The demand for copper in the fields of photovoltaics, wind power, and new energy vehicles is increasing significantly. According to the International Energy Agency, the world will need about 380,000 tonnes of copper for electric vehicles by 2030, and another 4 million tonnes for solar panel manufacturing. Although there is a short-term surplus of copper, there will be a supply-demand gap in the medium and long term, considering the scarcity of new projects.
The distribution of global copper reserves is relatively concentrated, and according to USGS data, the global copper reserves in 2022 will be 8900 million tons, of which Chile, Australia, and Peru have the largest reserves, accounting for 41% of the total, respectively. From the point of view, Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) are the most important suppliers of copper mines in the world, with copper mine output reaching 10,000 tons in 2022, accounting for % of the global copper ore supply. It is worth noting that Chile is facing the problem of aging mines and declining grades, with annual production peaking at 5.83 million tonnes in 2018 and declining year after yearPeru produced 2.46 million tons of copper in 2019, and then decreased due to factors such as the epidemic and local political situation, and it is also declining year by year, with an output of 2.2 million tons in 2022The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a representative country in Africa, has seen a significant increase in copper supply, gradually growing into one of the most important suppliers, with annual output increasing from 600,000 tons in 2012 to 2.2 million tons in 2022, which is comparable to Peru, an old copper producer.
Energy Capital & Power** listed five potential copper mining projects in Africa, which are expected to inject vitality into the global copper industry, two of which are attributable to Chinese companies. 1. Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: Peak may reach 800,000 tons per yearThe Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine is undoubtedly the "star" mine in recent years, having commenced commercial production in July 2021. According to Zijin Mining's official website, the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine has produced 30% copper in the first three quarters of 202310,000 tons, the project's comprehensive steady-state production capacity has been increased to 9.2 million tons, and the second and third quarters exceeded the steady-state capacity, producing concentrate containing 10 copper respectively380,000 tons, 10At 390,000 tonnes, the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine will produce approximately 40 percent copper in 2023 based on its production capacity in the second and third quarters50,000 tons. The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Mine Phase 3 concentrator is now 56% complete, as well as a new 5 million tonne concentrator plant, which is scheduled to come on stream in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Kamoa-Kakula copper mine is expected to produce 800,000 tonnes per annum at its peak, making the project the second largest copper complex in the world.
2. Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): the peak of the year may reach 450,000 tonsTenke Fungurume Copper-Cobalt Mine (TFM), a subsidiary of CMOC, is one of the world's largest and highest-grade copper-cobalt mines, covering an area of over 1,500 square kilometers and with copper resources of approximately 24.29 million tonnes and cobalt resources of approximately 2.22 million tonnes. In 2022, TFM copper metal production was 25430,000 tons, cobalt metal output of 2030,000 tons. In October this year, TFM's mixed ore production line in the eastern area successfully achieved the commissioning with materials, and the project plans to build a total of three production lines, namely a 3.5 million tonne mixed ore production line, a 3.3 million tonne oxide ore production line and a 5.6 million tonne mixed ore production line. Once the TFM mixed mine project is completed and reaches production within the year, it is expected to increase the average annual output of copper by about 200,000 tons and the average annual output of cobalt by about 170,000 tons. TFM could peak copper production at 450,000 tonnes and cobalt metal at 3730,000 tons, becoming the world's top ten copper mines and the largest cobalt mine.
3. Okiep copper mine in South Africa: it is expected to reach 3860,000 tons per yearThe Okiep Copper Mine is located in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa, an area that is at the heart of South Africa's historic copper mining district, which ended in 2003. In 2021, Orion Minerals Australia completed a scoping study confirming the economics of developing a foundational phase mining operation. The current mineral resource estimate is 11.5 million tonnes grading 14% for 159,000 tonnes of contained copper. The proof-of-concept foundation phase has a mine life of 12 years and produces 38 copper concentrate per annumThe 60,000-tonne Orion company is currently undertaking a feasibility study and exploration program to further expand the resource stock. 4. Kamoto copper and cobalt mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: 300,000 tons per yearThe Kamoto copper-cobalt mine is located in Katanga province in the DRC and is operated by Kamoto Copper Company (KCC), a 75%-owned subsidiary of Glencore. KCC is Glencore's most important company in Africa and currently the world's largest cobalt producer. KCC's other shareholders include Gécamines (20%) and Simco (5%). Currently, KCC owns two open pit mines (Kov and Mashimamba East) as well as an underground mine (Kamoto concentrator) and the Luili refinery. KCC is targeting 300,000 tonnes of copper and 30,000 tonnes of cobalt per annum. 5. Zambia Sentinel mine: expected to reach 280,000 tons per yearThe fifth largest potential mine is Canadian mining company First Quantum Minerals' Sentinel open pit copper mine in Zambia, Africa, with a assay and indicated resource of 828.2 billion tonnes grading 045% with a reserve of 721.7 billion tonnes grading 046%。It is said to be the largest infrastructure investment in the country since the completion of the Kariba Dam in 1959. The mine produced 24 percent copper in 202224.51 million tons, expected to be 26-280,000 tons in 2023.
According to S&P Global statistics, a total of 228 copper deposits were discovered in the world from 1990 to 2021, of which only 12 were discovered in the past 10 years, with a resource of only 60.5 million tons, accounting for only 5%;The 2017-2021 new discoveries added only 5.6 million tonnes of copper resources. After intensive production in 2023-2025, there are relatively few projects that may be increased after 2025 that can be seen in the market at present, and the copper mine feasibility study + construction period is usually more than 7 years, which means that the copper mine increment from 2026 to 2030 is small. Moreover, most of the existing pipeline projects are small-scale projects, and most of them are still in the early stages, and most of them are expected to be put into production around 2030. As the world's largest copper consumer, it is of great significance for China to ensure the safety of copper resources, and Africa is bound to become an important base and security guarantee for China's copper resources