Wang Shi believes that everyone is no stranger, the founder of Vanke, is also the chairman of the honorary association, his understanding of real estate is still very deep and in place, and his recent words are also a shock to many people's hearts, whether it is Lian Po old ignorant or a wise man who tells the truth, I believe everyone will have their own judgment next.
According to a report by Fortune Chinese, on November 28, Wang Shi said at the Fortune Global Forum that what happened in Japan 30 years ago is happening in China. He also added that China's real estate problems have just begun, and there will be thunderstorms and debt defaults in the adjustment, but we have already seen changes at the policy level. If the adjustment is done well, and learning from Japan's experience, he believes that it can be adjusted in 3-5 years. But don't get your hopes up and say that if the policy is right, it will be fine next year or the year after.
After the bursting of Japan's economic bubble, many people felt that Japan was no longer worth learning Xi, but Vanke was stepping up to learn Xi Japan, and in the following 20 years, it continued to send engineers or managers to Japan to learn Xi. Because among the non-religious civilizations, the first country to achieve modernization was Japan. Japan has already completed industrialization, but we have not yet done it, and we must learn from the road that Japan has traveled and the lessons of Japan.
Many friends may not know what has happened in Japan in the past 30 years, let's briefly say that since the Plaza Accord in 1985, the yen has appreciated sharply, and the purchasing power and consumption desire of the people have increased greatly. At that time, the economic policy was also quite radical, constantly releasing water and lowering interest rates, hot money could not be idle, everyone began to buy **, buy real estate, and the ** of this time period can not be simply said**, but skyrocketed. In 1991, housing prices in Japan reached an all-time high, and the price in core areas such as Japan's first-tier cities rose to 6$20,000 square meters. The Japanese people who speculate on real estate firmly believe that real estate will always appreciate, everyone is a millionaire, under this self-confidence psychology, consumption is strong, and greatly promotes the development of the Japanese economy, at this time, the entire Japanese society, is permeated with a kind of "will not speculate is stupid" impetuous atmosphere.
But the good times did not last long, after 1990, the international environment changed, the dollar raised interest rates again, and Japan's economic growth was also weak. The monetary system was tightened and various policies were introduced to restrict land transactions, so it led to the closure of a large number of factories and the unemployment of many young people.
Let's take a look at the important nodes of the four rounds of price cuts in Japan, the first wave of price reductions is that Japanese real estate companies can't hold on, some large real estate developers began to thunder, the early land is too expensive, but now it can't be sold, so real estate companies in order to return funds to save their lives, new houses began to reduce prices. The second-hand housing market is too expensive because the purchase price of the original owners is too high, and they don't want to lose money to reduce the price, resulting in the second-hand housing market falling into a situation where there is no market
The second round of price reductions was due to the poor economic situation in Japan at that time, many people fell into difficulties in life, could not afford to pay the monthly payment, and a large number of houses were reduced to foreclosure houses. The owner who could not repay the monthly payment had to abandon the house and cut off the payment, and the house was auctioned by the bank. In order to recoup the funds, the bank lowered the price of the auction, which further aggravated the house price**;
The third round of price reduction is the real second-hand individual owners, because the second-hand owners finally can't stand it, have to sell at a lower price, which drives the original investors to see the market prospect is not good, even if they lose money and cut the meat to clear the warehouse, triggering the third wave of selling, housing prices ** into a vicious circle;
The fourth round of price reductions is that Japan began to levy property tax in 1992, which directly stabbed the bayonet in housing prices, because the economic situation is not good, and the excess houses need to pay a lot of property fees and property taxes every year, which is completely called negative equity, which has caused people to sell the excess real estate at any cost.
Back to our own property market, let's see which step we belong to now, or belong to the first round of price reduction stage, at present, everyone sees the thunderstorm of real estate companies, real estate companies in order to save their lives in the continuous price reduction**, but many places do not allow public price reduction, especially in the first and second tier cities, as soon as there is a big price reduction, immediately call to stop or suspend the online signing, but this trend is also irreversible, do not let the price reduction of the final result of selling houses is that the real estate companies lie down to bankruptcy or more unfinished;In terms of individual owners, a large number of second-hand houses are now in the stage of having a price and no market, and I believe that many people want to sell their houses, but no one comes to see the house, and no one is out of the house, which has also led to the gradual formation of a dammed lake in the second-hand inventory, because the second-hand houses that can be sold now are the stock houses in the hands of state-owned assets. Individual owners have not yet realized the importance of price reduction, that is, they do not want to lose money to reduce prices, because the holding cost is not high, so they still have the hope of picking up the price increase.
And at this stage, we have taken the initiative to puncture the bubble of housing prices, just like the decline in various places in recent years, and the arrival of the prepayment tide, which has added a safer weight to our soft landing. And now what are the various policies for, on the one hand, it is to take the initiative to let state-owned assets sell their houses, including state-owned enterprises, urban investment houses and stock second-hand houses, on the other hand, it is to attract the maintenance of land prices and extend the time for smooth transition, because residents do not buy houses, real estate companies will not auction land, and there will be no income in the local area, this is a circular process, and it can also be seen from the income of land auctions, from the peak of 87 trillion, to 3 in January-October of this year49 trillion, this gap also makes many places particularly uncomfortable, but now they can't immediately receive real estate tax, so they will sell business rights in various places, increase administrative fines and other operations, which is a helpless move for the local government, and it is difficult for a clever woman to cook without rice.
And what Wang Shi said, if we adjust properly, we can adjust it in 3-5 years. Because the craziest heyday of Japanese housing prices was in 1990, and the real estate tax was introduced in 1992, our highest point in this round was in the middle of 2021, and now it has actually been two and a half years, our resilience is still stronger, at least the real estate tax will definitely not come out this year, because we have already rescued the market at the peak, and now we are constantly holding up the magnitude of the decline, and then continue to reduce everyone's leverage.
And employment is the real bottom line of the property market, because for the ordinary wage earners, the ** of housing prices is actually not the most terrible, the most terrible thing is to empty six wallets and carry huge leverage, but find that their company is about to close down or cut wages or even lay off employees, in this context, is the last straw that crushes every ordinary owner. Therefore, now I don't see a large-scale supply cut, because the large group of wage earners has not been unemployed in a large area, so in some places, even if the housing price is 20% or even 30%, many people are silently enduring it, taking out more wages to repay the loan, and the decline in the interest rate of the stock housing is also allowing this group of people to breathe a few hundred yuan a month.
Therefore, in the future, we should pay attention to several aspects: first, if you need to buy a house very much, try to increase leverage as little as possible, and how much you can afford to buy a house;Second, Xi with state-owned assets, surpass ordinary house sellers in advance, and dare to break away from the houses in general cities and regions, instead of taking the highest peak ** to compare their own expectations, and leave the market when it is time to leave;
Third, take stock of your cash flow, whether there is any other income in addition to salary, if not, reduce leverage as soon as possible, reduce consumption, and apply for early repayment with the bank if you get to more than 50,000 yuan, the general bank has the opportunity to repay the loan in advance twice a year, and then keep at least 18 months of monthly payments in hand, even if the fourth round of price reduction is coming, you will not become the one who hangs up immediately, and you can be the winner if you get through.