Since the beginning of the African swine fever epidemic in 2019, the price increase expectation brought by the production capacity has attracted a number of large and small capital parties to enter the pig breeding industry.
Pig prices have been losing money for a whole year this year, becoming the first annual loss year in history. More and more people are beginning to reflect on why a good pig breeding industry will become what it is now, everyone knows that all this is the fault of capital, but when judging the future situation, they often habitually stand in inertial thinking to consider this problem, and will not take the initiative to think about the next trend of capital pig raising.
Today I want to use an article to explain to you clearly, capital to destroy an industry, a total of several steps, and the current step on which step, how the next situation will develop, I believe that after reading my article, you will know how the industry should operate in the future.
First of all, the premise is that there must be a timing, which can also be said to be an outlet, with which it has the energy to make pigs fly, and this tuyere appeared in 2018 In this period of 2019, the entire industry is rapidly de-capacity, and the natural profit-seeking nature of capital drives it to quickly lay out production capacity, whether it is leasing, cooperation, or acquisition, anyway, don't buy it if you can, don't build it yourself, don't build it yourself, give priority to leasing and cooperation, and if you don't have it (such as sow farms), you have to build it yourself. In that era, feed companies were embarrassed to open their mouths if they sat together and chatted, did not raise some pigs, and did not engage in several farms.
Then it is to use the advantages of capital to rapidly expand production capacity, with the help of piglets provided by its own sow farm, the development of substitute business, or to invest seedlings in their own rental farms, if their own sow farms are insufficient, then ** from the market to buy piglets, 2019 sky-high piglets are caused by capital to rush to buy, take the initiative to increase the price, 1500 will not go out to 1800, anyway, you must buy piglets.
Then it is the use of the pig herd in hand, crazy pressure fence, further push up the price of pigs, and wait until the pig price is on the day to sell, this push and throw, quickly picked up a huge breeding dividend. This happened from the end of 2020 to the first half of 2021, this stage is actually the time difference between the self-farrowing and self-raising model, seizing the self-farrowing and self-raising model from the gilts (whether binary or ternary sows) from vaccination to breeding to the pig market This year, quickly the breeding dividends that should have been obtained by the self-farrowing and self-raising model were extracted in advance, and the main focus was the ruthlessness and ruthlessness of a capital.
Then there is the post-capital era, using the pig herd in hand, and then manipulating the market** , specific to the pig breeding industry, is generally the first half of the consumption downturn, the second half of the consumption is strong, so that there is room for operation, if the ordinary farmers to raise all in the mode of all out, perhaps in the first half of the pig seedlings, the second half of the slaughter, and then the empty field to the first half of the year, capital will not do so, they also have to calculate the depreciation of fixed assets, personnel mobility, management costs and other factors, can not do the empty half of the operation, but can sell small pigs in the first half of the year, the second half of the bar, between this pressure and release, full of heroic colors, reverse harvesting of surplus grain in the hands of self-breeding and self-raising households (there are also many people who don't understand why this link will harvest the breeding dividends of self-breeding and self-raising households, in fact, the reason is very simple, the company's pig volume is large, he has to increase the price as soon as he presses the fence, and he has to sell it if it rises, and lock in the profits in advance), this thing mainly happened from 2021 to 2022.
In the end, it came to the elimination stage of capital, the production capacity has been surplus, and the price of pigs has also fallen, which has to enter the elimination stage of big fish eating small fish, the main thing is to see who can't hold it first, who falls first Other companies will rush to carve up the original market share, many people say, why are they not reducing production capacity?In fact, for the group company, especially the financial statements of listed companies need to be disclosed, the reduction of production capacity will lead to the increase in the cost of breeding, after all, the depreciation of fixed assets is placed there, and the cost of raising this is grafted to other pigs in the raising, the more empty the higher your breeding cost, so the production capacity can not be reduced, must be held up, either eat someone else's seat, or be eaten by others, there is no safe landing so that all the capital market is able to reduce production capacity and successfully pass the pig cycle, in fact, even in the past capital has not had such a large proportion of the industry when it entered the industry, ordinary farmers are also fighting for financial strength, but at that time of the industry, mainly ordinary farmers are eliminating each other, that kind of financial strength and group capital is incomparable, ordinary farmers lose hundreds of thousands of dollars on the general reduction of production capacity, ** will wait until a year of continuous loss to return this bird pig price, now this kind of loss at the beginning of the year to the end of the year of the loss method is not ordinary farmers in the production capacity does not fall, but the group company in the hard drag pig cycle at the end of the production capacity does not reduce capacity.
