world's largest growth engine, injecting stability into world development.
Since the beginning of this year, China's economy has rebounded, important progress has been made in the construction of a modern industrial system, new breakthroughs have been made in scientific and technological innovation, reform and opening up have been promoted in depth, the foundation for safe development has been consolidated and consolidated, people's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, and solid steps have been taken to build a modern socialist country in an all-round way. From the perspective of international indicators used to measure economic stability, such as stable economic growth, basic price stability and full employment, in the first three quarters, China's GDP increased by 5% year-on-year2%, and it is expected to successfully achieve the economic growth target of 5% for the whole year. Based on the strong vitality, resilience and momentum of China's economy, a number of international organizations and international business institutions have raised their growth forecasts, casting a "vote of confidence" in China's economy. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the International Monetary Organization, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Citibank, UBS, and Deutsche Bank have each upgraded China's economic growth this year** to. 2%, the growth rate is leading among the world's major economies. The employment situation has generally improved, and the surveyed urban unemployment rate in October was 5%, down 06 percentage points. The price level was basically stable, and the national consumer consumption index (CPI) in the first 11 months was 03%, in contrast to the high inflation in major economies.
To promote stability, "stability" creates a time window and material basis for "progress", and "progress" creates conditions for "stability".
Only by promoting stability through progress and achieving "stability" through "progress" in economic structure, development quality, and major reforms, can the road of high-quality development be stable and far-reaching. In 2024, China will still face a complex and severe international environment and arduous tasks of domestic reform, development and stability. From an international point of view, external challenges may continue unabated, major economies are difficult to curb high inflation, and global economic growth is sluggish, which may have a certain impact on China's exports. At the same time, global geopolitical conflicts and protection continue to intensify, and the United States' sanctions on China in the field of science and technology may hinder the development of some domestic industries. From a domestic point of view, the huge economic aggregate base objectively determines that China's economic growth will inevitably shift from high-speed to medium-high speed. At the same time, China is undergoing a transformation of its economic growth model, and how to tap and release emerging drivers while stabilizing the main traditional drivers is facing huge challenges.
Against this background, it is of great practical significance to promote stability through progress. "Progress" means to grasp development, actively forge ahead on a stable basis, cultivate and expand new economic growth poles, improve core competitiveness and economic efficiency, firmly grasp the initiative of development, and ensure that the transformation of economic development mode and innovation-driven development achieve new results. Development is the greatest security and the foundation and key to solving all problems in our country. Without a certain rate of economic growth, there will be not enough room for policy manoeuvre, and there will be no talk of structural reforms. Next year's economic work needs to grasp the important principles of "three co-ordination", that is, to coordinate the expansion of domestic demand and deepen the supply-side structural reform, to coordinate the new urbanization and comprehensive rural revitalization, and to coordinate high-quality development and high-level security, so as to drive incremental upgrading with high growth, support the supply side and technology side with the demand side, and realize the problem solving in development and transformation in growth.
On how to "promote stability through progress", the meeting carried out scientific strategic planning, especially proposed that "efforts should be made to expand domestic demand and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other." Compared with the statement in 2022 that "we should focus on expanding domestic demand and give full play to the basic role of consumption and the key role of investment", the understanding of the role of investment has been further strengthened, and the relationship between investment and consumption has been clarified. Investment and consumption are not an antagonistic relationship, but can provide the basis and direction for effective investment and long-term economic growthInvestment, on the other hand, provides supply for effective demand, which in turn enables economic growth to support income and consumption. Marx pointed out in Capital that production and consumption have a direct identity, production is consumption, consumption is production, production creates and determines consumption, and production produces consumption. Production creates not only consumer goods, but also consumers. From the point of view of the process of social reproduction, production is the real active factor, the dominant factor. Consumption, as the goal of production, is an intrinsic factor in the system of social reproduction. Consumption has a huge counter-effect on production, "consumption produces production", and consumption is the "intrinsic motivation of the concept" of production. Judging from the domestic economic situation this year, the growth of service consumption is relatively fast, and the growth of commodity consumption is slowHigh-tech investment grew rapidly, while investment in infrastructure and real estate development grew slowlyInvestment in state-owned enterprises grew rapidly, while private investment grew slowly. Next year, it is necessary to strengthen the expansion of demand driven by investment and supply innovation, and at the same time establish the scope of effective investment and effective supply with effective demand. In view of the shortage of structural investment, it is necessary to study in depth how to better integrate investment projects with regional and industrial development strategies, further increase the intensity of investment in key areas and industries, and especially stimulate nongovernmental investment.
Establishing first and then breaking down is an important work strategy and method for doing a good job in next year's economic work.
In promoting economic work, we must adhere to the correct approach, pay attention to strategic methods, strengthen macro thinking and top-level design, improve the art of work and management level, and give full play to the role of effective market and promising work with more powerful measures and more scientific methods, and do a solid and steady job in various tasks.
Grasping well the dialectical relationship between "establishment" and "breaking" is the key to doing a good job in next year's economic work. It is necessary to grasp the order of "establishment" and "breaking" well, otherwise it will affect the overall situation of economic development. Establish first and then break, taking into account both long-term and short-term, aiming to avoid "only breaking but not standing" and "breaking before standing". Before "breaking", you need to think about how to "stand". When it comes to economic work, what should we "establish" and what should we "break"?In the long run, the old economic development mode and the industries in the recession stage should be broken, but in the process of "breaking", we should pay attention to the rhythm of grasping, and first "stand" the new economic pulling capacity led by scientific and technological innovation. The meeting mentioned science and technology-related content, emphasizing "promoting high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance", and "leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, and improving the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain", which fully demonstrated that scientific and technological innovation has a key role that cannot be ignored in the process of economic operation.
The underlying logic of "establishing first and then breaking" is to attach importance to risks, which means that we should pay more attention to risk prevention in the future, and the priority of establishing new mechanisms and new models should be significantly increased to avoid the phenomenon of "one size fits all". To achieve the goal of "establishing first and then breaking down," it is necessary to make prudent decisions and grasp the timing, degree, and effectiveness of adjusting policies and promoting reforms. It is necessary to do "subtraction" with one hand and resolutely curb the blind development of high-energy-consumption, high-emission and low-level projectsWe will do "addition" single-handedly, accelerate the cultivation of strategic emerging industries, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and accelerate the formation of new quality productivity. This party should be reflected in all aspects of next year's economic work, such as accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy, consolidating and expanding the development advantages of new energy vehicles, accelerating the construction of charging piles, energy storage and other facilities and supporting power grid transformation, vigorously developing general artificial intelligence, creating an innovative ecology, preventing and resolving risks, and so on.
In 2023, looking at the "shape" and "potential" of China's economy, the long-term "potential" of "shape" and "momentum" is good, and the long-term "potential" is a strong support for "shape" stability. 2024 is a critical period for China's industrial transformation and upgrading and sustained economic improvement. We firmly believe that China is fully qualified and capable of overcoming difficulties and challenges, and will give full play to its own advantages, grow up in the baptism of wind and rain, grow stronger in the midst of trials and tribulations, and promote sustained and healthy economic development.
Author: Wu Sa (Deputy Director, Institute of Economics, China Academy of Macroeconomics), *Study Xi Times].
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