China's real estate market has set off waves of waves, and when everyone is looking forward to it, the forward-looking ** of Vanke founder Wang Shi has once again attracted attention. As early as the 2018 Vanke Annual Meeting, Wang Shi made bold remarks and put forward the slogan of "live, live long, and live well". At that time, the real estate market was in the limelight, but it was not aware of the risks involved. Today, this bold statement has become the focus of attention in the industry.
In the past two or three years, the sales of real estate companies have plummeted, and more than 60% of the top 50 real estate companies are mired in debt crisis. However, in the midst of this wave of crisis, there is one company that still stands proudly, and that is Vanke. Even though Vanke's bonds fluctuated abnormally some time ago, and the major shareholders held a special press conference to clarify the rumors, industry experts all agreed that if even Vanke is unsustainable, the real estate industry will face an irreparable collapse. Coincidentally, national financial institutions have asked to meet the financing needs of various real estate enterprises, and commercial head offices such as Zheshang Bank, China Construction Bank, and Bank of Communications have successively convened discussions with uninsured real estate enterprises, and Vanke has become the object of support from major banks.
Wang Shi once said: "If you are not excellent, how can commercial banks take the initiative to support you?"This view has been fully confirmed in the current situation. Even though he no longer personally leads Vanke, as chairman emeritus, he still cares about real estate. He once again made a ** on the future trend of real estate, and industry insiders generally believe that this may be another accurate judgment.
In his statement, Wang Shi repeatedly compared with developed countries in the United States and Japan, pointing out that the real estate adjustment period takes 3-5 years, and real estate companies need to maintain sufficient cash flow at all times to avoid blind expansion. At the same time, the executives at the meeting mentioned that compared with the bad debt rate when the real estate bubble in the United States and Japan burst, the bad debt rate of China's real estate is only 16%, indicating that although China's real estate needs time to adjust, it may not be as long as other countries.
Wang Shi concluded by saying that China is not a market economy, and the impact of policies on real estate is crucial. At present, policy adjustments are already underway, and he remains optimistic about the future of real estate. This sense of distress and forward-looking perspective reflects his deep insight into the industry.
The central bank's latest statement is also in line with Wang Shi's view. Pan Xing said that China's real estate has entered a period of transition, the demand for new houses has declined, the market differentiation has intensified, and real estate is looking for a new balance. He stressed the need to pay attention to the spillover effect of the real estate market in the short term, especially the debt boom of real estate companies. However, he also said that a prudent lending policy could contain spillover risks.
In addition, Pan Hang quoted the S&P report as predicting that the real estate market has bottomed out, and market sentiment and housing prices are beginning to normalize. He expressed optimism about the future of the real estate market, based on the continued development of urbanization. This statement also needs to be specifically stated that the bottom of the real estate market is not the same as the normal operation of real estate companies, some real estate companies may withdraw from the market, and some recovery will take time, as Wang Shi said 3-5 years.
However, real estate companies will experience a painful period in the recovery process, which may have a certain inhibiting effect on the recovery of real estate. The state has realized this, and major banks have been convening meetings with whitelisted real estate companies to discuss strategies to overcome the difficulties together, which is believed to minimize the adjustment period.
Finally, the trend of housing prices that we are concerned about, given that it takes time for all factors to run in and play a role, no one can accurately predict it. However, it is worth expecting that more policies will be introduced that will really benefit home buyers. For example, Nanjing has increased the amount of provident fund loans for second homes, and policies such as pilot sales of existing homes and increasing home ownership rates are expected to reduce the burden on home buyers.
Overall, during the current bottom operation of the real estate market, Wang Shi's ** and the central bank's statement have formed a consistent resonance. The real estate market is undergoing adjustment, and the introduction of policies will help the market gradually stabilize. In this process, home buyers may usher in more tangible policies that benefit the people, creating more luck for home buyers. Let's look forward to witnessing the vigorous development of China's real estate industry in the future!