The end is, Zhengbang fell, the twins took over and continued to do, and then the fourth fell down, the third continued to dry, and it is also possible that the third ate the fourth choked and couldn't swallow and was eaten by the fifth, anyway, in 2024, a reshuffle is inevitable, wash and wash away the ordinary farmers suffered, the city gate fire affected the pond fish, ordinary farmers can not bear it for so long, passively on this train, it is too late to get off, we all know that the price of pigs will rise, but the price increase and can't hold which one comes first? No one knows.
Finally, let's talk about the issue of production capacity, this year everyone has reported that the epidemic situation is serious everywhere, why is the price of pigs still not rising?In fact, to understand this problem, I think it is easy to think about it in a different way of thinking, for example, the official statistics are now 41 million sows, but how many sows do we really need for consumption?Is it possible that 30 million is enough?So what is the extra 11 million sows?Invalid capacity!The epidemic is indeed going to capacity, but it comes and goes, and all that goes is ineffective production capacity, will this part of the production capacity affect the pig price?We don't need to care whether 41 million is really there, and we don't need to care if 30 million is really enough, we just need to know that the epidemic is serious is true, and the pig price loss is also true, it's enough, it is enough to show that the epidemic is going to the production capacity or ineffective production capacity, if the epidemic is not so serious, maybe the pig price will be five yuan to grind the bottom for a year!
But five dollars to grind the bottom of a year, seven dollars to grind the bottom of a year, anyway, the loss of ordinary farmers are the upper limit, five months of loss and eight months of loss is a meaning, the upper limit to the natural exit, in fact, this year is I engaged in the pig breeding industry, the most dangerous year, but also the most difficult year for the entire industry, it is foreseeable next year, we can eat several group companies bankruptcy reorganization melon, but there will be more and more peers around to transform or rent out the pig farm, the rental of the pig farm will also be likely to transform to the substitution model, self-breeding in this capital fight does not have the strength to stand firm, don't keep talking about the cost of breeding, now in the era of fighting capital is not the era of fighting the cost of breeding, to fight the cost of breeding has to wait for the situation to stabilize to fight!
Written in the end, raising pigs is just a means of making a living, carrying hundreds of thousands of millions of debts to float that win, it's not worth it, gambling on the future quality of life of parents and children for three generations to float that win, it can't be done!Raise a pig owes a lifetime of loans, pigs are not crazy, people are crazy, there are group companies there to stir up the situation, even if the price of pigs rises, it will not last long, even if the price rises that breeding dividend will be divided by the production capacity of the group company, the breeding dividend brought by the price increase is not enough to cover the loss, the times have changed, before the pig only monthly loss, quarterly loss, no annual loss, this year came to an annual loss, the first annual loss, next year may appear again annual loss, the production capacity of the group company is there, even if the price rises, is you on the production capacity fast or the group company on the production capacity fast？It's nothing more than the next round of harvesting, and the ones who are injured by sweeping down one round after another must be the farmers at the bottom
It's been five years!Lose more and earn less, the low price period is getting longer and longer, the first period is getting shorter and shorter, the law of the pig cycle before 2018 has long ceased to exist, the practitioners of the pig breeding industry put down the gambling mentality, the price increase will come sooner or later, but the price increase will not be enough to make up for the loss!Because we have been harvested by capital for five years, and we will continue to be harvested in the future, at least for now, it seems that it is a wise choice to go ashore in time, transform and raise, and hug the thighs of capital, rather than being a leek, which will be harvested one by one until it perishes. Giving up the illusion that we can make up for all the losses after a round of price increases, we have seen it very, very clearly in the past five years!
Well, that's all for today, I'm Brother Zhu, and I communicate with you all kinds of information about the pig breeding industry, don't sell veterinary drugs, don't market, and make friends with your breeding peers.